John Idzik
NYJ · Composite skill θ = -0.56 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.21 to +0.09
Evidence: 19 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2013–2014 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.06
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2013–2014NYJ
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #209 | Quincy Enunwa | OFF | +0.76 |
| 2013 | #215 | Tommy Bohanon | OFF | +0.31 |
| 2014 | #233 | Trevor Reilly | DEF | +0.12 |
| 2014 | #213 | Tajh Boyd | OFF | +0.08 |
| 2014 | #18 | Calvin Pryor | DEF | -0.04 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #39 | Geno Smith | OFF | -3.59 |
| 2013 | #141 | Oday Aboushi | OFF | -1.87 |
| 2013 | #9 | Dee Milliner | DEF | -1.38 |
| 2014 | #137 | Dakota Dozier | OFF | -1.32 |
| 2014 | #104 | Jalen Saunders | OFF | -0.99 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 19 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2014 | #209 | Quincy Enunwa | OFF | +0.34 | +0.55 | +0.61 | +0.30 | +0.25 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.76 |
| 2013 | #215 | Tommy Bohanon | OFF | +0.22 | +0.18 | +0.65 | -0.21 | +0.19 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.31 |
| 2014 | #233 | Trevor Reilly | DEF | +0.19 | -0.16 | +0.58 | -0.02 | -0.12 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 2014 | #213 | Tajh Boyd | OFF | -0.13 | +0.08 | +0.16 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2014 | #18 | Calvin Pryor | DEF | -0.02 | +0.11 | +0.24 | -0.21 | +0.10 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.04 |
| 2013 | #72 | Brian Winters | OFF | +0.54 | +0.82 | +0.36 | +0.15 | -0.80 | -0.38 | -0.22 | -0.04 |
| 2014 | #210 | IK Enemkpali | DEF | -0.31 | -0.10 | -0.13 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2014 | #195 | Brandon Dixon | DEF | -0.49 | -0.14 | -0.23 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2013 | #13 | Sheldon Richardson | DEF | -0.52 | -0.17 | +0.59 | -0.08 | +0.12 | -0.78 | -0.38 | -0.59 |
| 2014 | #80 | Dexter McDougle | DEF | -0.29 | -0.44 | -0.36 | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.67 |
| 2014 | #154 | Jeremiah George | DEF | -0.65 | -0.29 | -0.28 | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2013 | #178 | William Campbell | OFF | -0.51 | -0.34 | -0.62 | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.73 |
| 2014 | #49 | Jace Amaro | OFF | -0.61 | -0.54 | -1.02 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.95 |
| 2014 | #115 | Shaquelle Evans | OFF | -0.65 | -0.30 | -1.03 | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.95 |
| 2014 | #104 | Jalen Saunders | OFF | -0.61 | -0.33 | -1.08 | -0.29 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.99 |
| 2014 | #137 | Dakota Dozier | OFF | -0.31 | -0.78 | -1.24 | -0.66 | -0.21 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -1.32 |
| 2013 | #9 | Dee Milliner | DEF | -0.64 | -0.73 | -1.18 | -0.79 | -0.02 | -0.14 | -0.10 | -1.38 |
| 2013 | #141 | Oday Aboushi | OFF | -1.27 | -1.06 | -0.43 | -1.01 | -0.43 | -0.28 | -0.19 | -1.87 |
| 2013 | #39 | Geno Smith | OFF | -1.55 | -1.19 | -1.19 | -1.47 | -1.26 | -1.52 | -0.32 | -3.59 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.