Dennis Hickey
MIA · Composite skill θ = -0.37 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.99 to +0.26
Evidence: 15 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2014–2015 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.49
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2014–2015MIA
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #149 | Jay Ajayi | OFF | +1.62 |
| 2014 | #63 | Jarvis Landry | OFF | +1.56 |
| 2014 | #234 | Terrence Fede | DEF | +0.44 |
| 2015 | #156 | Tony Lippett | OFF | +0.36 |
| 2014 | #125 | Walt Aikens | DEF | -0.07 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #67 | Billy Turner | OFF | -2.79 |
| 2015 | #52 | Jordan Phillips | DEF | -2.78 |
| 2014 | #19 | Ja'Wuan James | OFF | -1.88 |
| 2015 | #114 | Jamil Douglas | OFF | -1.51 |
| 2015 | #14 | DeVante Parker | OFF | -1.17 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 15 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2015 | #149 | Jay Ajayi | OFF | +0.13 | +0.34 | +1.04 | +0.44 | +0.76 | +1.06 | -0.02 | +1.62 |
| 2014 | #63 | Jarvis Landry | OFF | -0.10 | +0.35 | +0.98 | +0.27 | +0.58 | +1.71 | -0.26 | +1.56 |
| 2014 | #234 | Terrence Fede | DEF | +0.82 | -0.06 | +0.68 | +0.19 | -0.26 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 2015 | #156 | Tony Lippett | OFF | +0.03 | +0.14 | +0.32 | +0.07 | +0.38 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.36 |
| 2014 | #125 | Walt Aikens | DEF | +1.41 | -0.35 | +0.14 | -0.04 | -0.82 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| 2015 | #145 | Bobby McCain | DEF | +0.45 | +0.34 | +0.65 | -0.19 | -0.54 | -0.28 | -0.22 | -0.14 |
| 2014 | #171 | Jordan Tripp | DEF | -0.30 | -0.26 | +0.34 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.28 |
| 2014 | #190 | Matt Hazel | OFF | -0.37 | -0.11 | -0.27 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2014 | #155 | Arthur Lynch | OFF | -0.62 | -0.26 | -1.05 | +0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 2015 | #150 | Cedric Thompson | DEF | -0.61 | -0.25 | -1.10 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 2015 | #14 | DeVante Parker | OFF | +0.30 | +0.03 | +0.26 | -0.14 | -0.53 | -1.33 | -0.73 | -1.17 |
| 2015 | #114 | Jamil Douglas | OFF | -0.69 | -0.71 | -0.90 | -0.58 | -0.74 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.51 |
| 2014 | #19 | Ja'Wuan James | OFF | -0.41 | -0.11 | -0.86 | -0.45 | -0.77 | -1.03 | -0.60 | -1.88 |
| 2015 | #52 | Jordan Phillips | DEF | -1.01 | -0.99 | -0.88 | -1.17 | -1.06 | -0.94 | -0.46 | -2.78 |
| 2014 | #67 | Billy Turner | OFF | -1.39 | -1.22 | -1.24 | -1.20 | -0.75 | -0.67 | -0.40 | -2.79 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.