Dom Anile
CAR · Composite skill θ = +0.24 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.41 to +0.90
Evidence: 28 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 1998–2001 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.04
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1998–2001CARDirector of Player Personnel; no formal GM in Richardson family era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #44 | Kris Jenkins | DEF | +5.42 |
| 1999 | #38 | Mike Rucker | DEF | +3.80 |
| 1998 | #106 | Donald Hayes | OFF | +1.37 |
| 2000 | #221 | Lester Towns | DEF | +1.28 |
| 1998 | #165 | Damien Richardson | DEF | +1.26 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #57 | Deon Grant | DEF | -1.92 |
| 2000 | #120 | Alvin McKinley | DEF | -1.34 |
| 1999 | #100 | Hannibal Navies | DEF | -1.15 |
| 2000 | #82 | Leander Jordan | OFF | -0.89 |
| 1998 | #62 | Chuck Wiley | DEF | -0.81 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 28 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2001 | #44 | Kris Jenkins | DEF | +0.28 | +0.81 | — | +1.31 | — | +2.99 | +4.15 | +5.42 |
| 1999 | #38 | Mike Rucker | DEF | +1.78 | +1.71 | — | +1.66 | — | +0.89 | -0.10 | +3.80 |
| 1998 | #106 | Donald Hayes | OFF | +0.74 | +0.71 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.37 |
| 2000 | #221 | Lester Towns | DEF | +0.79 | +0.65 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.28 |
| 1998 | #165 | Damien Richardson | DEF | +1.50 | +0.25 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.26 |
| 2001 | #11 | Dan Morgan | DEF | -0.03 | +0.29 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.87 | -0.16 | +0.61 |
| 2001 | #74 | Steve Smith Sr. | OFF | +1.29 | +1.96 | -1.74 | +2.45 | +0.34 | -1.45 | -1.16 | +0.59 |
| 2000 | #182 | Jeno James | OFF | +0.59 | +0.24 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.55 |
| 2001 | #106 | Chris Weinke | OFF | +0.07 | +0.19 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 2001 | #227 | Mike Roberg | OFF | -0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| 1998 | #228 | Jim Turner | OFF | -0.24 | +0.09 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 1998 | #196 | Viliami Maumau | DEF | -0.27 | +0.05 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 1999 | #211 | Tony Booth | DEF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1999 | #175 | Robert Daniel | DEF | -0.34 | +0.02 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2000 | #147 | Gillis Wilson | DEF | -0.28 | -0.04 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 2001 | #175 | Dee Brown | OFF | -0.23 | -0.04 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2001 | #211 | Louis Williams | OFF | -0.25 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 1998 | #136 | Jerry Jensen | DEF | -0.27 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2001 | #143 | Jarrod Cooper | DEF | +0.15 | -0.43 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| 1998 | #14 | Jason Peter | DEF | -0.01 | -0.27 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.49 |
| 1999 | #34 | Chris Terry | OFF | -0.25 | +0.11 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.31 | -0.19 | -0.55 |
| 1998 | #73 | Mitch Marrow | DEF | -0.60 | -0.27 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 2000 | #23 | Rashard Anderson | DEF | -0.22 | -0.45 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.69 |
| 1998 | #62 | Chuck Wiley | DEF | -0.66 | -0.24 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.81 |
| 2000 | #82 | Leander Jordan | OFF | -0.48 | -0.48 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 1999 | #100 | Hannibal Navies | DEF | -0.49 | -0.58 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.13 | -0.10 | -1.15 |
| 2000 | #120 | Alvin McKinley | DEF | -0.90 | -0.65 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.34 |
| 2000 | #57 | Deon Grant | DEF | -1.03 | -0.39 | — | -0.69 | — | -0.56 | -0.47 | -1.92 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.