Harry Gamble
PHI · Composite skill θ = +0.20 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.49 to +0.90
Evidence: 68 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 1985–1994 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.25
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1985–1994PHIPresident + de facto GM; pre-Lurie-era 1985-1994
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | #9 | Jerome Brown | DEF | +5.43 |
| 1991 | #104 | William Thomas | DEF | +3.97 |
| 1988 | #13 | Keith Jackson | OFF | +3.90 |
| 1987 | #93 | Byron Evans | DEF | +2.90 |
| 1988 | #30 | Eric Allen | DEF | +2.85 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #193 | Mitch Berger | ST | -4.99 |
| 1986 | #10 | Keith Byars | OFF | -3.78 |
| 1994 | #42 | Charlie Garner | OFF | -2.26 |
| 1991 | #48 | Jesse Campbell | DEF | -2.17 |
| 1985 | #9 | Kevin Allen | OFF | -2.04 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 68 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1987 | #9 | Jerome Brown | DEF | +0.81 | +0.81 | — | +1.43 | — | +2.12 | +4.27 | +5.43 |
| 1991 | #104 | William Thomas | DEF | +1.50 | +2.18 | — | +1.83 | — | +0.81 | -0.22 | +3.97 |
| 1988 | #13 | Keith Jackson | OFF | -0.42 | -0.09 | — | -0.26 | — | +2.66 | +6.16 | +3.90 |
| 1987 | #93 | Byron Evans | DEF | +1.44 | +1.65 | — | +1.45 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | +2.90 |
| 1988 | #30 | Eric Allen | DEF | -0.18 | +0.64 | — | +1.00 | — | +2.56 | +0.68 | +2.85 |
| 1990 | #133 | Calvin Williams | OFF | +1.40 | +1.85 | — | +1.14 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +2.73 |
| 1991 | #156 | Andy Harmon | DEF | +1.29 | +1.30 | — | +1.42 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.70 |
| 1990 | #77 | Fred Barnett | OFF | +0.74 | +1.28 | — | +1.05 | — | +0.97 | -0.06 | +2.52 |
| 1987 | #121 | David Alexander | OFF | +1.42 | +1.71 | — | +1.08 | — | -0.20 | -0.12 | +2.49 |
| 1989 | #162 | Heath Sherman | OFF | +1.41 | +0.72 | — | +0.85 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.91 |
| 1986 | #106 | Matt Darwin | OFF | +0.88 | +1.03 | — | +0.71 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.65 |
| 1985 | #37 | Randall Cunningham | OFF | -0.36 | +0.10 | — | +1.32 | — | +0.93 | -0.53 | +1.39 |
| 1986 | #37 | Anthony Toney | OFF | +0.75 | +0.97 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.35 |
| 1991 | #187 | James Joseph | OFF | +1.14 | +0.42 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.19 |
| 1985 | #156 | Ken Reeves | OFF | +0.99 | +0.42 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.01 |
| 1994 | #77 | Joe Panos | OFF | +0.29 | +0.29 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.45 |
| 1985 | #121 | Dwayne Jiles | DEF | +0.62 | -0.05 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 1991 | #8 | Antone Davis | OFF | +0.47 | +0.51 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.25 | -0.15 | +0.31 |
| 1989 | #49 | Jessie Small | DEF | +0.30 | +0.10 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.21 |
| 1988 | #122 | Eric Everett | DEF | +0.26 | -0.11 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 1992 | #160 | Jeff Sydner | OFF | +0.47 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 1993 | #163 | Derrick Oden | DEF | +0.39 | -0.11 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 1994 | #103 | Eric Zomalt | DEF | +0.20 | -0.10 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 1988 | #149 | Don McPherson | OFF | -0.12 | +0.10 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1987 | #65 | Ben Tamburello | OFF | +0.49 | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| 1993 | #190 | Joey Mickey | OFF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1986 | #121 | Ray Criswell | ST | -0.56 | +0.14 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1993 | #50 | Victor Bailey | OFF | +0.07 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| 1994 | #206 | Mark Montgomery | OFF | -0.31 | +0.11 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 1992 | #75 | Tommy Jeter | DEF | +0.26 | -0.28 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1989 | #76 | Robert Drummond | OFF | +0.21 | -0.22 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| 1992 | #129 | Corey Barlow | DEF | -0.22 | -0.12 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1990 | #162 | Kevin Thompson | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1988 | #176 | Todd White | OFF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1993 | #75 | Derrick Frazier | DEF | -0.16 | -0.18 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1994 | #144 | Marvin Goodwin | DEF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1988 | #160 | Rob Sterling | DEF | -0.43 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1987 | #158 | Chris Pike | DEF | -0.43 | -0.06 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.29 |
| 1986 | #176 | Byron Lee | DEF | -0.36 | -0.06 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1986 | #169 | Corn Redick | OFF | -0.42 | -0.06 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1994 | #174 | Ryan McCoy | DEF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1992 | #187 | William Boatwright | OFF | -0.35 | -0.18 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1990 | #189 | Terry Strouf | OFF | -0.36 | -0.18 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1986 | #149 | Bob Landsee | OFF | -0.27 | -0.24 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1986 | #128 | Dan McMillen | DEF | -0.49 | -0.12 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1987 | #177 | Brian Williams | OFF | -0.41 | -0.23 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1993 | #77 | Mike Reid | DEF | -0.32 | -0.29 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1992 | #92 | Tony Brooks | OFF | -0.46 | -0.16 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1987 | #149 | Ron Moten | DEF | -0.55 | -0.18 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 1989 | #81 | Britt Hager | DEF | +0.65 | -0.73 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.59 |
| 1986 | #48 | Alonzo Johnson | DEF | -0.44 | -0.33 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 1991 | #131 | Craig Erickson | OFF | -0.54 | -0.27 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.69 |
| 1992 | #48 | Siran Stacy | OFF | -0.37 | -0.39 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 1990 | #22 | Ben Smith | DEF | -0.36 | -0.36 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.92 |
| 1985 | #93 | Greg Naron | OFF | -0.65 | -0.47 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.93 |
| 1993 | #24 | Leonard Renfro | DEF | -0.30 | -0.60 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 1990 | #50 | Mike Bellamy | OFF | -0.58 | -0.43 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.94 |
| 1994 | #37 | Bruce Walker | DEF | -0.77 | -0.51 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.08 |
| 1988 | #64 | Matt Patchan | OFF | -0.71 | -0.56 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.09 |
| 1993 | #19 | Lester Holmes | OFF | -0.41 | -0.42 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.28 | -0.16 | -1.14 |
| 1991 | #75 | Rob Selby | OFF | -0.26 | -0.81 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.16 |
| 1994 | #14 | Bernard Williams | OFF | -0.56 | -0.58 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.18 |
| 1992 | #102 | Casey Weldon | OFF | -0.82 | -0.54 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -1.24 |
| 1985 | #9 | Kevin Allen | OFF | -0.70 | -1.11 | — | -1.06 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -2.04 |
| 1991 | #48 | Jesse Campbell | DEF | -1.35 | -1.00 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.14 | -0.09 | -2.17 |
| 1994 | #42 | Charlie Garner | OFF | -0.45 | -1.08 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.77 | -0.46 | -2.26 |
| 1986 | #10 | Keith Byars | OFF | -0.27 | +0.10 | — | -0.43 | — | -3.95 | -2.56 | -3.78 |
| 1994 | #193 | Mitch Berger | ST | -2.72 | -1.87 | — | -2.21 | — | -0.42 | -0.56 | -4.99 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.