Phil Emery
CHI · Composite skill θ = -0.09 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.71 to +0.53
Evidence: 20 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2012–2014 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.11
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2012–2014CHI
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #14 | Kyle Fuller | DEF | +2.72 |
| 2014 | #246 | Charles Leno Jr. | OFF | +1.66 |
| 2013 | #20 | Kyle Long | OFF | +0.65 |
| 2013 | #236 | Marquess Wilson | OFF | +0.54 |
| 2012 | #45 | Alshon Jeffery | OFF | +0.47 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #50 | Jonathan Bostic | DEF | -3.09 |
| 2014 | #51 | Ego Ferguson | DEF | -1.21 |
| 2012 | #79 | Brandon Hardin | DEF | -0.88 |
| 2014 | #191 | Pat O'Donnell | ST | -0.80 |
| 2014 | #131 | Brock Vereen | DEF | -0.63 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 20 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2014 | #14 | Kyle Fuller | DEF | +0.38 | +0.86 | +1.37 | +0.55 | +0.54 | +1.19 | +1.43 | +2.72 |
| 2014 | #246 | Charles Leno Jr. | OFF | +1.01 | +1.43 | +1.77 | +0.81 | -0.04 | -0.14 | -0.11 | +1.66 |
| 2013 | #20 | Kyle Long | OFF | +0.41 | +0.68 | +0.20 | +0.68 | +0.31 | -0.36 | -0.20 | +0.65 |
| 2013 | #236 | Marquess Wilson | OFF | +0.36 | +0.34 | +0.52 | +0.20 | +0.08 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.54 |
| 2012 | #45 | Alshon Jeffery | OFF | -0.16 | +0.24 | +0.44 | +0.37 | +1.03 | -0.52 | -0.28 | +0.47 |
| 2012 | #184 | Isaiah Frey | DEF | -0.01 | +0.07 | +0.87 | +0.08 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 2014 | #82 | Will Sutton | DEF | +0.12 | +0.09 | -0.22 | +0.04 | +0.03 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2012 | #19 | Shea McClellin | DEF | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.64 | -0.15 | -0.36 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| 2013 | #188 | Cornelius Washington | DEF | +0.19 | -0.16 | +0.10 | -0.05 | -0.30 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2013 | #163 | Jordan Mills | OFF | -0.66 | -0.29 | +0.26 | -0.32 | +0.62 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.21 |
| 2012 | #220 | Greg McCoy | DEF | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2014 | #183 | David Fales | OFF | -0.36 | -0.14 | +0.06 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.31 |
| 2012 | #111 | Evan Rodriguez | OFF | -0.39 | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2013 | #117 | Khaseem Greene | DEF | -0.12 | -0.20 | -0.69 | -0.17 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 2014 | #117 | Ka'Deem Carey | OFF | +0.22 | -0.22 | -0.53 | -0.14 | -0.37 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 2014 | #131 | Brock Vereen | DEF | -0.17 | -0.16 | -0.34 | -0.08 | -0.69 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 2014 | #191 | Pat O'Donnell | ST | +1.08 | -1.16 | -0.22 | -0.39 | -0.20 | -0.39 | -0.41 | -0.80 |
| 2012 | #79 | Brandon Hardin | DEF | -0.74 | -0.41 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| 2014 | #51 | Ego Ferguson | DEF | -0.39 | -0.54 | -1.09 | -0.37 | -0.62 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.21 |
| 2013 | #50 | Jonathan Bostic | DEF | -1.30 | -1.11 | -0.84 | -1.21 | -1.49 | -0.77 | -0.55 | -3.09 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.