Jay Zygmunt
LAR · Composite skill θ = -0.39 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.08 to +0.30
Evidence: 26 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2006–2008 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.35
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2006–2008LARPresident of Football Ops
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | #228 | Chris Chamberlain | DEF | +1.34 |
| 2007 | #154 | Clifton Ryan | DEF | +1.24 |
| 2006 | #113 | Victor Adeyanju | DEF | +1.15 |
| 2008 | #252 | David Vobora | DEF | +0.73 |
| 2008 | #101 | Justin King | DEF | +0.48 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | #65 | John Greco | OFF | -3.52 |
| 2008 | #2 | Chris Long | DEF | -2.52 |
| 2007 | #52 | Brian Leonard | OFF | -1.87 |
| 2007 | #13 | Adam Carriker | DEF | -1.06 |
| 2008 | #33 | Donnie Avery | OFF | -1.01 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 26 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2008 | #228 | Chris Chamberlain | DEF | +1.10 | +0.53 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.34 |
| 2007 | #154 | Clifton Ryan | DEF | +0.75 | +0.66 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.24 |
| 2006 | #113 | Victor Adeyanju | DEF | +0.76 | +0.54 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.15 |
| 2008 | #252 | David Vobora | DEF | +0.45 | +0.40 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.73 |
| 2008 | #101 | Justin King | DEF | +0.25 | +0.26 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.48 |
| 2006 | #242 | Mark Setterstrom | OFF | +0.17 | +0.20 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 2006 | #46 | Joe Klopfenstein | OFF | +0.33 | +0.47 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.29 |
| 2007 | #249 | Derek Stanley | OFF | +0.10 | +0.06 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2007 | #84 | Jonathan Wade | DEF | +0.50 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.14 |
| 2008 | #128 | Keenan Burton | OFF | +0.02 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 2007 | #248 | Keith Jackson | DEF | -0.27 | +0.06 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 2006 | #221 | Tim McGarigle | DEF | -0.10 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2006 | #144 | Marques Hagans | OFF | -0.35 | -0.07 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2006 | #243 | Tony Palmer | OFF | -0.29 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2006 | #68 | Claude Wroten | DEF | -0.04 | -0.35 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2007 | #190 | Ken Shackleford | OFF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2008 | #157 | Roy Schuening | OFF | -0.44 | -0.30 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2007 | #139 | Dustin Fry | OFF | -0.40 | -0.32 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2006 | #93 | Dominique Byrd | OFF | -0.50 | -0.48 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2006 | #15 | Tye Hill | DEF | -0.30 | -0.29 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.83 |
| 2006 | #77 | Jon Alston | DEF | -0.66 | -0.40 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 2008 | #33 | Donnie Avery | OFF | -0.51 | -0.20 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | -1.01 |
| 2007 | #13 | Adam Carriker | DEF | -0.44 | -0.38 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.12 | -0.05 | -1.06 |
| 2007 | #52 | Brian Leonard | OFF | -0.96 | -0.76 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.26 | -0.15 | -1.87 |
| 2008 | #2 | Chris Long | DEF | +0.43 | +0.24 | -1.21 | -0.59 | -0.96 | -1.81 | -1.31 | -2.52 |
| 2008 | #65 | John Greco | OFF | -1.38 | -1.61 | — | -1.53 | — | -0.60 | -0.40 | -3.52 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.