Art Modell/staff
CLE · Composite skill θ = -0.02 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.80 to +0.76
Evidence: 30 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 1980–1984 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.09
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1984CLEOwner-driven era; Bill Davis as VP Player Personnel; pre-Accorsi
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #22 | Hanford Dixon | DEF | +7.07 |
| 1983 | #68 | Reggie Camp | DEF | +1.96 |
| 1981 | #187 | Eddie Johnson | DEF | +1.94 |
| 1982 | #115 | Mike Baab | OFF | +1.65 |
| 1984 | #104 | Brian Brennan | OFF | +1.19 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | #72 | Cliff Odom | DEF | -6.55 |
| 1983 | #41 | Ron Brown | OFF | -3.12 |
| 1980 | #27 | Charles White | OFF | -2.32 |
| 1980 | #54 | Cleveland Crosby | DEF | -1.19 |
| 1984 | #50 | Bruce Davis | OFF | -0.93 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 30 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1981 | #22 | Hanford Dixon | DEF | +1.31 | +1.98 | — | +2.15 | — | +2.62 | +3.92 | +7.07 |
| 1983 | #68 | Reggie Camp | DEF | +0.75 | +1.34 | — | +0.95 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.96 |
| 1981 | #187 | Eddie Johnson | DEF | +1.97 | +0.83 | — | +0.69 | — | -0.17 | -0.12 | +1.94 |
| 1982 | #115 | Mike Baab | OFF | +0.85 | +1.40 | — | +0.85 | — | -0.42 | -0.24 | +1.65 |
| 1984 | #104 | Brian Brennan | OFF | +1.40 | -0.22 | — | +0.74 | — | -0.19 | -0.09 | +1.19 |
| 1980 | #109 | Paul McDonald | OFF | +1.28 | +0.11 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.06 | -0.01 | +0.89 |
| 1983 | #149 | Dave Puzzuoli | DEF | +1.33 | -0.08 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 1984 | #96 | Rickey Bolden | OFF | +0.65 | +0.30 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.57 |
| 1982 | #162 | Mike Whitwell | DEF | +0.09 | +0.30 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.43 |
| 1984 | #48 | Chris Rockins | DEF | +0.62 | -0.03 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.32 |
| 1984 | #158 | Terry Nugent | OFF | -0.16 | +0.07 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1980 | #116 | Elvis Franks | DEF | +0.72 | -0.40 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.07 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| 1983 | #145 | Tim Stracka | OFF | -0.12 | -0.18 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1981 | #92 | Mike Robinson | DEF | -0.27 | -0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1982 | #3 | Chip Banks | DEF | -0.75 | -0.48 | — | -0.23 | — | +1.48 | -0.18 | -0.19 |
| 1983 | #176 | Rocky Belk | OFF | -0.21 | -0.09 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1984 | #190 | Jim Dumont | DEF | -0.22 | -0.14 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1983 | #122 | Bill Contz | OFF | +0.08 | -0.33 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 1984 | #18 | Don Rogers | DEF | -0.26 | -0.02 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.40 |
| 1981 | #160 | Ron Simmons | DEF | -0.53 | -0.14 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1981 | #134 | Steve Cox | ST | -0.05 | -0.44 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.49 |
| 1982 | #87 | Dwight Walker | OFF | -0.05 | -0.44 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.54 |
| 1980 | #99 | Ron Crews | DEF | -0.31 | -0.32 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1982 | #31 | Keith Baldwin | DEF | -0.11 | -0.32 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.17 | -0.06 | -0.66 |
| 1984 | #131 | Dave Piepkorn | OFF | -0.56 | -0.37 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 1984 | #50 | Bruce Davis | OFF | -0.47 | -0.47 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 1980 | #54 | Cleveland Crosby | DEF | -0.87 | -0.53 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -1.19 |
| 1980 | #27 | Charles White | OFF | -0.68 | -0.76 | — | -0.88 | — | -1.00 | -0.44 | -2.32 |
| 1983 | #41 | Ron Brown | OFF | -1.69 | -1.31 | — | -1.28 | — | -0.47 | -0.21 | -3.12 |
| 1980 | #72 | Cliff Odom | DEF | -2.69 | -2.29 | — | -2.41 | — | -1.96 | -1.35 | -6.55 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.