Mike Shanahan
DEN · Composite skill θ = +0.34 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.20 to +0.87
Composite θ
+0.34
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.20–+0.87
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
89%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 111 mapped picks across 14 draft classes, 1995–2008 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.20
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1995–2008DENHC with final say throughout
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | #196 | Terrell Davis | OFF | +7.90 |
| 1999 | #31 | Al Wilson | DEF | +7.73 |
| 2008 | #12 | Ryan Clady | OFF | +4.17 |
| 1997 | #28 | Trevor Pryce | DEF | +3.50 |
| 2006 | #126 | Elvis Dumervil | DEF | +3.47 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #120 | Nick Harris | ST | -3.08 |
| 1999 | #158 | David Bowens | DEF | -2.86 |
| 1996 | #44 | Tory James | DEF | -2.84 |
| 2003 | #114 | Nick Eason | DEF | -2.42 |
| 2006 | #11 | Jay Cutler | OFF | -2.32 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 111 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1995 | #196 | Terrell Davis | OFF | +1.16 | +1.88 | — | +3.18 | — | -0.03 | +6.43 | +7.90 |
| 1999 | #31 | Al Wilson | DEF | +1.52 | +2.09 | — | +2.29 | — | +5.26 | +2.00 | +7.73 |
| 2008 | #12 | Ryan Clady | OFF | +0.51 | +0.85 | -0.63 | +1.31 | +0.20 | +2.53 | +3.81 | +4.17 |
| 1997 | #28 | Trevor Pryce | DEF | +0.12 | +0.80 | — | +0.81 | — | +3.07 | +1.38 | +3.50 |
| 2006 | #126 | Elvis Dumervil | DEF | +0.20 | +0.61 | — | +0.56 | — | +3.01 | +1.99 | +3.47 |
| 1997 | #67 | Dan Neil | OFF | +1.36 | +1.84 | — | +1.69 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +3.20 |
| 1996 | #15 | John Mobley | DEF | +0.92 | +1.39 | — | +1.20 | — | -0.30 | +1.93 | +3.18 |
| 2001 | #113 | Ben Hamilton | OFF | +1.14 | +1.62 | — | +1.47 | — | -0.17 | -0.12 | +2.70 |
| 2000 | #189 | Mike Anderson | OFF | +0.84 | +0.95 | — | +1.10 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.96 |
| 2006 | #161 | Chris Kuper | OFF | +1.14 | +1.39 | +0.30 | +1.03 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.92 |
| 2000 | #40 | Ian Gold | DEF | +0.94 | +0.73 | — | +0.62 | — | +0.91 | -0.13 | +1.85 |
| 2007 | #121 | Marcus Thomas | DEF | +1.32 | +0.78 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.61 |
| 2002 | #231 | Monsanto Pope | DEF | +0.91 | +0.67 | — | +0.64 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.43 |
| 1998 | #91 | Brian Griese | OFF | -0.21 | +0.26 | — | +0.72 | — | +0.91 | -0.04 | +1.18 |
| 2002 | #131 | Sam Brandon | DEF | +1.07 | +0.22 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.00 |
| 1999 | #127 | Olandis Gary | OFF | +0.38 | +0.37 | — | +0.52 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.88 |
| 1998 | #61 | Eric Brown | DEF | +0.22 | +0.73 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +0.75 |
| 2005 | #239 | Paul Ernster | ST | +0.15 | +0.38 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.73 |
| 2004 | #41 | Tatum Bell | OFF | +0.38 | +0.01 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.60 |
| 2000 | #45 | Kenoy Kennedy | DEF | +0.42 | +0.63 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.14 | -0.10 | +0.57 |
| 1996 | #236 | Brian Gragert | ST | -0.25 | +0.42 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.48 |
| 2004 | #250 | Bradlee Van Pelt | OFF | +0.15 | +0.27 | — | +0.22 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 2000 | #214 | Jarious Jackson | OFF | +0.17 | +0.27 | — | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 2002 | #191 | Jeb Putzier | OFF | +0.22 | -0.11 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.41 |
| 2002 | #228 | Chris Young | DEF | +0.24 | +0.06 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 2004 | #225 | Matt Mauck | OFF | +0.04 | +0.24 | — | +0.19 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 |
| 2002 | #19 | Ashley Lelie | OFF | +0.25 | +0.01 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | +0.33 |
| 2004 | #17 | D.J. Williams | DEF | +0.78 | +1.17 | — | +0.35 | — | -1.14 | -0.92 | +0.30 |
| 2003 | #20 | George Foster | OFF | +0.07 | +0.13 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | +0.24 |
| 2008 | #220 | Josh Barrett | DEF | +0.14 | +0.07 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.24 |
| 2005 | #56 | Darrent Williams | DEF | -0.07 | +0.21 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.22 |
| 2008 | #183 | Spencer Larsen | DEF | +0.53 | +0.10 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.20 |
| 1999 | #238 | Justin Swift | OFF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 1996 | #226 | Chris Banks | OFF | +0.22 | -0.08 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 1996 | #181 | Tony Veland | DEF | -0.04 | +0.01 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 1995 | #121 | Jamie Brown | OFF | +0.22 | -0.20 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2000 | #246 | Leroy Fields | OFF | -0.21 | +0.11 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2003 | #108 | Quentin Griffin | OFF | -0.16 | +0.02 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2003 | #227 | Clint Mitchell | DEF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 1996 | #100 | Jeff Lewis | OFF | -0.08 | +0.00 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1996 | #235 | L.T. Levine | OFF | -0.26 | +0.15 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.00 |
| 2005 | #76 | Karl Paymah | DEF | +0.61 | -0.36 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| 2004 | #247 | Brandon Miree | OFF | -0.27 | +0.13 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2003 | #235 | Ahmaad Galloway | OFF | -0.28 | +0.13 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2003 | #194 | Aaron Hunt | DEF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 1999 | #204 | Chad Plummer | OFF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 1999 | #93 | Travis McGriff | OFF | +0.29 | -0.20 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2004 | #152 | Jeff Shoate | DEF | -0.09 | -0.08 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2002 | #51 | Clinton Portis | OFF | -0.86 | -0.41 | — | +0.24 | — | +0.77 | -0.19 | -0.10 |
| 2004 | #171 | Triandos Luke | OFF | -0.13 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2005 | #97 | Domonique Foxworth | DEF | +0.14 | -0.09 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| 2003 | #158 | Adrian Madise | OFF | -0.12 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2006 | #61 | Tony Scheffler | OFF | +0.01 | -0.21 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.13 |
| 2008 | #119 | Jack Williams | DEF | -0.04 | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1999 | #167 | Darwin Brown | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1995 | #218 | Steve Russ | DEF | +0.03 | -0.18 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1995 | #222 | Byron Chamberlain | OFF | +0.64 | -0.70 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.17 |
| 2001 | #190 | Kevin Kasper | OFF | -0.17 | -0.03 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2000 | #70 | Chris Cole | OFF | +0.23 | -0.25 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1998 | #200 | Trey Teague | OFF | -0.09 | -0.13 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.24 |
| 1996 | #213 | Leslie Ratliffe | OFF | -0.29 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 1998 | #153 | Chris Howard | OFF | -0.41 | +0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2000 | #154 | Muneer Moore | OFF | -0.38 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2002 | #144 | Herb Haygood | OFF | -0.32 | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1996 | #65 | Detron Smith | OFF | +0.93 | -0.75 | — | -0.78 | — | +0.94 | -0.09 | -0.27 |
| 2002 | #96 | Dorsett Davis | DEF | -0.20 | -0.20 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2000 | #101 | Jerry Johnson | DEF | -0.30 | -0.17 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2008 | #227 | Peyton Hillis | OFF | -0.12 | -0.06 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.29 |
| 2006 | #119 | Brandon Marshall | OFF | -0.78 | -0.46 | — | -0.30 | — | +1.63 | -0.41 | -0.31 |
| 1997 | #124 | Cory Gilliard | DEF | -0.46 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2003 | #128 | Bryant McNeal | DEF | -0.46 | -0.11 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.33 |
| 2008 | #148 | Carlton Powell | DEF | -0.47 | -0.11 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1995 | #182 | Fritz Fequiere | OFF | -0.34 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2004 | #190 | Josh Sewell | OFF | -0.36 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1998 | #122 | Curtis Alexander | OFF | -0.48 | -0.06 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2006 | #198 | Greg Eslinger | OFF | -0.36 | -0.20 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1996 | #159 | Patrick Jeffers | OFF | -0.22 | -0.19 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1999 | #67 | Chris Watson | DEF | -0.30 | -0.30 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1996 | #122 | Darrius Johnson | DEF | +0.40 | -0.55 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.42 |
| 2008 | #139 | Ryan Torain | OFF | -0.47 | -0.06 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1995 | #146 | Phil Yeboah-Kodie | DEF | -0.49 | -0.14 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2004 | #54 | Darius Watts | OFF | -0.18 | -0.36 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.49 |
| 1995 | #124 | Ken Brown | DEF | -0.50 | -0.19 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2001 | #24 | Willie Middlebrooks | DEF | +0.36 | -0.63 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.57 |
| 2005 | #101 | Maurice Clarett | OFF | -0.58 | -0.16 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1996 | #78 | Mark Campbell | DEF | -0.59 | -0.25 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2007 | #56 | Tim Crowder | DEF | -0.27 | -0.40 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2000 | #15 | Deltha O'Neal | DEF | -0.28 | -0.56 | — | -0.37 | — | +0.68 | -0.32 | -0.61 |
| 2004 | #85 | Jeremy LeSueur | DEF | -0.61 | -0.28 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 2001 | #87 | Reggie Hayward | DEF | -0.25 | -0.42 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.64 |
| 2008 | #42 | Eddie Royal | OFF | -0.26 | -0.03 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.40 | -0.22 | -0.75 |
| 2007 | #70 | Ryan Harris | OFF | -0.24 | -0.09 | -0.16 | -0.21 | -0.47 | -0.37 | -0.24 | -0.80 |
| 2003 | #51 | Terry Pierce | DEF | -0.37 | -0.52 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| 2001 | #51 | Paul Toviessi | DEF | -0.70 | -0.41 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.89 |
| 1998 | #219 | Nate Wayne | DEF | -0.57 | -0.55 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -1.08 |
| 1998 | #30 | Marcus Nash | OFF | -0.56 | -0.56 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.09 |
| 2007 | #17 | Jarvis Moss | DEF | -0.14 | -0.80 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.16 |
| 2005 | #200 | Chris Myers | OFF | -0.40 | -0.66 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.10 | -0.08 | -1.18 |
| 2003 | #157 | Ben Claxton | OFF | -0.81 | -0.60 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.21 |
| 1999 | #61 | Lennie Friedman | OFF | -0.70 | -0.66 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.20 | -0.13 | -1.44 |
| 2006 | #130 | Domenik Hixon | OFF | -0.99 | -0.67 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.53 |
| 1999 | #218 | Billy Miller | OFF | -0.83 | -0.90 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -1.56 |
| 2000 | #112 | Cooper Carlisle | OFF | +0.05 | -0.83 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.47 | -0.37 | -1.57 |
| 1999 | #58 | Montae Reagor | DEF | -0.40 | -1.06 | — | -0.78 | — | -0.15 | -0.07 | -1.62 |
| 1999 | #179 | Desmond Clark | OFF | -0.90 | -1.21 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.20 | -0.13 | -1.98 |
| 2008 | #108 | Kory Lichtensteiger | OFF | -1.02 | -1.15 | — | -0.97 | — | -0.17 | -0.11 | -2.20 |
| 2006 | #11 | Jay Cutler | OFF | -1.30 | -1.07 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.17 | -0.29 | -2.32 |
| 2003 | #114 | Nick Eason | DEF | -1.54 | -1.07 | — | -1.02 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -2.42 |
| 1996 | #44 | Tory James | DEF | -0.85 | -1.43 | — | -1.28 | — | -0.48 | -0.37 | -2.84 |
| 1999 | #158 | David Bowens | DEF | -1.49 | -1.35 | — | -1.31 | — | -0.16 | -0.10 | -2.86 |
| 2001 | #120 | Nick Harris | ST | -2.00 | -1.14 | — | -1.20 | — | -0.30 | -0.31 | -3.08 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.