Chip Kelly
PHI · Composite skill θ = -0.46 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.16 to +0.24
Evidence: 6 mapped picks across 1 draft classes, 2015–2015 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2015–2015PHICoach with personnel power
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #237 | Brian Mihalik | DEF | -0.15 |
| 2015 | #191 | JaCorey Shepherd | DEF | -0.46 |
| 2015 | #196 | Randall Evans | DEF | -0.53 |
| 2015 | #84 | Jordan Hicks | DEF | -1.08 |
| 2015 | #20 | Nelson Agholor | OFF | -2.57 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #47 | Eric Rowe | DEF | -3.03 |
| 2015 | #20 | Nelson Agholor | OFF | -2.57 |
| 2015 | #84 | Jordan Hicks | DEF | -1.08 |
| 2015 | #196 | Randall Evans | DEF | -0.53 |
| 2015 | #191 | JaCorey Shepherd | DEF | -0.46 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 6 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2015 | #237 | Brian Mihalik | DEF | -0.43 | -0.08 | +0.22 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2015 | #191 | JaCorey Shepherd | DEF | -0.52 | -0.17 | -0.36 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2015 | #196 | Randall Evans | DEF | -0.49 | -0.16 | -0.63 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2015 | #84 | Jordan Hicks | DEF | -0.87 | -0.33 | -0.31 | -0.38 | +0.25 | -0.60 | -0.43 | -1.08 |
| 2015 | #20 | Nelson Agholor | OFF | -0.41 | -0.12 | +0.36 | -0.89 | -1.51 | -1.71 | -0.94 | -2.57 |
| 2015 | #47 | Eric Rowe | DEF | -1.37 | -1.23 | -0.71 | -1.15 | -1.75 | -0.56 | -0.38 | -3.03 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.