Steve Ortmayer
LAC · Composite skill θ = -0.34 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.06 to +0.38
Evidence: 62 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 1980–1989 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.15
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1989LACDirector Football Operations; pre-Beathard era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | #22 | Gill Byrd | DEF | +3.79 |
| 1989 | #183 | Marion Butts | OFF | +3.39 |
| 1989 | #37 | Courtney Hall | OFF | +2.91 |
| 1988 | #15 | Anthony Miller | OFF | +2.71 |
| 1984 | #118 | Lionel James | OFF | +1.77 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #24 | James Brooks | OFF | -5.26 |
| 1988 | #60 | Quinn Early | OFF | -3.37 |
| 1985 | #12 | Jim Lachey | OFF | -3.14 |
| 1983 | #20 | Gary Anderson | OFF | -2.50 |
| 1984 | #6 | Mossy Cade | DEF | -2.38 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 62 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1983 | #22 | Gill Byrd | DEF | +1.56 | +2.32 | — | +1.44 | — | +1.35 | -0.53 | +3.79 |
| 1989 | #183 | Marion Butts | OFF | +1.05 | +1.27 | — | +1.16 | — | +2.15 | -0.02 | +3.39 |
| 1989 | #37 | Courtney Hall | OFF | +1.42 | +1.99 | — | +1.37 | — | -0.22 | -0.12 | +2.91 |
| 1988 | #15 | Anthony Miller | OFF | +0.24 | +0.75 | — | +0.71 | — | +3.49 | -0.48 | +2.71 |
| 1984 | #118 | Lionel James | OFF | +1.02 | +0.45 | — | +1.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.77 |
| 1986 | #8 | Leslie O'Neal | DEF | +0.17 | +0.67 | — | +0.81 | — | +2.46 | -1.74 | +1.59 |
| 1983 | #95 | Danny Walters | DEF | +0.64 | +0.97 | — | +0.56 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.34 |
| 1988 | #98 | David Richards | OFF | +0.52 | +1.07 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.16 | -0.09 | +1.23 |
| 1989 | #8 | Burt Grossman | DEF | +0.53 | +0.79 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.12 | -0.05 | +1.00 |
| 1985 | #96 | Ralf Mojsiejenko | ST | +0.41 | -0.30 | — | +0.27 | — | +1.02 | -0.05 | +0.82 |
| 1980 | #101 | Ed Luther | OFF | +1.10 | +0.10 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.73 |
| 1981 | #141 | Andrew Gissinger | OFF | +0.40 | +0.16 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 1985 | #55 | Jeffery Dale | DEF | +0.24 | +0.47 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.57 |
| 1983 | #192 | Bill Elko | DEF | +0.20 | +0.36 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.49 |
| 1987 | #173 | Jamie Holland | OFF | +0.47 | +0.12 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 1989 | #195 | Terrence Jones | OFF | -0.02 | +0.19 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 1980 | #175 | Chuck Loewen | OFF | +0.60 | -0.26 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 1984 | #174 | Jesse Bendross | OFF | +0.33 | -0.02 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 1981 | #162 | Bobby Duckworth | OFF | +0.18 | -0.24 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 1980 | #108 | Bob Gregor | DEF | +0.04 | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.04 |
| 1980 | #191 | Stuart Dodds | ST | -0.51 | +0.20 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 1986 | #129 | Donald Brown | DEF | -0.21 | +0.03 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 1987 | #88 | Mark Vlasic | OFF | -0.08 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 1981 | #107 | Eric Sievers | OFF | +0.59 | -0.02 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.35 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| 1981 | #131 | Keith Ferguson | DEF | -0.02 | +0.20 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.20 | -0.08 | -0.21 |
| 1988 | #91 | Joe Campbell | DEF | +0.01 | -0.24 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1985 | #150 | Terry Lewis | DEF | -0.25 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1984 | #144 | Keith Guthrie | DEF | -0.24 | -0.08 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.22 |
| 1986 | #66 | Terry Unrein | DEF | -0.20 | -0.12 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1983 | #141 | Trumaine Johnson | OFF | -0.07 | -0.17 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| 1985 | #69 | John Hendy | DEF | -0.34 | -0.11 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.32 |
| 1982 | #188 | Hollis Hall | DEF | -0.47 | -0.10 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1986 | #155 | Curt Pardridge | OFF | -0.45 | -0.09 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1985 | #196 | Mark Fellows | DEF | -0.41 | -0.12 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1989 | #120 | Elliot Smith | DEF | -0.46 | -0.16 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1986 | #133 | Matt Johnson | DEF | -0.52 | -0.16 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1986 | #182 | Fred Smalls | DEF | -0.49 | -0.13 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1986 | #95 | Ty Allert | DEF | -0.24 | -0.26 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1987 | #115 | Nelson Jones | DEF | -0.55 | -0.19 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1983 | #5 | Billy Ray Smith | DEF | +0.79 | +0.88 | — | +0.10 | — | -1.66 | -1.21 | -0.51 |
| 1980 | #151 | LaRue Harrington | OFF | -0.50 | -0.14 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1986 | #118 | Doug Landry | DEF | -0.63 | -0.27 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1980 | #163 | Wayne Hamilton | DEF | -0.64 | -0.25 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 1981 | #77 | Irvin Phillips | DEF | -0.40 | -0.41 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 1981 | #103 | Amos Lawrence | OFF | -0.70 | -0.25 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 1985 | #39 | Wayne Davis | DEF | -0.28 | -0.46 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.81 |
| 1988 | #152 | Cedric Figaro | DEF | -0.43 | -0.34 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.82 |
| 1986 | #97 | Tommy Taylor | DEF | -0.69 | -0.34 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| 1986 | #70 | Jeff Walker | OFF | -0.33 | -0.56 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 1988 | #93 | Stacy Searels | OFF | -0.61 | -0.44 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.85 |
| 1987 | #53 | Lou Brock | DEF | -0.74 | -0.46 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.98 |
| 1981 | #189 | Pete Holohan | OFF | +0.14 | -0.93 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.35 | -0.19 | -1.31 |
| 1987 | #24 | Rod Bernstine | OFF | -0.24 | -0.70 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.63 | -0.33 | -1.37 |
| 1984 | #33 | Mike Guendling | DEF | -0.77 | -0.73 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.48 |
| 1986 | #13 | James FitzPatrick | OFF | -0.31 | -0.89 | — | -0.86 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | -1.58 |
| 1987 | #59 | Karl Wilson | DEF | -1.06 | -1.07 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.19 | -0.08 | -2.12 |
| 1989 | #51 | Billy Joe Tolliver | OFF | -1.21 | -0.86 | — | -0.99 | — | -0.36 | -0.06 | -2.23 |
| 1984 | #6 | Mossy Cade | DEF | -1.12 | -1.15 | — | -1.16 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -2.38 |
| 1983 | #20 | Gary Anderson | OFF | -1.00 | -0.84 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.87 | -1.02 | -2.50 |
| 1985 | #12 | Jim Lachey | OFF | -1.26 | -1.08 | — | -1.22 | — | -0.53 | -0.97 | -3.14 |
| 1988 | #60 | Quinn Early | OFF | -1.34 | -1.25 | — | -1.48 | — | -0.77 | -0.44 | -3.37 |
| 1981 | #24 | James Brooks | OFF | -1.63 | -1.86 | — | -1.30 | — | -2.94 | -1.50 | -5.26 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.