Rod Graves
ARI · Composite skill θ = +0.08 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.45 to +0.61
Evidence: 70 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 2003–2012 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.19
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2003–2012ARIVP Football Ops; promoted to GM 2003
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | #5 | Patrick Peterson | DEF | +4.48 |
| 2004 | #64 | Darnell Dockett | DEF | +4.20 |
| 2010 | #47 | Daryl Washington | DEF | +2.15 |
| 2003 | #177 | Reggie Wells | OFF | +2.01 |
| 2006 | #41 | Deuce Lutui | OFF | +1.50 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | #18 | Calvin Pace | DEF | -3.88 |
| 2008 | #16 | Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | DEF | -3.51 |
| 2007 | #33 | Alan Branch | DEF | -3.25 |
| 2012 | #151 | Senio Kelemete | OFF | -2.82 |
| 2010 | #88 | Andre Roberts | OFF | -2.81 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 70 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2011 | #5 | Patrick Peterson | DEF | +0.84 | +1.50 | +1.70 | +2.08 | +0.72 | +1.28 | +2.18 | +4.48 |
| 2004 | #64 | Darnell Dockett | DEF | +2.11 | +3.05 | -0.15 | +2.56 | -0.42 | +3.04 | -0.12 | +4.20 |
| 2010 | #47 | Daryl Washington | DEF | +0.52 | +0.84 | +0.58 | +1.03 | +0.99 | +1.04 | -0.04 | +2.15 |
| 2003 | #177 | Reggie Wells | OFF | +1.10 | +1.37 | — | +0.87 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | +2.01 |
| 2006 | #41 | Deuce Lutui | OFF | +1.04 | +0.91 | — | +0.63 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | +1.50 |
| 2007 | #142 | Steve Breaston | OFF | +0.79 | +0.43 | — | +0.75 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.34 |
| 2003 | #70 | Gerald Hayes | DEF | +0.94 | +0.83 | — | +0.44 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | +1.21 |
| 2009 | #240 | LaRod Stephens-Howling | OFF | +1.04 | +0.35 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.11 |
| 2006 | #107 | Gabe Watson | DEF | +0.96 | +0.39 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.07 |
| 2009 | #95 | Rashad Johnson | DEF | +1.18 | +0.58 | +0.81 | +0.38 | +0.22 | -0.11 | -0.08 | +1.06 |
| 2007 | #215 | Ben Patrick | OFF | +0.64 | +0.51 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.96 |
| 2005 | #75 | Eric Green | DEF | +0.59 | +0.58 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.93 |
| 2003 | #54 | Anquan Boldin | OFF | -0.40 | +0.38 | — | +0.44 | — | +1.93 | -0.95 | +0.92 |
| 2011 | #69 | Rob Housler | OFF | +0.53 | +0.30 | +0.57 | +0.26 | +0.50 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.82 |
| 2010 | #155 | John Skelton | OFF | +0.32 | +0.52 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.62 |
| 2012 | #185 | Ryan Lindley | OFF | +0.08 | +0.24 | +1.36 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.60 |
| 2008 | #225 | Brandon Keith | OFF | +0.29 | +0.37 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 2008 | #81 | Early Doucet | OFF | +0.66 | +0.07 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.55 |
| 2004 | #100 | Alex Stepanovich | OFF | +0.16 | +0.43 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.53 |
| 2004 | #167 | Nick Leckey | OFF | +0.47 | +0.15 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 2012 | #221 | Nate Potter | OFF | +0.09 | -0.08 | +1.14 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.35 |
| 2010 | #26 | Dan Williams | DEF | +0.36 | +0.03 | -0.11 | +0.04 | +0.67 | -0.17 | -0.08 | +0.32 |
| 2004 | #202 | John Navarre | OFF | +0.05 | +0.23 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 2011 | #184 | David Carter | DEF | +0.33 | +0.03 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2005 | #44 | J.J. Arrington | OFF | +0.61 | -0.23 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.27 |
| 2005 | #111 | Elton Brown | OFF | +0.28 | +0.01 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2009 | #204 | Will Davis | DEF | +0.14 | +0.06 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.24 |
| 2009 | #31 | Beanie Wells | OFF | +0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.14 |
| 2005 | #226 | LeRon McCoy | OFF | -0.04 | +0.16 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| 2008 | #116 | Kenny Iwebema | DEF | +0.21 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2011 | #249 | DeMarco Sampson | OFF | -0.04 | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2003 | #141 | Kenny King | DEF | -0.16 | -0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 2004 | #3 | Larry Fitzgerald | OFF | +2.56 | +3.58 | +0.67 | +1.80 | -1.56 | +1.69 | -6.68 | -0.10 |
| 2012 | #13 | Michael Floyd | OFF | +0.37 | -0.06 | +0.70 | -0.02 | -0.26 | -0.41 | -0.22 | -0.11 |
| 2008 | #149 | Tim Hightower | OFF | -0.16 | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.12 |
| 2006 | #218 | Todd Watkins | OFF | -0.31 | +0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2006 | #177 | Jonathan Lewis | DEF | -0.28 | -0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2007 | #5 | Levi Brown | OFF | +0.48 | +0.49 | -0.52 | -0.03 | — | -0.36 | -0.25 | -0.19 |
| 2008 | #185 | Chris Harrington | DEF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.21 |
| 2005 | #168 | Lance Mitchell | DEF | -0.19 | -0.13 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2010 | #233 | Jim Dray | OFF | +0.35 | -0.10 | +0.55 | -0.23 | -0.68 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.23 |
| 2010 | #201 | Jorrick Calvin | DEF | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2010 | #130 | O'Brien Schofield | DEF | -0.09 | -0.28 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| 2009 | #254 | Trevor Canfield | OFF | -0.31 | -0.16 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2011 | #103 | Sam Acho | DEF | -0.22 | -0.11 | -0.14 | -0.04 | -0.14 | -0.16 | -0.08 | -0.37 |
| 2006 | #72 | Leonard Pope | OFF | -0.10 | -0.05 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.38 |
| 2009 | #167 | Herman Johnson | OFF | -0.46 | -0.29 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2011 | #171 | Quan Sturdivant | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2012 | #80 | Jamell Fleming | DEF | -0.37 | -0.32 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.57 |
| 2009 | #131 | Greg Toler | DEF | -0.22 | -0.31 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.61 |
| 2012 | #112 | Bobby Massie | OFF | -0.38 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.36 | -0.09 | -0.33 | -0.22 | -0.68 |
| 2005 | #95 | Darryl Blackstock | DEF | +0.05 | -0.62 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.77 |
| 2003 | #210 | Tony Gilbert | DEF | -0.78 | -0.40 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.98 |
| 2007 | #69 | Buster Davis | DEF | -0.77 | -0.45 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.02 |
| 2012 | #177 | Justin Bethel | DEF | +0.33 | -1.08 | -0.23 | -0.70 | -0.04 | -0.32 | -0.31 | -1.02 |
| 2009 | #63 | Cody Brown | DEF | -0.83 | -0.51 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.13 |
| 2004 | #33 | Karlos Dansby | DEF | +0.05 | +0.69 | -0.96 | +0.41 | +1.06 | -1.94 | -1.74 | -1.17 |
| 2003 | #17 | Bryant Johnson | OFF | +0.12 | -0.44 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.52 | -0.30 | -1.18 |
| 2006 | #142 | Brandon Johnson | DEF | -0.73 | -0.55 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.18 |
| 2011 | #38 | Ryan Williams | OFF | -0.79 | -0.49 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.24 |
| 2006 | #10 | Matt Leinart | OFF | -0.39 | -0.68 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.17 | -0.03 | -1.26 |
| 2008 | #50 | Calais Campbell | DEF | -0.07 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.27 | +0.98 | -2.52 | -1.87 | -1.38 |
| 2004 | #135 | Antonio Smith | DEF | -0.70 | -0.56 | — | -0.85 | — | -0.30 | -0.20 | -1.73 |
| 2011 | #136 | Anthony Sherman | OFF | -0.94 | -0.76 | — | -1.08 | — | -0.32 | -0.21 | -2.19 |
| 2005 | #8 | Antrel Rolle | DEF | -0.66 | -0.53 | — | -1.03 | — | -0.24 | -1.20 | -2.34 |
| 2010 | #88 | Andre Roberts | OFF | -0.90 | -0.89 | -0.96 | -1.31 | -0.80 | -1.00 | -0.68 | -2.81 |
| 2012 | #151 | Senio Kelemete | OFF | -1.57 | -1.29 | — | -1.19 | — | -0.23 | -0.16 | -2.82 |
| 2007 | #33 | Alan Branch | DEF | -0.99 | -1.65 | — | -1.42 | — | -0.67 | -0.35 | -3.25 |
| 2008 | #16 | Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | DEF | -1.34 | -1.02 | — | -1.28 | — | -0.63 | -1.48 | -3.51 |
| 2003 | #18 | Calvin Pace | DEF | -1.04 | -1.26 | — | -1.59 | — | -1.43 | -0.85 | -3.88 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.