Bart Starr
GB · Composite skill θ = -0.50 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.33 to +0.34
Evidence: 25 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 1980–1983 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.15
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1983GBHC + de facto GM through 1983; HOF QB era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | #98 | Robert Brown | DEF | +2.85 |
| 1980 | #143 | Karl Swanke | OFF | +1.72 |
| 1980 | #34 | Mark Lee | DEF | +1.10 |
| 1983 | #188 | Jessie Clark | OFF | +0.53 |
| 1981 | #117 | Byron Braggs | DEF | +0.39 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | #4 | Bruce Clark | DEF | -5.72 |
| 1981 | #6 | Rich Campbell | OFF | -1.92 |
| 1980 | #169 | Buddy Aydelette | OFF | -1.73 |
| 1982 | #71 | Del Rodgers | OFF | -1.31 |
| 1983 | #104 | Mike Miller | OFF | -0.71 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 25 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1982 | #98 | Robert Brown | DEF | +2.04 | +1.69 | — | +1.25 | — | -0.36 | -0.16 | +2.85 |
| 1980 | #143 | Karl Swanke | OFF | +1.03 | +0.93 | — | +0.79 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.72 |
| 1980 | #34 | Mark Lee | DEF | +1.31 | +1.81 | — | +0.93 | — | -1.71 | -1.06 | +1.10 |
| 1983 | #188 | Jessie Clark | OFF | +0.38 | +0.41 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.53 |
| 1981 | #117 | Byron Braggs | DEF | +0.36 | +0.14 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 1983 | #11 | Tim Lewis | DEF | +0.14 | +0.15 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | +0.07 |
| 1981 | #172 | Bill Whitaker | DEF | +0.09 | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1980 | #26 | George Cumby | DEF | +0.22 | +0.22 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.50 | -0.26 | -0.12 |
| 1981 | #105 | Richard Turner | DEF | +0.06 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1981 | #62 | Ray Stachowicz | ST | -0.23 | -0.16 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.17 |
| 1982 | #126 | Mike Meade | OFF | -0.18 | +0.03 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1982 | #22 | Ron Hallstrom | OFF | +1.39 | +1.10 | — | +0.23 | — | -2.17 | -1.20 | -0.21 |
| 1980 | #61 | Syd Kitson | OFF | +0.33 | -0.36 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| 1982 | #183 | Joey Whitley | DEF | -0.48 | -0.11 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1983 | #48 | Dave Drechsler | OFF | -0.08 | -0.31 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| 1983 | #132 | Bryan Thomas | OFF | -0.58 | -0.13 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1980 | #87 | Fred Nixon | OFF | -0.18 | -0.35 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.61 |
| 1983 | #160 | Ron Sams | OFF | -0.44 | -0.32 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1982 | #152 | Chet Parlavecchio | DEF | -0.55 | -0.24 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1981 | #35 | Gary Lewis | OFF | +0.07 | -0.62 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.67 |
| 1983 | #104 | Mike Miller | OFF | -0.63 | -0.26 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1982 | #71 | Del Rodgers | OFF | -0.63 | -0.71 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.16 | -0.07 | -1.31 |
| 1980 | #169 | Buddy Aydelette | OFF | -0.94 | -0.89 | — | -0.75 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.73 |
| 1981 | #6 | Rich Campbell | OFF | -0.67 | -1.00 | — | -1.02 | — | -0.10 | -0.02 | -1.92 |
| 1980 | #4 | Bruce Clark | DEF | -2.24 | -2.19 | — | -2.32 | — | -1.62 | -0.76 | -5.72 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.