A.J. Smith
LAC · Composite skill θ = +0.60 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.06 to +1.13
Evidence: 74 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 2003–2012 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.36
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2003–2012LACSpans San Diego era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | #50 | Marcus McNeill | OFF | +3.93 |
| 2004 | #98 | Shaun Phillips | DEF | +3.13 |
| 2006 | #187 | Jeromey Clary | OFF | +2.67 |
| 2004 | #209 | Shane Olivea | OFF | +2.64 |
| 2004 | #65 | Nate Kaeding | ST | +2.60 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #130 | Darren Sproles | OFF | -3.37 |
| 2006 | #81 | Charlie Whitehurst | OFF | -2.56 |
| 2007 | #129 | Scott Chandler | OFF | -1.88 |
| 2003 | #46 | Drayton Florence | DEF | -1.54 |
| 2004 | #133 | Dave Ball | DEF | -1.35 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 74 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2006 | #50 | Marcus McNeill | OFF | +1.02 | +1.44 | — | +1.66 | — | +2.12 | -0.04 | +3.93 |
| 2004 | #98 | Shaun Phillips | DEF | +1.47 | +1.66 | — | +1.19 | — | +0.86 | -0.13 | +3.13 |
| 2006 | #187 | Jeromey Clary | OFF | +1.51 | +1.82 | +0.94 | +1.68 | +0.90 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +2.67 |
| 2004 | #209 | Shane Olivea | OFF | +1.13 | +1.42 | — | +1.38 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +2.64 |
| 2004 | #65 | Nate Kaeding | ST | +1.23 | -0.77 | — | +0.39 | — | +1.98 | +1.98 | +2.60 |
| 2005 | #12 | Shawne Merriman | DEF | -0.23 | -0.07 | — | +0.26 | — | +2.88 | +1.85 | +2.47 |
| 2004 | #66 | Nick Hardwick | OFF | +1.34 | +2.10 | -0.86 | +2.02 | +0.75 | +0.62 | -0.32 | +2.39 |
| 2005 | #28 | Luis Castillo | DEF | +0.73 | +1.20 | — | +0.74 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | +1.61 |
| 2007 | #37 | Eric Weddle | DEF | +0.23 | +0.80 | -0.93 | +0.74 | +1.36 | -1.14 | +2.17 | +1.59 |
| 2012 | #149 | Johnnie Troutman | OFF | +0.15 | +0.29 | +1.29 | +0.37 | +1.65 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.57 |
| 2012 | #49 | Kendall Reyes | DEF | +0.70 | +0.84 | +1.30 | +0.57 | +0.67 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.54 |
| 2003 | #62 | Terrence Kiel | DEF | +0.75 | +1.03 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.40 |
| 2005 | #61 | Vincent Jackson | OFF | +0.03 | +0.36 | — | +0.73 | — | +1.42 | -0.49 | +1.40 |
| 2012 | #110 | Ladarius Green | OFF | +0.45 | +0.38 | +1.21 | +0.38 | +0.58 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.14 |
| 2010 | #79 | Donald Butler | DEF | +0.54 | +0.92 | +0.68 | +0.56 | +0.20 | -0.11 | -0.07 | +1.00 |
| 2003 | #188 | Hanik Milligan | DEF | +0.38 | -0.01 | — | +0.24 | — | +1.09 | -0.01 | +0.97 |
| 2005 | #242 | Scott Mruczkowski | OFF | +1.33 | -0.04 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.95 |
| 2009 | #113 | Vaughn Martin | DEF | +0.59 | +0.54 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.94 |
| 2004 | #35 | Igor Olshansky | DEF | +0.40 | +0.85 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | +0.92 |
| 2009 | #78 | Louis Vasquez | OFF | +0.21 | +0.60 | — | +0.59 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | +0.92 |
| 2009 | #133 | Tyronne Green | OFF | +0.46 | +0.41 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.88 |
| 2012 | #18 | Melvin Ingram | DEF | +0.19 | +0.45 | +0.33 | +0.41 | +0.30 | +1.40 | -1.01 | +0.86 |
| 2010 | #12 | Ryan Mathews | OFF | -0.03 | +0.16 | -0.41 | +0.45 | +1.05 | +0.64 | -0.26 | +0.85 |
| 2004 | #204 | Ryon Bingham | DEF | +0.88 | +0.09 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.81 |
| 2007 | #240 | Brandon Siler | DEF | +0.83 | +0.12 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.74 |
| 2007 | #172 | Legedu Naanee | OFF | +0.71 | +0.05 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.54 |
| 2003 | #229 | Andrew Pinnock | OFF | +0.73 | +0.20 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.54 |
| 2008 | #69 | Jacob Hester | OFF | +0.78 | +0.31 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.43 |
| 2008 | #27 | Antoine Cason | DEF | +0.62 | +0.29 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.18 | -0.12 | +0.40 |
| 2006 | #188 | Kurt Smith | ST | -0.38 | +0.29 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2011 | #201 | Stephen Schilling | OFF | +0.01 | -0.21 | +1.08 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2011 | #234 | Andrew Gachkar | DEF | +0.68 | -0.24 | +0.90 | -0.13 | -0.31 | -0.03 | -0.03 | +0.20 |
| 2003 | #30 | Sammy Davis | DEF | +0.22 | +0.20 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.15 |
| 2011 | #82 | Vincent Brown | OFF | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.71 | +0.04 | -0.37 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.09 |
| 2010 | #146 | Cam Thomas | DEF | +0.20 | -0.26 | +0.58 | -0.17 | +0.07 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.07 |
| 2003 | #112 | Matt Wilhelm | DEF | +0.52 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.06 |
| 2004 | #169 | Ryan Krause | OFF | -0.31 | -0.06 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2011 | #18 | Corey Liuget | DEF | +0.55 | +1.07 | +0.06 | +0.38 | -0.18 | -0.86 | -0.43 | +0.02 |
| 2009 | #189 | Kevin Ellison | DEF | -0.18 | +0.11 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2010 | #168 | Jonathan Crompton | OFF | -0.14 | +0.07 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2010 | #235 | Dedrick Epps | OFF | -0.39 | -0.06 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2006 | #225 | Chase Page | DEF | -0.29 | +0.05 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2003 | #149 | Mike Scifres | ST | +2.54 | -1.30 | — | -0.10 | -0.60 | -0.34 | -0.38 | -0.09 |
| 2010 | #110 | Darrell Stuckey | DEF | +1.15 | -0.61 | -0.13 | -0.10 | -0.32 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.14 |
| 2011 | #89 | Shareece Wright | DEF | -0.23 | -0.14 | +0.45 | -0.28 | +0.10 | -0.14 | -0.10 | -0.18 |
| 2009 | #224 | Demetrius Byrd | OFF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2008 | #192 | DeJuan Tribble | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2004 | #254 | Carlos Joseph | OFF | -0.25 | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.22 |
| 2012 | #250 | Edwin Baker | OFF | -0.38 | +0.03 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2006 | #151 | Tim Dobbins | DEF | +0.37 | -0.44 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.29 |
| 2012 | #226 | David Molk | OFF | -0.12 | -0.24 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2008 | #234 | Corey Clark | OFF | -0.28 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2006 | #227 | Jimmy Martin | OFF | -0.31 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2008 | #166 | Marcus Thomas | OFF | -0.46 | -0.03 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2009 | #148 | Brandon Hughes | DEF | -0.50 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2005 | #177 | Wes Sims | OFF | -0.37 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2005 | #164 | Wesley Britt | OFF | -0.42 | -0.25 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2009 | #134 | Gartrell Johnson | OFF | -0.54 | -0.12 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2003 | #80 | Courtney Van Buren | OFF | -0.40 | -0.28 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2004 | #154 | Michael Turner | OFF | +0.17 | -0.71 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.60 |
| 2006 | #19 | Antonio Cromartie | DEF | -0.67 | -0.85 | — | -0.56 | — | +0.08 | +1.32 | -0.62 |
| 2007 | #96 | Anthony Waters | DEF | -0.51 | -0.34 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2007 | #30 | Craig Davis | OFF | -0.26 | -0.59 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.76 |
| 2012 | #73 | Brandon Taylor | DEF | -0.66 | -0.41 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.83 |
| 2011 | #50 | Marcus Gilchrist | DEF | -0.38 | -0.36 | -0.15 | -0.62 | +0.07 | -0.55 | -0.40 | -1.05 |
| 2011 | #183 | Jordan Todman | OFF | -0.87 | -0.40 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.12 |
| 2011 | #61 | Jonas Mouton | DEF | -0.80 | -0.55 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.18 |
| 2009 | #16 | Larry English | DEF | -0.03 | -0.89 | -0.16 | -0.76 | — | -0.17 | -0.11 | -1.26 |
| 2004 | #1 | Eli Manning | OFF | -3.15 | -3.28 | — | +3.33 | — | -0.75 | -2.04 | -1.28 |
| 2004 | #133 | Dave Ball | DEF | -0.87 | -0.64 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.35 |
| 2003 | #46 | Drayton Florence | DEF | -0.23 | -0.41 | — | -0.75 | — | -0.52 | -0.42 | -1.54 |
| 2007 | #129 | Scott Chandler | OFF | -1.36 | -0.94 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -1.88 |
| 2006 | #81 | Charlie Whitehurst | OFF | -1.49 | -1.24 | -0.62 | -1.28 | — | -0.26 | -0.06 | -2.56 |
| 2005 | #130 | Darren Sproles | OFF | -0.86 | -1.93 | — | -1.06 | — | -0.98 | -0.84 | -3.37 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.