Ozzie Newsome
BAL · Composite skill θ = +0.57 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.16 to +0.97
Composite θ
+0.57
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.16–+0.97
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
100%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 192 mapped picks across 23 draft classes, 1996–2018 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.02
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1996–2018BALFirst Black GM in NFL; HOF
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #26 | Ray Lewis | DEF | +18.92 |
| 2002 | #24 | Ed Reed | DEF | +14.81 |
| 1996 | #4 | Jonathan Ogden | OFF | +11.92 |
| 2018 | #32 | Lamar Jackson | OFF | +10.15 |
| 2007 | #86 | Marshal Yanda | OFF | +8.29 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #105 | Brandon Stokley | OFF | -4.62 |
| 2011 | #180 | Tyrod Taylor | OFF | -4.16 |
| 2005 | #213 | Derek Anderson | OFF | -3.68 |
| 2000 | #75 | Chris Redman | OFF | -2.98 |
| 2015 | #26 | Breshad Perriman | OFF | -2.78 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 192 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #26 | Ray Lewis | DEF | +1.82 | +3.12 | — | +6.27 | — | +8.73 | +11.63 | +18.92 |
| 2002 | #24 | Ed Reed | DEF | +1.49 | +2.38 | — | +3.55 | — | +8.79 | +9.86 | +14.81 |
| 1996 | #4 | Jonathan Ogden | OFF | +1.75 | +2.23 | — | +2.66 | — | +7.74 | +6.81 | +11.92 |
| 2018 | #32 | Lamar Jackson | OFF | +1.44 | +1.78 | +1.40 | +4.43 | +2.51 | +3.91 | +6.38 | +10.15 |
| 2007 | #86 | Marshal Yanda | OFF | +1.90 | +2.57 | +0.51 | +3.05 | +1.86 | +4.66 | +3.69 | +8.29 |
| 2018 | #86 | Mark Andrews | OFF | +1.43 | +0.75 | +0.96 | +1.89 | +3.29 | +2.92 | +1.99 | +6.09 |
| 2017 | #16 | Marlon Humphrey | DEF | +1.17 | +1.36 | +1.43 | +1.45 | +1.24 | +3.07 | +3.41 | +5.91 |
| 2000 | #186 | Adalius Thomas | DEF | +0.87 | +1.06 | — | +1.54 | — | +2.10 | +2.07 | +4.59 |
| 1999 | #10 | Chris McAlister | DEF | +1.02 | +1.45 | — | +1.57 | — | +2.25 | +1.26 | +4.57 |
| 2006 | #12 | Haloti Ngata | DEF | +0.53 | +1.23 | -1.08 | +2.23 | +0.24 | +2.44 | +3.11 | +4.23 |
| 2008 | #55 | Ray Rice | OFF | +1.25 | +1.64 | +0.64 | +2.45 | -1.78 | +3.18 | -0.05 | +3.07 |
| 2013 | #94 | Brandon Williams | DEF | +1.24 | +1.90 | +0.83 | +1.52 | +1.33 | +0.78 | -0.16 | +3.05 |
| 2007 | #137 | Le'Ron McClain | OFF | +0.62 | +1.06 | — | +0.07 | — | +2.13 | +2.11 | +3.03 |
| 1997 | #4 | Peter Boulware | DEF | +1.13 | +0.89 | — | +0.97 | — | +2.59 | -0.62 | +2.96 |
| 1996 | #153 | Jermaine Lewis | OFF | +0.93 | +0.07 | — | +0.20 | — | +1.02 | +2.10 | +2.26 |
| 1999 | #129 | Edwin Mulitalo | OFF | +1.06 | +1.62 | — | +0.76 | — | -0.14 | -0.10 | +1.98 |
| 2003 | #109 | Jarret Johnson | DEF | +1.45 | +1.14 | — | +0.85 | — | -0.28 | -0.16 | +1.92 |
| 2001 | #31 | Todd Heap | OFF | +0.84 | +1.52 | — | +0.45 | — | +1.11 | -0.61 | +1.88 |
| 2009 | #88 | Lardarius Webb | DEF | +1.60 | +1.33 | +0.70 | +0.90 | +0.36 | -0.19 | -0.14 | +1.67 |
| 2001 | #126 | Ed Hartwell | DEF | +0.81 | +0.90 | — | +0.82 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +1.66 |
| 2018 | #83 | Orlando Brown Jr. | OFF | -0.32 | -0.07 | +0.40 | +0.30 | +1.17 | +1.82 | -0.20 | +1.54 |
| 2012 | #236 | DeAngelo Tyson | DEF | +0.45 | +0.14 | +1.16 | +0.27 | +1.29 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.35 |
| 2000 | #5 | Jamal Lewis | OFF | +0.12 | +0.45 | — | +0.49 | — | -0.25 | +1.16 | +1.23 |
| 2002 | #209 | Chad Williams | DEF | +1.25 | +0.17 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.18 |
| 2002 | #52 | Anthony Weaver | DEF | +0.28 | +0.74 | — | +0.67 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.13 |
| 2017 | #186 | Chuck Clark | DEF | +0.92 | +0.80 | +1.17 | +0.40 | +0.24 | -0.17 | -0.13 | +1.13 |
| 2010 | #157 | Arthur Jones | DEF | +0.03 | -0.10 | +0.61 | +0.03 | +1.95 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +1.13 |
| 1997 | #194 | Cornell Brown | DEF | +1.64 | +0.11 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.12 |
| 2002 | #155 | Terry Jones | OFF | +0.67 | +0.73 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.05 |
| 2016 | #146 | Matt Judon | DEF | +0.17 | +0.18 | +0.62 | +0.49 | +1.38 | -0.26 | -0.14 | +1.05 |
| 2006 | #146 | Dawan Landry | DEF | +0.32 | +0.93 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | +0.92 |
| 2001 | #62 | Gary Baxter | DEF | +0.44 | +0.74 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.89 |
| 2012 | #35 | Courtney Upshaw | DEF | +0.34 | +0.48 | +0.53 | +0.30 | +0.78 | -0.14 | -0.09 | +0.87 |
| 1997 | #34 | Jamie Sharper | DEF | +0.24 | +0.83 | — | +0.59 | — | -0.31 | -0.22 | +0.86 |
| 2013 | #168 | Ricky Wagner | OFF | +0.36 | +0.41 | +1.01 | +0.29 | +0.28 | -0.10 | -0.06 | +0.80 |
| 2018 | #215 | Bradley Bozeman | OFF | +0.33 | +0.44 | +0.96 | +0.29 | +0.31 | -0.12 | -0.08 | +0.78 |
| 2001 | #194 | Joe Maese | OFF | +1.17 | -0.16 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.77 |
| 2005 | #124 | Jason Brown | OFF | +0.40 | +0.56 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.77 |
| 2016 | #6 | Ronnie Stanley | OFF | +0.62 | +0.94 | +0.08 | +0.94 | -0.11 | -0.66 | +0.21 | +0.75 |
| 2010 | #114 | Dennis Pitta | OFF | +0.56 | -0.01 | +0.20 | +0.43 | +0.61 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.71 |
| 2008 | #206 | Haruki Nakamura | DEF | +0.99 | -0.03 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.68 |
| 2016 | #104 | Tavon Young | DEF | +0.27 | +0.10 | -0.21 | +0.22 | +1.10 | -0.07 | -0.05 | +0.65 |
| 1997 | #236 | Ralph Staten | DEF | +0.37 | +0.25 | — | +0.30 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.61 |
| 2005 | #22 | Mark Clayton | OFF | +0.54 | +0.56 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.20 | -0.11 | +0.61 |
| 2018 | #118 | Anthony Averett | DEF | +0.31 | +0.19 | +0.30 | +0.16 | +0.62 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.61 |
| 2015 | #125 | Javorius Allen | OFF | +0.63 | -0.08 | +1.23 | +0.34 | -0.30 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.57 |
| 1996 | #55 | DeRon Jenkins | DEF | +0.64 | +0.26 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.54 |
| 2003 | #10 | Terrell Suggs | DEF | +1.70 | +2.42 | -1.76 | +2.63 | +0.38 | +0.91 | -4.42 | +0.52 |
| 2010 | #57 | Terrence Cody | DEF | +0.61 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 2006 | #166 | Quinn Sypniewski | OFF | +0.29 | +0.22 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.50 |
| 2008 | #86 | Tom Zbikowski | DEF | +0.64 | +0.07 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.48 |
| 2003 | #182 | Gerome Sapp | DEF | +0.57 | +0.01 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.46 |
| 2006 | #111 | Demetrius Williams | OFF | +0.53 | -0.08 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.45 |
| 2007 | #29 | Ben Grubbs | OFF | +0.07 | +0.36 | — | +0.06 | — | +0.63 | -0.29 | +0.44 |
| 2014 | #218 | Michael Campanaro | OFF | +0.14 | -0.09 | -0.09 | +0.08 | +0.83 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 1997 | #234 | Wally Richardson | OFF | +0.11 | +0.28 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 1996 | #238 | Jon Stark | OFF | +0.09 | +0.29 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 2007 | #174 | Troy Smith | OFF | +0.26 | +0.18 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.41 |
| 2004 | #199 | Clarence Moore | OFF | +0.38 | +0.24 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 2011 | #58 | Torrey Smith | OFF | +0.16 | +0.70 | +0.54 | +0.37 | -0.13 | -0.25 | -0.13 | +0.40 |
| 2002 | #236 | Wes Pate | OFF | +0.08 | +0.27 | — | +0.22 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.39 |
| 2002 | #195 | Lamont Brightful | DEF | +0.35 | +0.01 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 1996 | #186 | James Roe | OFF | +0.25 | +0.23 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 2015 | #171 | Nick Boyle | OFF | +0.97 | +0.68 | +0.69 | -0.04 | -0.71 | -0.12 | -0.06 | +0.32 |
| 2011 | #123 | Tandon Doss | OFF | +0.27 | -0.17 | +0.87 | -0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 2005 | #158 | Justin Green | OFF | +0.51 | +0.18 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2007 | #207 | Prescott Burgess | DEF | +0.54 | -0.09 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 2004 | #187 | Josh Harris | OFF | -0.02 | +0.18 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 1998 | #241 | Cam Quayle | OFF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 2004 | #246 | Brian Rimpf | OFF | +0.13 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 1997 | #58 | Kim Herring | DEF | +0.02 | +0.28 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | +0.18 |
| 2012 | #84 | Bernard Pierce | OFF | +0.35 | -0.24 | +0.48 | +0.11 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.18 |
| 2003 | #77 | Musa Smith | OFF | +0.55 | -0.21 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.16 |
| 2016 | #130 | Alex Lewis | OFF | -0.20 | +0.00 | +0.48 | -0.01 | +0.21 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.16 |
| 1999 | #216 | Anthony Poindexter | DEF | -0.03 | +0.06 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2014 | #175 | John Urschel | OFF | +0.43 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.07 | -0.07 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2003 | #223 | Trent Smith | OFF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 2002 | #206 | Javin Hunter | OFF | +0.00 | +0.13 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 1997 | #238 | Leland Taylor | DEF | -0.20 | +0.12 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 1997 | #205 | Chris Ward | DEF | -0.16 | +0.07 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1998 | #164 | Sammy Williams | OFF | +0.01 | -0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2003 | #258 | Antwoine Sanders | DEF | -0.23 | +0.09 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2001 | #231 | Dwayne Missouri | DEF | -0.24 | +0.09 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2011 | #225 | Anthony Allen | OFF | +0.11 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2010 | #156 | David Reed | OFF | +0.22 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2014 | #194 | Keith Wenning | OFF | -0.16 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 2018 | #122 | Kenny Young | DEF | -0.32 | -0.29 | +0.03 | -0.13 | +0.62 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.01 |
| 2005 | #234 | Mike Smith | DEF | -0.02 | +0.00 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 2013 | #32 | Matt Elam | DEF | +0.02 | -0.02 | -0.22 | -0.07 | +0.33 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| 2004 | #153 | Roderick Green | DEF | +0.10 | -0.15 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2002 | #123 | Ron Johnson | OFF | +0.07 | -0.01 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2004 | #244 | Derek Abney | OFF | -0.24 | +0.08 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 2000 | #191 | Cedric Woodard | DEF | -0.31 | +0.04 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 2011 | #164 | Chykie Brown | DEF | +0.42 | -0.26 | +0.53 | -0.09 | -0.51 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| 2014 | #48 | Timmy Jernigan | DEF | -0.25 | -0.28 | +0.06 | -0.16 | +0.54 | -0.17 | -0.07 | -0.09 |
| 2008 | #240 | Allen Patrick | OFF | -0.33 | +0.08 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2014 | #99 | Crockett Gillmore | OFF | +0.02 | +0.03 | -0.22 | +0.10 | -0.22 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| 2008 | #215 | Justin Harper | OFF | -0.29 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1997 | #118 | Tyrus McCloud | DEF | +0.00 | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2012 | #169 | Asa Jackson | DEF | -0.26 | -0.16 | +0.11 | -0.14 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| 1997 | #167 | Steve Lee | OFF | -0.38 | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2003 | #250 | Mike Mabry | OFF | -0.25 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 2005 | #64 | Adam Terry | OFF | +0.27 | -0.24 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.21 |
| 2016 | #132 | Willie Henry | DEF | -0.25 | -0.21 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2004 | #82 | Devard Darling | OFF | +0.13 | -0.24 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2001 | #161 | Chris Barnes | OFF | -0.40 | +0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2013 | #247 | Marc Anthony | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | -0.29 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2009 | #23 | Michael Oher | OFF | +0.36 | +0.72 | -0.05 | +0.29 | -0.86 | -0.39 | -0.23 | -0.26 |
| 2009 | #149 | Davon Drew | OFF | -0.54 | -0.19 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2010 | #194 | Ramon Harewood | OFF | -0.28 | -0.12 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2018 | #190 | DeShon Elliott | DEF | -0.53 | -0.17 | -0.49 | -0.25 | +0.69 | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.28 |
| 1996 | #172 | Dexter Daniels | DEF | -0.34 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1998 | #133 | Ryan Sutter | DEF | -0.44 | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2006 | #219 | Ryan LaCasse | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2016 | #134 | Kenneth Dixon | OFF | -0.25 | -0.24 | -0.68 | -0.05 | +0.31 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 1997 | #134 | Jeff Mitchell | OFF | -0.27 | +0.11 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.30 |
| 2011 | #165 | Pernell McPhee | DEF | +0.48 | -0.52 | -0.34 | -0.24 | +0.21 | -0.20 | -0.12 | -0.30 |
| 2012 | #98 | Gino Gradkowski | OFF | -0.11 | -0.42 | +0.30 | -0.31 | -0.03 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.33 |
| 2013 | #238 | Aaron Mellette | OFF | -0.38 | -0.05 | -0.38 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2014 | #17 | C.J. Mosley | DEF | -0.59 | -0.02 | +0.62 | +0.70 | +1.63 | -1.24 | -1.77 | -0.34 |
| 2012 | #198 | Tommy Streeter | OFF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2008 | #106 | Marcus Smith | OFF | -0.06 | -0.23 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2013 | #200 | Kapron Lewis-Moore | DEF | -0.33 | -0.09 | -0.49 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2014 | #138 | Lorenzo Taliaferro | OFF | -0.17 | -0.19 | -0.43 | -0.09 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 1998 | #154 | Ron Rogers | DEF | -0.47 | -0.12 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2007 | #74 | Yamon Figurs | OFF | -0.03 | -0.34 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2008 | #133 | David Hale | OFF | -0.09 | -0.35 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2006 | #132 | P.J. Daniels | OFF | -0.51 | -0.08 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2000 | #148 | Richard Mercier | OFF | -0.42 | -0.25 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2009 | #137 | Jason Phillips | DEF | -0.38 | -0.25 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2012 | #130 | Christian Thompson | DEF | -0.42 | -0.24 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2006 | #87 | David Pittman | DEF | -0.45 | -0.26 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2000 | #10 | Travis Taylor | OFF | +0.05 | +0.23 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.37 | -0.22 | -0.53 |
| 2002 | #207 | Chester Taylor | OFF | +0.14 | -0.61 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.56 |
| 2011 | #85 | Jah Reid | OFF | +0.04 | -0.53 | -0.07 | -0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.56 |
| 2008 | #71 | Tavares Gooden | DEF | -0.35 | -0.30 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.61 |
| 2016 | #209 | Maurice Canady | DEF | -0.13 | -0.28 | -0.32 | -0.17 | -0.57 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.65 |
| 2016 | #182 | Keenan Reynolds | OFF | -0.58 | -0.14 | -0.60 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 1997 | #64 | Jay Graham | OFF | -0.33 | -0.34 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.72 |
| 2015 | #136 | Tray Walker | DEF | -0.44 | -0.28 | -0.91 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 2018 | #212 | Greg Senat | OFF | -0.57 | -0.39 | -0.40 | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 2006 | #208 | Derrick Martin | DEF | -0.27 | -0.46 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.77 |
| 2012 | #60 | Kelechi Osemele | OFF | -0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | -0.20 | -0.46 | -0.41 | -0.24 | -0.78 |
| 2003 | #19 | Kyle Boller | OFF | -0.13 | -0.14 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.29 | -0.06 | -0.82 |
| 2011 | #27 | Jimmy Smith | DEF | +0.86 | +0.61 | -0.40 | -0.06 | -0.20 | -1.20 | -0.92 | -0.83 |
| 2015 | #176 | Robert Myers | OFF | -0.56 | -0.38 | -0.80 | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.86 |
| 2005 | #53 | Dan Cody | DEF | -0.68 | -0.43 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.89 |
| 2006 | #203 | Sam Koch | ST | +3.34 | -1.90 | -0.78 | -0.56 | -0.49 | -0.50 | -0.70 | -0.91 |
| 2016 | #42 | Kamalei Correa | DEF | -0.36 | -0.57 | -0.01 | -0.43 | -0.67 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.91 |
| 2018 | #162 | Jordan Lasley | OFF | -0.64 | -0.27 | -1.02 | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.92 |
| 2018 | #132 | Jaleel Scott | OFF | -0.64 | -0.34 | -0.84 | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.94 |
| 2009 | #57 | Paul Kruger | DEF | -0.13 | -0.79 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.15 | -0.07 | -1.05 |
| 2016 | #70 | Bronson Kaufusi | DEF | -0.77 | -0.48 | -0.72 | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.05 |
| 2017 | #78 | Tim Williams | DEF | -0.47 | -0.59 | -1.05 | -0.42 | -0.19 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.06 |
| 2008 | #99 | Oniel Cousins | OFF | -0.41 | -0.69 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.08 |
| 1998 | #42 | Patrick Johnson | OFF | -0.26 | -0.59 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.18 | -0.09 | -1.16 |
| 2007 | #134 | Antwan Barnes | DEF | -0.27 | -0.76 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -1.17 |
| 2010 | #70 | Ed Dickson | OFF | -0.15 | +0.04 | -0.13 | -0.41 | -1.35 | -0.31 | -0.15 | -1.19 |
| 2017 | #47 | Tyus Bowser | DEF | +0.49 | -0.66 | -0.26 | -0.32 | -0.94 | -0.53 | -0.33 | -1.20 |
| 2013 | #56 | Arthur Brown | DEF | -0.10 | -0.62 | -0.59 | -0.44 | -1.00 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.21 |
| 2013 | #203 | Ryan Jensen | OFF | -0.66 | -0.52 | -0.77 | -0.57 | -0.29 | -0.17 | -0.13 | -1.23 |
| 1998 | #10 | Duane Starks | DEF | -0.30 | -0.47 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.47 | -0.37 | -1.24 |
| 2017 | #122 | Nico Siragusa | OFF | -0.73 | -0.54 | -1.15 | -0.40 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.25 |
| 2003 | #134 | Ovie Mughelli | OFF | -0.38 | -0.42 | — | -0.74 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | -1.25 |
| 2013 | #130 | Kyle Juszczyk | OFF | -0.82 | -0.85 | +0.54 | -1.65 | +0.50 | +0.02 | -0.79 | -1.34 |
| 2018 | #238 | Zach Sieler | DEF | -0.97 | -0.68 | -0.36 | -0.64 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.37 |
| 2010 | #43 | Sergio Kindle | DEF | -0.86 | -0.66 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.38 |
| 1998 | #124 | Martin Chase | DEF | -0.98 | -0.63 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.40 |
| 2006 | #56 | Chris Chester | OFF | -0.25 | -0.44 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.61 | -0.40 | -1.44 |
| 2009 | #185 | Cedric Peerman | OFF | -1.04 | -0.55 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.47 |
| 2014 | #134 | Brent Urban | DEF | +0.36 | -0.82 | -1.73 | -0.68 | -0.08 | -0.47 | -0.27 | -1.48 |
| 2015 | #90 | Carl Davis | DEF | -1.12 | -0.99 | -0.77 | -0.94 | +0.44 | -0.40 | -0.19 | -1.51 |
| 2017 | #159 | Jermaine Eluemunor | OFF | -1.05 | -1.10 | -0.70 | -0.93 | +0.18 | -0.24 | -0.16 | -1.52 |
| 2015 | #122 | Za'Darius Smith | DEF | -0.53 | -0.97 | -0.29 | -0.78 | -0.46 | -0.42 | -0.22 | -1.54 |
| 2018 | #25 | Hayden Hurst | OFF | -0.90 | -1.21 | -0.98 | -0.69 | +0.45 | -0.57 | -0.24 | -1.55 |
| 2001 | #92 | Casey Rabach | OFF | -0.60 | -0.70 | — | -0.78 | — | -0.22 | -0.15 | -1.61 |
| 2003 | #173 | Tony Pashos | OFF | -0.73 | -0.70 | — | -0.85 | — | -0.16 | -0.13 | -1.71 |
| 2015 | #55 | Maxx Williams | OFF | -0.53 | -0.59 | -0.67 | -0.63 | -1.11 | -0.38 | -0.17 | -1.75 |
| 2017 | #74 | Chris Wormley | DEF | -0.68 | -0.82 | -0.96 | -0.74 | -0.56 | -0.40 | -0.18 | -1.76 |
| 2013 | #129 | John Simon | DEF | -1.25 | -0.96 | -0.27 | -0.85 | — | -0.15 | -0.07 | -1.79 |
| 2014 | #79 | Terrence Brooks | DEF | -0.83 | -0.98 | -0.76 | -0.76 | -1.02 | -0.21 | -0.14 | -1.93 |
| 2003 | #146 | Aubrayo Franklin | DEF | -0.82 | -1.16 | — | -0.97 | — | -0.14 | -0.09 | -2.07 |
| 2015 | #204 | Darren Waller | OFF | -1.32 | -1.15 | -0.54 | -1.27 | -1.12 | -0.31 | -0.22 | -2.45 |
| 2008 | #18 | Joe Flacco | OFF | +0.25 | +1.18 | -0.48 | +1.11 | -1.62 | -3.96 | -1.17 | -2.51 |
| 2004 | #51 | Dwan Edwards | DEF | -0.88 | -1.12 | — | -1.06 | — | -0.59 | -0.32 | -2.52 |
| 2016 | #107 | Chris Moore | OFF | -0.29 | -1.15 | -0.66 | -1.09 | -1.82 | -0.53 | -0.31 | -2.58 |
| 2002 | #112 | Dave Zastudil | ST | -0.79 | -1.39 | — | -1.18 | — | -0.46 | -0.48 | -2.74 |
| 2015 | #26 | Breshad Perriman | OFF | -0.99 | -1.25 | -1.09 | -1.11 | -1.27 | -0.64 | -0.32 | -2.78 |
| 2000 | #75 | Chris Redman | OFF | -1.55 | -1.27 | — | -1.38 | — | -0.32 | -0.07 | -2.98 |
| 2005 | #213 | Derek Anderson | OFF | -1.98 | -1.55 | — | -1.79 | — | -0.19 | -0.06 | -3.68 |
| 2011 | #180 | Tyrod Taylor | OFF | -2.04 | -1.91 | -1.22 | -2.15 | — | -0.45 | -0.13 | -4.16 |
| 1999 | #105 | Brandon Stokley | OFF | -1.81 | -1.84 | -2.04 | -2.00 | — | -0.81 | -0.64 | -4.62 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.