Mickey Loomis
NO · Composite skill θ = +0.11 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.75 to +0.98
Composite θ
+0.11
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.75–+0.98
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
60%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 153 mapped picks across 24 draft classes, 2002–2025 · 84% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.21
- maturity discount
- -0.02
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2002–2025NOLong-tenured; Saints
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | #108 | Jahri Evans | OFF | +10.61 |
| 2011 | #24 | Cameron Jordan | DEF | +7.37 |
| 2016 | #47 | Michael Thomas | OFF | +6.15 |
| 2017 | #67 | Alvin Kamara | OFF | +5.70 |
| 2008 | #164 | Carl Nicks | OFF | +5.17 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #123 | Al Woods | DEF | -4.87 |
| 2006 | #2 | Reggie Bush | OFF | -4.78 |
| 2014 | #20 | Brandin Cooks | OFF | -4.35 |
| 2009 | #14 | Malcolm Jenkins | DEF | -3.35 |
| 2016 | #12 | Sheldon Rankins | DEF | -3.33 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 153 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2006 | #108 | Jahri Evans | OFF | +2.02 | +2.96 | +0.46 | +4.35 | +1.07 | +3.92 | +8.26 | +10.61 |
| 2011 | #24 | Cameron Jordan | DEF | +2.67 | +3.95 | +3.51 | +3.77 | +0.77 | +3.32 | +0.15 | +7.37 |
| 2016 | #47 | Michael Thomas | OFF | +0.46 | +0.81 | +0.51 | +1.78 | +2.47 | +2.80 | +4.06 | +6.15 |
| 2017 | #67 | Alvin Kamara | OFF | +1.32 | +1.40 | +2.40 | +2.84 | +0.89 | +4.67 | -0.43 | +5.70 |
| 2008 | #164 | Carl Nicks | OFF | +0.90 | +1.24 | — | +1.95 | — | +2.16 | +2.13 | +5.17 |
| 2006 | #252 | Marques Colston | OFF | +2.24 | +2.09 | +1.08 | +3.00 | +0.90 | -0.08 | -0.06 | +3.68 |
| 2017 | #32 | Ryan Ramczyk | OFF | +0.98 | +1.45 | +1.47 | +1.99 | +1.04 | -0.43 | +1.93 | +3.57 |
| 2004 | #18 | Will Smith | DEF | +1.62 | +1.82 | — | +1.33 | — | +0.73 | -0.18 | +3.32 |
| 2002 | #25 | Charles Grant | DEF | +1.39 | +1.75 | — | +1.27 | — | -0.19 | -0.09 | +2.70 |
| 2002 | #44 | LeCharles Bentley | OFF | +0.62 | +0.91 | — | +0.85 | — | +2.15 | -0.02 | +2.67 |
| 2005 | #13 | Jammal Brown | OFF | +0.01 | +0.17 | — | +0.54 | — | +1.94 | +2.00 | +2.60 |
| 2003 | #37 | Jon Stinchcomb | OFF | +0.76 | +0.94 | — | +1.04 | — | +0.88 | -0.13 | +2.27 |
| 2006 | #210 | Zach Strief | OFF | +1.98 | +1.09 | +0.87 | +1.11 | +0.40 | -0.20 | -0.17 | +1.90 |
| 2019 | #48 | Erik McCoy | OFF | +0.70 | +1.18 | +0.37 | +0.64 | -0.18 | +1.78 | -0.20 | +1.77 |
| 2017 | #11 | Marshon Lattimore | DEF | +0.31 | +0.81 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.40 | +2.87 | -1.08 | +1.71 |
| 2004 | #50 | Devery Henderson | OFF | +1.45 | +0.94 | — | +0.68 | — | -0.28 | -0.16 | +1.65 |
| 2013 | #75 | Terron Armstead | OFF | +0.06 | +0.62 | -0.52 | +0.78 | +0.86 | +2.18 | -0.74 | +1.59 |
| 2021 | #60 | Pete Werner | DEF | +0.65 | +0.97 | +0.47 | +0.76 | +0.94 | -0.15 | -0.08 | +1.43 |
| 2010 | #95 | Jimmy Graham | OFF | -0.49 | -0.67 | -1.03 | -0.11 | +2.83 | -0.11 | +1.38 | +1.27 |
| 2025 | #93 | Jonas Sanker | ST | +0.08 | +0.40 | +0.37 | +0.27 | +1.51 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.17 |
| 2021 | #76 | Paulson Adebo | DEF | +0.29 | +0.79 | +0.61 | +0.39 | +0.91 | -0.11 | -0.06 | +1.13 |
| 2012 | #162 | Corey White | DEF | +0.48 | +0.36 | +1.47 | +0.36 | +0.22 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.05 |
| 2004 | #240 | Colby Bockwoldt | DEF | +0.43 | +0.62 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.99 |
| 2006 | #43 | Roman Harper | DEF | +0.93 | +1.34 | -1.15 | +0.52 | -0.48 | +1.56 | -0.50 | +0.92 |
| 2008 | #7 | Sedrick Ellis | DEF | +0.63 | +0.86 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.89 |
| 2022 | #49 | Alontae Taylor | DEF | +0.62 | +0.83 | +1.13 | +0.37 | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.88 |
| 2007 | #125 | Jermon Bushrod | OFF | -0.17 | +0.19 | -0.59 | +0.31 | — | +1.78 | -0.31 | +0.86 |
| 2005 | #40 | Josh Bullocks | DEF | +0.50 | +0.64 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +0.81 |
| 2016 | #120 | David Onyemata | DEF | +0.83 | +0.64 | +0.96 | +0.43 | -0.01 | -0.33 | -0.16 | +0.77 |
| 2021 | #206 | Landon Young | OFF | +0.88 | +0.02 | +0.12 | +0.18 | +0.70 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.76 |
| 2024 | #150 | Spencer Rattler | OFF | +0.40 | +0.58 | +0.65 | +0.39 | -0.12 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.68 |
| 2025 | #248 | Moliki Matavao | OFF | +0.10 | +0.29 | +0.37 | +0.39 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.64 |
| 2004 | #156 | Mike Karney | OFF | +0.98 | +0.91 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.60 |
| 2025 | #40 | Tyler Shough | OFF | +0.06 | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.10 | +0.91 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.59 |
| 2025 | #254 | Fadil Diggs | DEF | +0.14 | +0.31 | +0.62 | +0.22 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.58 |
| 2015 | #154 | Tyeler Davison | DEF | +0.29 | +0.58 | +0.89 | +0.11 | +0.03 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.58 |
| 2010 | #64 | Charles Brown | OFF | -0.07 | -0.19 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.83 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.50 |
| 2023 | #103 | Nick Saldiveri | OFF | -0.04 | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.07 | +1.16 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.47 |
| 2025 | #184 | Devin Neal | OFF | +0.12 | +0.33 | +0.41 | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.45 |
| 2024 | #170 | Bub Means | OFF | +0.08 | +0.24 | +0.46 | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.41 |
| 2022 | #11 | Chris Olave | OFF | +0.17 | +0.12 | +0.09 | +0.18 | +0.64 | -0.27 | -0.11 | +0.35 |
| 2023 | #127 | Jake Haener | OFF | +0.19 | +0.20 | +0.21 | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 2023 | #146 | Jordan Howden | DEF | +0.72 | +0.23 | +0.57 | +0.23 | -0.53 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 2018 | #91 | Tre'Quan Smith | OFF | +0.58 | +0.33 | +0.53 | +0.13 | -0.25 | -0.13 | -0.06 | +0.33 |
| 2002 | #82 | James Allen | DEF | +0.48 | -0.02 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.32 |
| 2024 | #41 | Kool-Aid McKinstry | DEF | +0.10 | +0.28 | +0.27 | +0.06 | +0.13 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.29 |
| 2025 | #131 | Quincy Riley | DEF | +0.19 | +0.21 | +0.44 | +0.19 | -0.20 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.27 |
| 2010 | #239 | Sean Canfield | OFF | -0.01 | +0.18 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 2003 | #231 | Talman Gardner | OFF | +0.25 | +0.13 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 2008 | #178 | Taylor Mehlhaff | ST | -0.35 | +0.25 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2024 | #199 | Khristian Boyd | DEF | +0.04 | +0.12 | +0.07 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2020 | #24 | Cesar Ruiz | OFF | +0.75 | +0.96 | +0.66 | +0.29 | -0.98 | -0.44 | -0.21 | +0.12 |
| 2012 | #122 | Nick Toon | OFF | -0.21 | -0.10 | +0.53 | -0.08 | +0.19 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2023 | #29 | Bryan Bresee | DEF | +0.32 | +0.06 | +0.43 | +0.07 | -0.32 | -0.07 | -0.02 | +0.09 |
| 2005 | #152 | Adrian McPherson | OFF | -0.10 | +0.10 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 2003 | #155 | Melvin Williams | DEF | -0.06 | +0.01 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2002 | #150 | Mel Mitchell | DEF | +0.45 | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2005 | #232 | Jimmy Verdon | DEF | -0.18 | +0.07 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2002 | #125 | Keyuo Craver | DEF | +0.06 | -0.10 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2002 | #224 | Derrius Monroe | DEF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2008 | #237 | Adrian Arrington | OFF | -0.18 | +0.03 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2024 | #239 | Josiah Ezirim | OFF | -0.16 | -0.03 | +0.14 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2015 | #78 | P.J. Williams | DEF | +0.74 | -0.06 | -0.17 | +0.05 | -0.08 | -0.23 | -0.16 | -0.04 |
| 2025 | #112 | Danny Stutsman | DEF | +0.06 | -0.05 | +0.05 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2015 | #230 | Marcus Murphy | OFF | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.26 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2024 | #175 | Jaylan Ford | DEF | +0.26 | -0.02 | -0.05 | +0.03 | -0.23 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2013 | #144 | Kenny Stills | OFF | -0.32 | -0.35 | +0.21 | -0.25 | +0.71 | -0.18 | -0.11 | -0.07 |
| 2007 | #220 | Marvin Mitchell | DEF | +0.52 | -0.37 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| 2023 | #195 | A.T. Perry | OFF | -0.11 | +0.06 | -0.27 | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2019 | #105 | C.J. Gardner-Johnson | DEF | -0.18 | +0.05 | +0.37 | -0.15 | +0.04 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.11 |
| 2003 | #203 | Kareem Kelly | OFF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2005 | #193 | Jason Jefferson | DEF | -0.34 | +0.01 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.13 |
| 2011 | #226 | Greg Romeus | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 2010 | #158 | Matt Tennant | OFF | +0.18 | -0.32 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2006 | #174 | Josh Lay | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2008 | #144 | DeMario Pressley | DEF | -0.31 | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2020 | #105 | Adam Trautman | OFF | -0.05 | +0.07 | +0.14 | -0.09 | -0.35 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0.26 |
| 2020 | #240 | Tommy Stevens | OFF | -0.24 | -0.03 | -0.34 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 2006 | #171 | Mike Hass | OFF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2004 | #60 | Courtney Watson | DEF | -0.27 | -0.08 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2022 | #194 | Jordan Jackson | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | +0.10 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2019 | #244 | Kaden Elliss | DEF | +0.15 | -0.28 | +0.13 | -0.19 | -0.33 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.32 |
| 2004 | #139 | Rodney Leisle | DEF | -0.20 | -0.23 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2011 | #243 | Nate Bussey | DEF | -0.43 | -0.10 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2013 | #183 | Rufus Johnson | DEF | -0.48 | -0.12 | -0.29 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2011 | #88 | Johnny Patrick | DEF | -0.11 | -0.33 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| 2014 | #167 | Vinnie Sunseri | DEF | -0.33 | -0.19 | -0.30 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2016 | #237 | Daniel Lasco | OFF | -0.24 | -0.06 | -0.45 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2025 | #71 | Vernon Broughton | DEF | -0.37 | -0.11 | -0.34 | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.40 |
| 2022 | #161 | D'Marco Jackson | DEF | -0.01 | -0.31 | -0.45 | -0.14 | -0.18 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.44 |
| 2012 | #234 | Marcel Jones | OFF | -0.39 | -0.23 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2017 | #42 | Marcus Williams | DEF | +0.01 | +0.65 | +0.41 | -0.13 | -0.24 | -0.76 | -0.50 | -0.46 |
| 2005 | #118 | Chase Lyman | OFF | -0.50 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2011 | #72 | Martez Wilson | DEF | -0.03 | -0.47 | +0.17 | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.48 |
| 2005 | #82 | Alfred Fincher | DEF | -0.12 | -0.37 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.49 |
| 2015 | #167 | Damian Swann | DEF | -0.40 | -0.16 | -0.63 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2009 | #116 | Chip Vaughn | DEF | -0.57 | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2009 | #118 | Stanley Arnoux | DEF | -0.43 | -0.30 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| 2018 | #245 | Will Clapp | OFF | -0.09 | -0.50 | -0.31 | -0.37 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.58 |
| 2007 | #107 | Antonio Pittman | OFF | -0.59 | -0.17 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.59 |
| 2013 | #15 | Kenny Vaccaro | DEF | -0.05 | +0.34 | +0.49 | -0.34 | -0.43 | -0.56 | -0.40 | -0.61 |
| 2014 | #169 | Ronald Powell | DEF | -0.28 | -0.26 | -0.69 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.61 |
| 2015 | #13 | Andrus Peat | OFF | +0.25 | +0.46 | -0.63 | +0.38 | -0.14 | +0.38 | -1.89 | -0.61 |
| 2012 | #179 | Andrew Tiller | OFF | -0.49 | -0.32 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2023 | #71 | Kendre Miller | OFF | -0.19 | -0.26 | -0.87 | -0.17 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.63 |
| 2003 | #102 | Montrae Holland | OFF | -0.12 | -0.28 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.64 |
| 2003 | #86 | Cie Grant | DEF | -0.50 | -0.34 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 2019 | #231 | Alizé Mack | OFF | -0.60 | -0.25 | -1.21 | +0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 2014 | #202 | Tavon Rooks | OFF | -0.49 | -0.31 | -0.61 | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 2007 | #145 | David Jones | DEF | -0.67 | -0.30 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 2018 | #164 | Natrell Jamerson | DEF | -0.65 | -0.29 | -0.57 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.72 |
| 2015 | #31 | Stephone Anthony | DEF | -0.18 | -0.31 | +0.10 | -0.38 | -0.64 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.73 |
| 2015 | #75 | Garrett Grayson | OFF | -0.49 | -0.29 | -0.67 | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 2018 | #189 | Kamrin Moore | DEF | -0.60 | -0.24 | -0.91 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 2020 | #74 | Zack Baun | DEF | +0.28 | -0.47 | -0.46 | -0.27 | -0.51 | -0.19 | -0.11 | -0.76 |
| 2018 | #201 | Boston Scott | OFF | -0.79 | -0.33 | +0.03 | -0.37 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.79 |
| 2021 | #133 | Ian Book | OFF | -0.45 | -0.21 | -0.98 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.79 |
| 2007 | #27 | Robert Meachem | OFF | +0.63 | -0.33 | -0.59 | +0.03 | -0.94 | -0.32 | -0.17 | -0.81 |
| 2015 | #44 | Hau'oli Kikaha | DEF | -0.37 | -0.44 | -0.01 | -0.43 | -0.52 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.81 |
| 2015 | #148 | Davis Tull | DEF | -0.69 | -0.33 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 2019 | #177 | Saquan Hampton | DEF | -0.53 | -0.29 | -0.93 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 2021 | #255 | Kawaan Baker | OFF | -0.51 | -0.21 | -1.02 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 2024 | #14 | Taliese Fuaga | OFF | -0.13 | -0.14 | +0.05 | -0.33 | -1.13 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.87 |
| 2002 | #186 | J.T. O'Sullivan | OFF | -0.62 | -0.34 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.87 |
| 2007 | #88 | Andy Alleman | OFF | -0.64 | -0.48 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 2012 | #89 | Akiem Hicks | DEF | -0.80 | -0.55 | -0.48 | -0.73 | +0.58 | -0.44 | -0.23 | -1.01 |
| 2016 | #61 | Vonn Bell | DEF | -0.24 | -0.06 | +0.28 | -0.47 | -0.77 | -0.51 | -0.34 | -1.04 |
| 2007 | #66 | Usama Young | DEF | -0.05 | -0.77 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.14 | -0.10 | -1.07 |
| 2003 | #6 | Johnathan Sullivan | DEF | -0.15 | -0.62 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.07 |
| 2014 | #126 | Khairi Fortt | DEF | -0.72 | -0.36 | -1.15 | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.07 |
| 2023 | #40 | Isaiah Foskey | DEF | -0.15 | -0.55 | -0.53 | -0.39 | -0.87 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.08 |
| 2008 | #40 | Tracy Porter | DEF | -0.62 | -0.23 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.34 | -0.25 | -1.11 |
| 2022 | #19 | Trevor Penning | OFF | +0.00 | -0.33 | -0.58 | -0.37 | -0.97 | -0.21 | -0.09 | -1.12 |
| 2018 | #127 | Rick Leonard | OFF | -0.74 | -0.55 | -0.84 | -0.41 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.16 |
| 2014 | #58 | Stanley Jean-Baptiste | DEF | -0.76 | -0.55 | -0.99 | -0.41 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.23 |
| 2017 | #103 | Trey Hendrickson | DEF | -0.59 | -0.72 | -0.68 | -0.58 | -0.36 | -0.40 | -0.28 | -1.47 |
| 2021 | #28 | Payton Turner | DEF | -0.25 | -0.77 | -0.92 | -0.54 | -1.10 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -1.54 |
| 2011 | #28 | Mark Ingram | OFF | +0.50 | -0.10 | -0.42 | +0.69 | +0.19 | -2.50 | -1.61 | -1.63 |
| 2002 | #196 | John Gilmore | OFF | -1.07 | -0.84 | — | -0.71 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -1.75 |
| 2017 | #196 | Al-Quadin Muhammad | DEF | -1.28 | -0.91 | -0.40 | -0.86 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -1.82 |
| 2018 | #14 | Marcus Davenport | DEF | -0.29 | -0.73 | -0.50 | -0.69 | -0.92 | -0.84 | -0.36 | -1.92 |
| 2017 | #76 | Alex Anzalone | DEF | -0.84 | -0.77 | -1.10 | -0.76 | -0.38 | -0.55 | -0.36 | -1.93 |
| 2025 | #9 | Kelvin Banks | OFF | -0.36 | -0.50 | -0.16 | -0.72 | -2.45 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.97 |
| 2009 | #164 | Thomas Morstead | ST | +1.36 | -2.24 | -1.10 | -1.19 | -0.39 | +0.16 | -1.28 | -2.01 |
| 2006 | #135 | Rob Ninkovich | DEF | -1.67 | -1.24 | — | -1.23 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | -2.83 |
| 2002 | #13 | Donte' Stallworth | OFF | -0.87 | -1.07 | — | -0.94 | — | -1.21 | -0.79 | -2.91 |
| 2010 | #32 | Patrick Robinson | DEF | -0.15 | -0.76 | -1.65 | -0.95 | -1.49 | -1.00 | -0.77 | -2.95 |
| 2013 | #82 | John Jenkins | DEF | -1.30 | -1.32 | -1.11 | -1.50 | -0.96 | -0.97 | -0.55 | -3.23 |
| 2016 | #12 | Sheldon Rankins | DEF | -0.69 | -1.09 | -0.74 | -1.17 | -1.34 | -1.65 | -0.81 | -3.33 |
| 2009 | #14 | Malcolm Jenkins | DEF | -0.28 | +0.16 | -0.67 | -0.55 | -0.62 | -2.63 | -2.37 | -3.35 |
| 2014 | #20 | Brandin Cooks | OFF | -1.31 | -1.28 | -0.70 | -1.13 | -0.37 | -3.11 | -1.89 | -4.35 |
| 2006 | #2 | Reggie Bush | OFF | -0.89 | -1.20 | — | -0.99 | — | -2.92 | -2.58 | -4.78 |
| 2010 | #123 | Al Woods | DEF | -2.55 | -1.96 | — | -2.09 | — | -0.63 | -0.41 | -4.87 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.