Steve Keim
ARI · Composite skill θ = -0.18 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.03 to +0.68
Composite θ
-0.18
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.03–+0.68
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
34%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Bad
directional only
Evidence: 74 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 2013–2022 · 87% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.10
- maturity discount
- +0.03
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2013–2022ARIGM 2013-2022; fired
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | #36 | Budda Baker | DEF | +9.20 |
| 2022 | #55 | Trey McBride | OFF | +4.68 |
| 2015 | #86 | David Johnson | OFF | +2.41 |
| 2019 | #1 | Kyler Murray | OFF | +2.09 |
| 2015 | #116 | Rodney Gunter | DEF | +1.52 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | #13 | Haason Reddick | DEF | -3.41 |
| 2018 | #10 | Josh Rosen | OFF | -2.80 |
| 2014 | #120 | Logan Thomas | OFF | -2.27 |
| 2015 | #24 | D.J. Humphries | OFF | -2.02 |
| 2013 | #7 | Jonathan Cooper | OFF | -1.98 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 74 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2017 | #36 | Budda Baker | DEF | +1.48 | +2.04 | +1.71 | +1.87 | +1.40 | +7.91 | +3.75 | +9.20 |
| 2022 | #55 | Trey McBride | OFF | +0.66 | +0.97 | +1.14 | +1.06 | +2.26 | +2.08 | +2.11 | +4.68 |
| 2015 | #86 | David Johnson | OFF | +0.10 | +0.39 | +1.15 | +0.67 | +0.30 | +0.77 | +1.97 | +2.41 |
| 2019 | #1 | Kyler Murray | OFF | +0.80 | +0.74 | +0.43 | +1.42 | +0.42 | +1.25 | -0.22 | +2.09 |
| 2015 | #116 | Rodney Gunter | DEF | +1.19 | +0.74 | +1.26 | +0.61 | +0.34 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.52 |
| 2013 | #187 | Andre Ellington | OFF | +0.97 | +0.34 | +1.25 | +0.66 | +0.46 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.39 |
| 2015 | #159 | JJ Nelson | OFF | +0.79 | +0.20 | +0.61 | +0.33 | +1.00 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.18 |
| 2021 | #136 | Marco Wilson | DEF | +0.24 | +0.60 | +0.72 | +0.25 | +0.71 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.95 |
| 2014 | #27 | Deone Bucannon | DEF | +0.27 | +0.39 | +0.38 | +0.39 | +0.49 | -0.29 | -0.19 | +0.55 |
| 2019 | #249 | Michael Dogbe | DEF | +0.45 | -0.02 | +0.13 | +0.05 | +0.32 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 2014 | #160 | Ed Stinson | DEF | +0.15 | -0.04 | +0.28 | +0.10 | +0.20 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 2022 | #256 | Jesse Luketa | DEF | +0.44 | +0.08 | +0.43 | +0.10 | -0.19 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2022 | #201 | Keaontay Ingram | OFF | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.22 | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 2016 | #128 | Evan Boehm | OFF | +0.06 | -0.25 | +0.25 | -0.10 | +0.47 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.18 |
| 2021 | #210 | Victor Dimukeje | DEF | +0.70 | -0.04 | +0.42 | +0.05 | -0.42 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 2022 | #244 | Christian Matthew | DEF | +0.00 | -0.02 | -0.39 | +0.03 | +0.39 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2021 | #16 | Zaven Collins | DEF | +0.67 | +0.58 | -0.10 | -0.01 | -0.19 | -0.35 | -0.19 | +0.01 |
| 2018 | #254 | Korey Cunningham | OFF | -0.36 | -0.17 | +0.93 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2020 | #131 | Rashard Lawrence | DEF | -0.16 | -0.03 | -1.18 | -0.04 | +0.97 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| 2015 | #58 | Markus Golden | DEF | +0.44 | +0.14 | +0.06 | +0.06 | -0.17 | -0.40 | -0.18 | -0.13 |
| 2013 | #140 | Stepfan Taylor | OFF | +0.88 | -0.06 | +0.58 | -0.07 | -1.11 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| 2015 | #256 | Gerald Christian | OFF | -0.46 | -0.12 | -0.35 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2013 | #69 | Tyrann Mathieu | DEF | -0.70 | -0.22 | -0.46 | -0.50 | +0.71 | -1.01 | +1.34 | -0.19 |
| 2020 | #114 | Leki Fotu | DEF | +0.35 | -0.03 | +0.07 | -0.07 | -0.47 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.20 |
| 2020 | #72 | Josh Jones | OFF | -0.02 | -0.39 | -0.39 | -0.22 | +0.62 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.22 |
| 2013 | #219 | D.C. Jefferson | OFF | -0.38 | -0.13 | -0.59 | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2019 | #174 | KeeSean Johnson | OFF | -0.21 | -0.14 | -0.62 | -0.08 | +0.32 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| 2016 | #205 | Harlan Miller | DEF | -0.35 | -0.12 | -0.17 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2018 | #97 | Mason Cole | OFF | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.30 | -0.12 | -0.49 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.24 |
| 2017 | #157 | Will Holden | OFF | -0.38 | -0.27 | -0.02 | -0.20 | +0.20 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 2019 | #65 | Zach Allen | DEF | -0.25 | +0.02 | +0.02 | -0.08 | +0.02 | -0.23 | -0.09 | -0.26 |
| 2022 | #215 | Lecitus Smith | OFF | -0.25 | -0.27 | +0.35 | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2013 | #103 | Alex Okafor | DEF | -0.47 | -0.34 | -0.20 | -0.30 | +0.66 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.30 |
| 2014 | #196 | Walt Powell | OFF | -0.48 | -0.13 | +0.08 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2014 | #84 | Kareem Martin | DEF | +0.21 | -0.36 | -0.05 | -0.20 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.31 |
| 2014 | #91 | John Brown | OFF | -0.19 | -0.36 | +0.25 | -0.14 | +0.21 | -0.34 | -0.19 | -0.33 |
| 2019 | #33 | Byron Murphy | DEF | -0.15 | +0.12 | +0.43 | -0.17 | -0.04 | -0.45 | -0.27 | -0.34 |
| 2013 | #116 | Earl Watford | OFF | -0.01 | -0.25 | -0.31 | -0.14 | -0.04 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.35 |
| 2016 | #92 | Brandon Williams | DEF | +0.31 | -0.35 | -0.28 | -0.13 | -0.31 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.37 |
| 2018 | #47 | Christian Kirk | OFF | -0.24 | -0.10 | +0.45 | -0.01 | +0.10 | -0.61 | -0.29 | -0.37 |
| 2020 | #222 | Eno Benjamin | OFF | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.57 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| 2018 | #134 | Chase Edmonds | OFF | +0.04 | -0.41 | +0.39 | -0.05 | -0.36 | -0.28 | -0.16 | -0.42 |
| 2019 | #139 | Deionte Thompson | DEF | +0.33 | -0.20 | -0.71 | -0.09 | -0.39 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.46 |
| 2022 | #87 | Cameron Thomas | DEF | +0.01 | -0.33 | -0.25 | -0.19 | -0.28 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| 2019 | #254 | Caleb Wilson | OFF | -0.57 | -0.22 | -0.76 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2021 | #49 | Rondale Moore | OFF | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.74 | -0.11 | -0.02 | -0.19 | -0.08 | -0.52 |
| 2013 | #174 | Ryan Swope | OFF | -0.50 | -0.14 | -0.66 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 2022 | #257 | Marquis Hayes | OFF | -0.42 | -0.27 | -0.54 | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2017 | #179 | T.J. Logan | OFF | -0.37 | -0.17 | -0.59 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 2019 | #248 | Joshua Miles | OFF | -0.32 | -0.54 | +0.04 | -0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.64 |
| 2017 | #208 | Rudy Ford | DEF | -0.38 | -0.51 | -0.07 | -0.36 | -0.21 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.66 |
| 2016 | #167 | Marqui Christian | DEF | -0.79 | -0.41 | +0.13 | -0.31 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.70 |
| 2015 | #158 | Shaquille Riddick | DEF | -0.57 | -0.21 | -0.85 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2021 | #223 | Tay Gowan | DEF | -0.63 | -0.27 | -0.56 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 2022 | #100 | Myjai Sanders | DEF | -0.41 | -0.26 | -0.88 | -0.20 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.74 |
| 2018 | #182 | Christian Campbell | DEF | -0.61 | -0.26 | -0.94 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 2019 | #62 | Andy Isabella | OFF | -0.01 | -0.54 | -0.84 | -0.38 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.82 |
| 2019 | #179 | Lamont Gaillard | OFF | -0.34 | -0.41 | -0.92 | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2021 | #243 | James Wiggins | DEF | -0.52 | -0.24 | -1.27 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| 2021 | #247 | Michal Menet | OFF | -0.60 | -0.42 | -0.96 | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.00 |
| 2014 | #52 | Troy Niklas | OFF | +0.06 | -0.13 | -0.68 | -0.24 | -1.18 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.01 |
| 2017 | #98 | Chad Williams | OFF | -0.39 | -0.20 | -0.54 | -0.32 | -0.91 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.04 |
| 2016 | #170 | Cole Toner | OFF | -0.74 | -0.58 | -0.38 | -0.45 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.06 |
| 2013 | #45 | Kevin Minter | DEF | -0.33 | -0.39 | -0.22 | -0.46 | -0.16 | -0.55 | -0.38 | -1.09 |
| 2020 | #202 | Evan Weaver | DEF | -0.71 | -0.35 | -1.33 | -0.31 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.14 |
| 2019 | #103 | Hakeem Butler | OFF | -0.81 | -0.45 | -1.17 | -0.40 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.26 |
| 2017 | #115 | Dorian Johnson | OFF | -0.75 | -0.56 | -1.19 | -0.41 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.28 |
| 2016 | #29 | Robert Nkemdiche | DEF | -0.59 | -0.81 | -0.93 | -0.63 | -0.55 | -0.17 | -0.07 | -1.49 |
| 2020 | #8 | Isaiah Simmons | DEF | -0.39 | -0.53 | -0.25 | -0.74 | -0.70 | -0.68 | -0.43 | -1.66 |
| 2013 | #7 | Jonathan Cooper | OFF | -0.79 | -1.23 | -0.72 | -1.14 | -0.50 | -0.32 | -0.19 | -1.98 |
| 2015 | #24 | D.J. Humphries | OFF | +0.03 | +0.54 | -0.26 | +0.12 | -0.80 | -2.20 | -1.36 | -2.02 |
| 2014 | #120 | Logan Thomas | OFF | -1.32 | -1.03 | -0.90 | -1.05 | — | -0.22 | -0.04 | -2.27 |
| 2018 | #10 | Josh Rosen | OFF | -0.59 | -0.65 | -0.46 | -0.93 | -3.34 | -0.17 | -0.03 | -2.80 |
| 2017 | #13 | Haason Reddick | DEF | -0.56 | -1.04 | -0.38 | -1.07 | -1.61 | -1.67 | -1.15 | -3.41 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.