Mike McCormack
SEA · Composite skill θ = -0.04 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.80 to +0.71
Evidence: 39 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 1982–1988 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.17
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1982–1988SEAPresident/GM; covered 1982 (interim HC) + formally 1983-88; fired Jan 1989
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | #76 | Fredd Young | DEF | +4.45 |
| 1988 | #49 | Brian Blades | OFF | +3.38 |
| 1986 | #15 | John Williams | OFF | +2.56 |
| 1983 | #3 | Curt Warner | OFF | +2.35 |
| 1986 | #68 | Patrick Hunter | DEF | +1.85 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | #75 | Pete Metzelaars | OFF | -6.83 |
| 1986 | #153 | Eddie Anderson | DEF | -3.37 |
| 1984 | #22 | Terry Taylor | DEF | -2.88 |
| 1987 | #119 | Tommie Agee | OFF | -1.50 |
| 1985 | #53 | Owen Gill | OFF | -1.10 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 39 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1984 | #76 | Fredd Young | DEF | +0.26 | +0.34 | — | +0.97 | — | +4.28 | +2.09 | +4.45 |
| 1988 | #49 | Brian Blades | OFF | +1.75 | +1.80 | — | +1.55 | — | +0.44 | -0.35 | +3.38 |
| 1986 | #15 | John Williams | OFF | +0.91 | +1.42 | — | +1.28 | — | +0.93 | -0.68 | +2.56 |
| 1983 | #3 | Curt Warner | OFF | +0.49 | +0.79 | — | +0.89 | — | +2.25 | -0.61 | +2.35 |
| 1986 | #68 | Patrick Hunter | DEF | +1.15 | +1.44 | — | +0.82 | — | -0.32 | -0.21 | +1.85 |
| 1982 | #33 | Bruce Scholtz | DEF | +0.69 | +1.33 | — | +1.04 | — | -0.36 | -0.20 | +1.77 |
| 1985 | #193 | Ron Mattes | OFF | +0.80 | +0.87 | — | +0.77 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.56 |
| 1982 | #6 | Jeff Bryant | DEF | +1.59 | +2.14 | — | +1.27 | — | -2.49 | -1.26 | +1.27 |
| 1988 | #75 | Tommy Kane | OFF | +0.73 | +0.71 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.20 |
| 1984 | #49 | Daryl Turner | OFF | +0.62 | +0.60 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.88 |
| 1983 | #177 | Sam Merriman | DEF | +1.17 | -0.15 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 1987 | #131 | Ruben Rodriguez | ST | +0.35 | +0.00 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.46 |
| 1984 | #162 | John Kaiser | DEF | +0.60 | -0.19 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 1988 | #158 | Roy Hart | DEF | -0.03 | -0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1987 | #18 | Tony Woods | DEF | +0.15 | +0.47 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.60 | -0.27 | +0.03 |
| 1987 | #184 | Roland Barbay | DEF | -0.26 | -0.01 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.14 |
| 1988 | #185 | Ray Jackson | DEF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1987 | #45 | David Wyman | DEF | -0.23 | +0.24 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.33 | -0.20 | -0.21 |
| 1983 | #123 | Chris Castor | OFF | -0.02 | -0.20 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1986 | #181 | Paul Miles | OFF | -0.43 | +0.01 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1982 | #174 | Eugene Williams | DEF | -0.26 | -0.17 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1985 | #128 | Arnold Brown | DEF | -0.50 | -0.18 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1985 | #109 | Tony Davis | OFF | -0.64 | -0.28 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1986 | #126 | Bobby Joe Edmonds | OFF | -0.58 | -1.03 | — | -1.08 | — | +0.84 | +2.00 | -0.47 |
| 1987 | #104 | Mark Moore | DEF | -0.46 | -0.23 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1985 | #137 | Johnnie Jones | OFF | -0.54 | -0.09 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1988 | #101 | Kevin Harmon | OFF | -0.38 | -0.16 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1983 | #150 | Reginald Gipson | OFF | -0.54 | -0.09 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1984 | #189 | Sam Slater | OFF | -0.44 | -0.25 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1982 | #144 | Jack Campbell | OFF | -0.54 | -0.37 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 1984 | #86 | Rickey Hagood | DEF | -0.67 | -0.30 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 1985 | #123 | Mark Napolitan | OFF | -0.56 | -0.38 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 1985 | #81 | Danny Greene | OFF | -0.57 | -0.32 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 1987 | #185 | Derek Tennell | OFF | -0.84 | -0.43 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 1985 | #53 | Owen Gill | OFF | -0.81 | -0.42 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.10 |
| 1987 | #119 | Tommie Agee | OFF | -0.78 | -0.65 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -1.50 |
| 1984 | #22 | Terry Taylor | DEF | -0.58 | -0.60 | — | -0.95 | — | -1.58 | -1.09 | -2.88 |
| 1986 | #153 | Eddie Anderson | DEF | -1.86 | -1.44 | — | -1.48 | — | -0.27 | -0.22 | -3.37 |
| 1982 | #75 | Pete Metzelaars | OFF | -2.49 | -2.30 | — | -2.53 | — | -2.44 | -1.36 | -6.83 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.