Buddy Nix
BUF · Composite skill θ = -0.31 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.91 to +0.29
Evidence: 35 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2009–2012 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.03
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2009–2012BUFNamed GM Jan 2009
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | #42 | Jairus Byrd | DEF | +2.27 |
| 2009 | #28 | Eric Wood | OFF | +0.95 |
| 2011 | #3 | Marcell Dareus | DEF | +0.81 |
| 2011 | #206 | Justin Rogers | DEF | +0.71 |
| 2012 | #251 | John Potter | ST | +0.33 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | #10 | Stephon Gilmore | DEF | -5.38 |
| 2009 | #11 | Aaron Maybin | DEF | -1.56 |
| 2011 | #68 | Kelvin Sheppard | DEF | -1.28 |
| 2010 | #9 | C.J. Spiller | OFF | -1.13 |
| 2010 | #41 | Torell Troup | DEF | -0.84 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 35 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2009 | #42 | Jairus Byrd | DEF | +0.10 | +0.52 | -0.48 | +0.31 | +2.54 | +1.83 | -0.26 | +2.27 |
| 2009 | #28 | Eric Wood | OFF | +1.15 | +1.70 | +0.66 | +0.99 | -0.55 | -0.55 | -0.33 | +0.95 |
| 2011 | #3 | Marcell Dareus | DEF | +0.25 | +0.35 | -0.04 | +0.16 | +0.48 | -0.97 | +1.56 | +0.81 |
| 2011 | #206 | Justin Rogers | DEF | +0.41 | +0.12 | +1.13 | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.71 |
| 2012 | #251 | John Potter | ST | -0.22 | +0.30 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 2011 | #100 | Da'Norris Searcy | DEF | +0.24 | -0.21 | +0.31 | -0.15 | +0.68 | -0.12 | -0.09 | +0.27 |
| 2011 | #34 | Aaron Williams | DEF | +0.31 | +0.59 | +0.25 | +0.08 | -0.21 | -0.11 | -0.07 | +0.23 |
| 2012 | #41 | Cordy Glenn | OFF | +0.37 | +0.78 | +0.58 | +0.36 | -0.53 | -0.35 | -0.20 | +0.23 |
| 2010 | #209 | Levi Brown | OFF | -0.04 | +0.14 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2010 | #192 | Danny Batten | DEF | -0.02 | +0.06 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 2009 | #121 | Shawn Nelson | OFF | -0.19 | +0.10 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2012 | #124 | Ron Brooks | DEF | +0.53 | -0.17 | +0.39 | +0.03 | -0.40 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.04 |
| 2010 | #178 | Arthur Moats | DEF | +0.29 | -0.16 | +0.37 | -0.19 | — | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.08 |
| 2012 | #178 | Mark Asper | OFF | -0.35 | -0.32 | +0.94 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2009 | #183 | Cary Harris | DEF | -0.28 | -0.05 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2011 | #245 | Michael Jasper | DEF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2010 | #72 | Alex Carrington | DEF | +0.33 | -0.28 | +0.05 | -0.14 | -0.23 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.19 |
| 2011 | #169 | Chris White | DEF | -0.03 | -0.21 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2012 | #105 | Nigel Bradham | DEF | -0.18 | -0.06 | +0.38 | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.24 | -0.17 | -0.30 |
| 2009 | #147 | Nic Harris | DEF | -0.21 | -0.17 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2011 | #122 | Chris Hairston | OFF | +0.00 | -0.36 | +0.24 | -0.23 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.33 |
| 2009 | #220 | Ellis Lankster | DEF | -0.31 | -0.20 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2011 | #133 | Johnny White | OFF | -0.22 | -0.15 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| 2012 | #69 | T.J. Graham | OFF | -0.01 | +0.03 | +0.82 | -0.11 | -1.17 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 2010 | #216 | Kyle Calloway | OFF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2010 | #140 | Ed Wang | OFF | -0.39 | -0.36 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 2012 | #147 | Tank Carder | DEF | -0.63 | -0.27 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 2012 | #144 | Zebrie Sanders | OFF | -0.56 | -0.39 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 2009 | #51 | Andy Levitre | OFF | -0.30 | +0.16 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.55 | -0.34 | -0.80 |
| 2010 | #107 | Marcus Easley | OFF | +0.22 | -0.43 | +0.25 | -0.33 | -1.29 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.83 |
| 2010 | #41 | Torell Troup | DEF | -0.34 | -0.52 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2010 | #9 | C.J. Spiller | OFF | -0.02 | -0.54 | -0.71 | -0.11 | +0.00 | -0.80 | -0.49 | -1.13 |
| 2011 | #68 | Kelvin Sheppard | DEF | -0.67 | -0.39 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.21 | -0.15 | -1.28 |
| 2009 | #11 | Aaron Maybin | DEF | -0.39 | -0.95 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.56 |
| 2012 | #10 | Stephon Gilmore | DEF | -1.22 | -0.79 | -0.82 | -1.59 | -1.17 | -2.68 | -3.45 | -5.38 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.