Thomas Dimitroff
ATL · Composite skill θ = +0.10 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.46 to +0.66
Composite θ
+0.10
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.46–+0.66
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
64%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 93 mapped picks across 13 draft classes, 2008–2020 · 97% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.28
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2008–2020ATL8-time GM-of-the-year nominee era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | #3 | Matt Ryan | OFF | +4.77 |
| 2015 | #137 | Grady Jarrett | DEF | +3.92 |
| 2011 | #6 | Julio Jones | OFF | +3.41 |
| 2019 | #14 | Chris Lindstrom | OFF | +3.17 |
| 2014 | #103 | Devonta Freeman | OFF | +2.44 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #83 | Corey Peters | DEF | -2.21 |
| 2017 | #174 | Eric Saubert | OFF | -2.12 |
| 2017 | #136 | Sean Harlow | OFF | -1.86 |
| 2017 | #75 | Duke Riley | DEF | -1.67 |
| 2010 | #19 | Sean Weatherspoon | DEF | -1.66 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 93 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2008 | #3 | Matt Ryan | OFF | +2.37 | +3.10 | +1.37 | +5.38 | -0.19 | -1.02 | +0.79 | +4.77 |
| 2015 | #137 | Grady Jarrett | DEF | +1.79 | +2.42 | +2.50 | +1.57 | +0.19 | +1.83 | -0.20 | +3.92 |
| 2011 | #6 | Julio Jones | OFF | +0.40 | +1.01 | +0.15 | +2.31 | +2.23 | +0.62 | +0.62 | +3.41 |
| 2019 | #14 | Chris Lindstrom | OFF | +0.89 | +1.25 | +0.93 | +0.95 | +0.22 | +3.55 | -0.43 | +3.17 |
| 2014 | #103 | Devonta Freeman | OFF | +0.54 | +0.81 | +1.29 | +1.31 | +1.10 | +0.85 | -0.14 | +2.44 |
| 2008 | #98 | Thomas DeCoud | DEF | +1.15 | +1.54 | +0.63 | +1.12 | +0.05 | +1.03 | -0.05 | +2.19 |
| 2015 | #8 | Vic Beasley | DEF | +0.41 | +0.23 | +0.12 | +0.07 | +0.56 | +0.72 | +1.90 | +1.89 |
| 2009 | #55 | William Moore | DEF | +0.66 | +1.16 | +0.18 | +0.75 | +0.56 | +0.98 | -0.08 | +1.78 |
| 2014 | #147 | Ricardo Allen | DEF | +0.67 | +1.33 | +0.98 | +0.52 | +0.53 | -0.11 | -0.08 | +1.42 |
| 2019 | #31 | Kaleb McGary | OFF | +0.93 | +1.32 | +1.37 | +0.88 | -0.49 | -0.33 | -0.16 | +1.16 |
| 2020 | #16 | AJ Terrell | DEF | +0.80 | +1.29 | +1.49 | +0.38 | -0.19 | -0.45 | -0.27 | +0.92 |
| 2013 | #243 | Kemal Ishmael | DEF | +1.51 | +0.23 | +0.59 | +0.28 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.03 | +0.86 |
| 2012 | #55 | Peter Konz | OFF | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.44 | +0.20 | +1.04 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.77 |
| 2008 | #21 | Sam Baker | OFF | +0.53 | +0.54 | -0.45 | +0.55 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | +0.65 |
| 2012 | #164 | Jonathan Massaquoi | DEF | +0.45 | +0.06 | +1.16 | +0.19 | +0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.64 |
| 2012 | #91 | Lamar Holmes | OFF | -0.20 | -0.01 | +0.86 | +0.05 | +0.70 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.57 |
| 2008 | #154 | Kroy Biermann | DEF | +1.61 | +0.29 | +0.74 | +0.50 | -1.11 | -0.07 | -0.06 | +0.51 |
| 2010 | #135 | Dominique Franks | DEF | +0.62 | -0.08 | +0.65 | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2016 | #81 | Austin Hooper | OFF | -0.48 | -0.67 | +0.28 | -0.25 | +0.71 | +1.48 | -0.35 | +0.51 |
| 2012 | #249 | Travian Robertson | DEF | -0.06 | -0.01 | +1.29 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.46 |
| 2018 | #200 | Foyesade Oluokun | DEF | +0.36 | +0.37 | +1.25 | +0.20 | -0.48 | -0.11 | -0.09 | +0.42 |
| 2010 | #171 | Shann Schillinger | DEF | +0.41 | -0.12 | +0.84 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.42 |
| 2009 | #210 | Vance Walker | DEF | +0.65 | -0.06 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 2018 | #194 | Russell Gage | OFF | +0.29 | -0.17 | +0.68 | +0.05 | +0.28 | -0.14 | -0.08 | +0.33 |
| 2008 | #37 | Curtis Lofton | DEF | +0.01 | +0.53 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.27 | -0.19 | +0.32 |
| 2015 | #107 | Justin Hardy | OFF | +1.07 | -0.18 | +0.61 | +0.10 | -0.41 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.31 |
| 2013 | #249 | Sean Renfree | OFF | +0.00 | +0.14 | +0.39 | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 2016 | #52 | Deion Jones | DEF | +0.00 | +0.67 | +1.11 | +0.32 | -0.35 | +0.08 | -0.70 | +0.27 |
| 2011 | #192 | Matthew Bosher | ST | +1.88 | -0.49 | -0.04 | +0.23 | -0.43 | -0.10 | -0.09 | +0.26 |
| 2013 | #22 | Desmond Trufant | DEF | +0.49 | +1.10 | +1.17 | +0.25 | -0.34 | -0.73 | -0.52 | +0.24 |
| 2008 | #232 | Keith Zinger | OFF | +0.00 | +0.02 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 2017 | #156 | Brian Hill | OFF | +0.29 | -0.13 | +0.33 | +0.10 | -0.16 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| 2011 | #230 | Cliff Matthews | DEF | +0.29 | -0.19 | +0.66 | -0.01 | -0.41 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2008 | #84 | Harry Douglas | OFF | +0.52 | -0.51 | +0.04 | +0.15 | +0.44 | -0.34 | -0.20 | +0.04 |
| 2013 | #127 | Malliciah Goodman | DEF | +0.27 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.06 | -0.22 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2013 | #60 | Robert Alford | DEF | +0.48 | +0.86 | +0.83 | +0.06 | -0.81 | -0.38 | -0.26 | +0.03 |
| 2015 | #73 | Tevin Coleman | OFF | -0.09 | -0.41 | +0.09 | +0.23 | +0.66 | -0.38 | -0.20 | +0.02 |
| 2009 | #24 | Peria Jerry | DEF | +0.61 | +0.06 | +0.63 | -0.03 | -0.76 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.00 |
| 2011 | #91 | Akeem Dent | DEF | +0.18 | -0.03 | +0.40 | -0.07 | -0.22 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| 2013 | #133 | Levine Toilolo | OFF | +0.66 | +0.75 | +1.04 | -0.24 | -1.24 | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| 2013 | #244 | Zeke Motta | DEF | -0.15 | -0.03 | -0.17 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2015 | #249 | Akeem King | DEF | -0.30 | -0.09 | +0.25 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2009 | #156 | Garrett Reynolds | OFF | -0.08 | -0.21 | +0.61 | -0.11 | -0.20 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.10 |
| 2009 | #176 | Spencer Adkins | DEF | +0.07 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2013 | #153 | Stansly Maponga | DEF | +0.04 | -0.18 | -0.17 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2016 | #115 | De'Vondre Campbell | DEF | -0.19 | +0.34 | +0.68 | -0.05 | -0.23 | -0.32 | -0.23 | -0.13 |
| 2008 | #212 | Wilrey Fontenot | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2012 | #192 | Charles Mitchell | DEF | -0.22 | -0.11 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2016 | #195 | Wes Schweitzer | OFF | -0.26 | -0.10 | +0.32 | -0.11 | +0.09 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.16 |
| 2020 | #134 | Jaylinn Hawkins | DEF | +0.19 | +0.03 | -0.29 | -0.06 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| 2012 | #157 | Bradie Ewing | OFF | -0.50 | -0.06 | +0.55 | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.17 |
| 2010 | #117 | Joe Hawley | OFF | +0.18 | -0.32 | +0.07 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.22 |
| 2009 | #90 | Chris Owens | DEF | +0.38 | -0.33 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.23 |
| 2011 | #145 | Jacquizz Rodgers | OFF | +0.37 | -0.52 | +0.76 | +0.10 | -0.81 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.25 |
| 2010 | #165 | Kerry Meier | OFF | -0.17 | -0.11 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2020 | #228 | Sterling Hofrichter | ST | -0.21 | +0.09 | -1.06 | +0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 2008 | #68 | Chevis Jackson | DEF | +0.04 | -0.31 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| 2020 | #119 | Mykal Walker | DEF | +0.10 | -0.14 | +0.10 | -0.13 | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.27 |
| 2008 | #172 | Thomas Brown | OFF | -0.45 | -0.02 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2018 | #126 | Ito Smith | OFF | +0.09 | -0.31 | -0.22 | -0.07 | -0.27 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.36 |
| 2019 | #135 | John Cominsky | DEF | -0.08 | -0.32 | -0.02 | -0.14 | -0.31 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| 2009 | #125 | Lawrence Sidbury | DEF | +0.23 | -0.53 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 2009 | #138 | William Middleton | DEF | -0.52 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2014 | #37 | Ra'Shede Hageman | DEF | +0.12 | -0.24 | -0.59 | -0.22 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.45 |
| 2011 | #210 | Andrew Jackson | OFF | -0.41 | -0.25 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2014 | #255 | Tyler Starr | DEF | -0.45 | -0.14 | -0.50 | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2016 | #238 | Devin Fuller | OFF | -0.45 | -0.11 | -0.58 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2014 | #253 | Yawin Smallwood | DEF | -0.48 | -0.14 | -0.56 | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2017 | #149 | Damontae Kazee | DEF | -0.22 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.36 | -0.05 | -0.22 | -0.17 | -0.53 |
| 2020 | #78 | Matt Hennessy | OFF | -0.05 | -0.33 | -0.81 | -0.32 | +0.28 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.56 |
| 2010 | #98 | Mike Johnson | OFF | -0.21 | -0.45 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 2019 | #172 | Jordan Miller | DEF | -0.40 | -0.30 | -0.78 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2008 | #138 | Robert James | DEF | -0.34 | -0.40 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 2019 | #152 | Qadree Ollison | OFF | -0.26 | -0.27 | -0.37 | -0.26 | -0.60 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.77 |
| 2014 | #139 | Prince Shembo | DEF | -0.30 | -0.24 | -0.70 | -0.19 | -0.51 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 2019 | #111 | Kendall Sheffield | DEF | -0.28 | -0.24 | -0.19 | -0.40 | -0.50 | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.82 |
| 2018 | #26 | Calvin Ridley | OFF | -0.53 | -0.46 | -0.26 | -0.17 | +0.68 | -0.90 | -0.43 | -0.83 |
| 2019 | #203 | Marcus Green | OFF | -0.59 | -0.23 | -0.98 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2014 | #168 | Marquis Spruill | DEF | -0.63 | -0.27 | -0.93 | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| 2015 | #225 | Jake Rodgers | OFF | -0.67 | -0.48 | -0.39 | -0.36 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 2014 | #6 | Jake Matthews | OFF | +2.04 | +2.68 | +2.62 | +1.59 | -1.48 | -3.55 | -3.54 | -1.04 |
| 2016 | #17 | Keanu Neal | DEF | -0.57 | -0.21 | -0.66 | -0.62 | -0.41 | +0.37 | -0.49 | -1.06 |
| 2018 | #58 | Isaiah Oliver | DEF | -0.06 | -0.12 | -0.30 | -0.46 | -0.69 | -0.43 | -0.27 | -1.08 |
| 2015 | #42 | Jalen Collins | DEF | -0.38 | -0.46 | -0.93 | -0.37 | -0.54 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.11 |
| 2018 | #90 | Deadrin Senat | DEF | -0.49 | -0.58 | -0.98 | -0.39 | -0.34 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.11 |
| 2014 | #68 | Dezmen Southward | DEF | -0.36 | -0.50 | -0.73 | -0.32 | -0.95 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.21 |
| 2020 | #47 | Marlon Davidson | DEF | -0.79 | -0.88 | -0.83 | -0.65 | -0.39 | -0.20 | -0.08 | -1.49 |
| 2017 | #26 | Takkarist McKinley | DEF | -0.51 | -0.71 | -0.83 | -0.67 | -0.45 | -0.56 | -0.23 | -1.63 |
| 2010 | #19 | Sean Weatherspoon | DEF | -0.41 | -0.25 | -1.18 | -0.38 | -0.94 | -0.46 | -0.32 | -1.66 |
| 2017 | #75 | Duke Riley | DEF | -0.78 | -0.69 | -0.90 | -0.74 | -0.45 | -0.36 | -0.23 | -1.67 |
| 2017 | #136 | Sean Harlow | OFF | -1.07 | -0.86 | -1.27 | -0.70 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.86 |
| 2017 | #174 | Eric Saubert | OFF | -0.75 | -0.99 | -0.49 | -0.72 | -1.70 | -0.22 | -0.12 | -2.12 |
| 2010 | #83 | Corey Peters | DEF | -0.70 | -0.35 | -0.59 | -0.75 | -1.42 | -0.74 | -0.43 | -2.21 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.