Steve Gutman / Pat Kirwan
NYJ · Composite skill θ = -0.62 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.46 to +0.22
Evidence: 14 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 1995–1996 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.47
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1995–1996NYJPre-Parcells transitional front office
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #210 | Chris Hayes | DEF | +0.72 |
| 1995 | #142 | Carl Greenwood | DEF | +0.15 |
| 1996 | #133 | Marcus Coleman | DEF | +0.07 |
| 1995 | #217 | Curtis Ceaser | OFF | +0.00 |
| 1996 | #168 | Hugh Hunter | DEF | -0.12 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | #9 | Kyle Brady | OFF | -5.16 |
| 1996 | #1 | Keyshawn Johnson | OFF | -3.17 |
| 1995 | #16 | Hugh Douglas | DEF | -2.29 |
| 1995 | #107 | Tyrone Davis | OFF | -1.37 |
| 1995 | #178 | Eddie Mason | DEF | -1.23 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 14 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #210 | Chris Hayes | DEF | +1.21 | -0.05 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.72 |
| 1995 | #142 | Carl Greenwood | DEF | +0.16 | -0.02 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 1996 | #133 | Marcus Coleman | DEF | +0.49 | +0.08 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.17 | -0.15 | +0.07 |
| 1995 | #217 | Curtis Ceaser | OFF | -0.16 | +0.08 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1996 | #168 | Hugh Hunter | DEF | -0.35 | +0.01 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 1996 | #62 | Ray Mickens | DEF | +1.12 | -0.43 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.36 | -0.29 | -0.39 |
| 1995 | #106 | Melvin Hayes | OFF | -0.42 | -0.35 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1996 | #31 | Alex Van Dyke | OFF | +0.07 | -0.55 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 1995 | #33 | Matt O'Dwyer | OFF | -0.40 | -0.29 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.47 | -0.29 | -1.19 |
| 1995 | #178 | Eddie Mason | DEF | -0.67 | -0.61 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.23 |
| 1995 | #107 | Tyrone Davis | OFF | -1.02 | -0.75 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.37 |
| 1995 | #16 | Hugh Douglas | DEF | -0.99 | -0.93 | — | -0.96 | — | -0.49 | -0.25 | -2.29 |
| 1996 | #1 | Keyshawn Johnson | OFF | -0.69 | -0.70 | — | -1.07 | — | -0.94 | -1.88 | -3.17 |
| 1995 | #9 | Kyle Brady | OFF | -1.25 | -1.00 | — | -2.09 | — | -2.37 | -1.51 | -5.16 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.