Rich McKay
TB · ATL · Composite skill θ = +0.78 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.23 to +1.33
Composite θ
+0.78
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.23–+1.33
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
100%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 102 mapped picks across 13 draft classes, 1995–2007 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.33
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1995–2003TBFounding-era GM; left for ATL Dec 2003
- 2004–2007ATLCame from TB Dec 2003
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | #28 | Derrick Brooks | DEF | +17.48 |
| 1997 | #66 | Ronde Barber | DEF | +11.68 |
| 1995 | #12 | Warren Sapp | DEF | +9.71 |
| 1996 | #35 | Mike Alstott | OFF | +7.59 |
| 2005 | #27 | Roddy White | OFF | +4.84 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | #90 | Matt Schaub | OFF | -5.51 |
| 2004 | #8 | DeAngelo Hall | DEF | -5.05 |
| 1997 | #169 | Al Harris | DEF | -4.92 |
| 2001 | #151 | Russ Hochstein | OFF | -3.52 |
| 1995 | #105 | Jerry Wilson | DEF | -3.01 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 102 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1995 | #28 | Derrick Brooks | DEF | +2.51 | +3.66 | — | +5.80 | — | +8.02 | +9.16 | +17.48 |
| 1997 | #66 | Ronde Barber | DEF | +2.69 | +3.88 | — | +3.70 | — | +4.22 | +5.18 | +11.68 |
| 1995 | #12 | Warren Sapp | DEF | +0.70 | +1.19 | — | +2.92 | — | +3.97 | +7.71 | +9.71 |
| 1996 | #35 | Mike Alstott | OFF | +1.75 | +2.19 | — | +0.90 | — | +3.52 | +5.92 | +7.59 |
| 2005 | #27 | Roddy White | OFF | +2.00 | +2.34 | -0.13 | +2.89 | -0.99 | +3.40 | +1.56 | +4.84 |
| 2002 | #157 | Jermaine Phillips | DEF | +1.32 | +1.46 | — | +1.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.04 | +2.42 |
| 1996 | #71 | Donnie Abraham | DEF | +0.78 | +1.13 | — | +1.00 | — | +0.95 | -0.11 | +2.37 |
| 2007 | #39 | Justin Blalock | OFF | +1.58 | +2.17 | +0.33 | +1.73 | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.15 | +1.91 |
| 1999 | #15 | Anthony McFarland | DEF | +0.85 | +0.99 | — | +0.75 | — | -0.22 | -0.11 | +1.51 |
| 2007 | #244 | Jason Snelling | OFF | +1.62 | -0.09 | +1.00 | +0.69 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.51 |
| 2007 | #109 | Stephen Nicholas | DEF | +1.40 | +0.74 | +0.16 | +0.69 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.41 |
| 2005 | #128 | Chauncey Davis | DEF | +1.45 | +0.22 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.34 |
| 1996 | #96 | Jason Odom | OFF | +0.57 | +0.75 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.19 |
| 1998 | #34 | Jacquez Green | OFF | +0.57 | +0.48 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.14 |
| 2003 | #168 | Sean Mahan | OFF | +1.10 | +0.53 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.13 |
| 2000 | #51 | Cosey Coleman | OFF | +0.60 | +0.78 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +1.09 |
| 2001 | #14 | Kenyatta Walker | OFF | +0.66 | +0.81 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.97 |
| 2005 | #59 | Jonathan Babineaux | DEF | +2.28 | +1.97 | +0.03 | +1.17 | -1.25 | -0.55 | -0.30 | +0.96 |
| 1996 | #22 | Marcus Jones | DEF | +1.00 | +0.23 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.85 |
| 1997 | #16 | Reidel Anthony | OFF | +0.86 | +0.27 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.75 |
| 2004 | #142 | Chad Lavalais | DEF | +0.29 | +0.47 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.74 |
| 1998 | #45 | Brian Kelly | DEF | +1.14 | +0.60 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.47 | -0.37 | +0.67 |
| 1998 | #175 | James Cannida | DEF | +0.64 | +0.10 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| 1998 | #84 | Jamie Duncan | DEF | +0.40 | +0.32 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.62 |
| 2004 | #29 | Michael Jenkins | OFF | +0.83 | +0.42 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.41 | -0.23 | +0.61 |
| 1999 | #50 | Shaun King | OFF | +0.17 | +0.20 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 2006 | #79 | Jerious Norwood | OFF | +0.52 | -0.26 | — | +0.49 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.57 |
| 2005 | #160 | Michael Boley | DEF | +0.23 | +0.57 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | +0.56 |
| 2000 | #193 | David Gibson | DEF | +0.51 | +0.02 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.46 |
| 1995 | #43 | Melvin Johnson | DEF | +0.29 | +0.24 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.45 |
| 2002 | #233 | Tim Wansley | DEF | +0.06 | +0.23 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 2000 | #234 | Joe Hamilton | OFF | +0.11 | +0.27 | — | +0.22 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.41 |
| 2005 | #241 | Darrell Shropshire | DEF | +0.30 | +0.11 | — | +0.19 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.39 |
| 2001 | #84 | Dwight Smith | DEF | +0.33 | +0.14 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | +0.31 |
| 2007 | #185 | Trey Lewis | DEF | +0.06 | +0.17 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2006 | #223 | D.J. Shockley | OFF | +0.02 | +0.21 | — | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.29 |
| 2001 | #117 | John Howell | DEF | +0.62 | -0.10 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.29 |
| 2006 | #184 | Adam Jennings | OFF | +0.55 | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2001 | #183 | Ellis Wyms | DEF | +0.66 | -0.26 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.24 |
| 1997 | #63 | Frank Middleton | OFF | +0.26 | +0.32 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | +0.24 |
| 1998 | #184 | Shevin Smith | DEF | +0.13 | +0.01 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 2002 | #250 | Tracey Wistrom | OFF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 1999 | #240 | Darnell McDonald | OFF | -0.03 | +0.11 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2003 | #205 | Torrie Cox | DEF | +0.64 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 1997 | #37 | Jerry Wunsch | OFF | +0.54 | +0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.19 | -0.11 | +0.14 |
| 2007 | #194 | David Irons | DEF | +0.11 | -0.04 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2001 | #205 | Dauntae' Finger | OFF | -0.35 | -0.01 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1996 | #221 | Reggie Rusk | DEF | -0.14 | +0.07 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2003 | #64 | Dewayne White | DEF | +0.39 | -0.33 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.06 |
| 1999 | #150 | John McLaughlin | DEF | +0.05 | -0.03 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1995 | #227 | Jeff Rodgers | DEF | -0.24 | +0.10 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2007 | #203 | Daren Stone | DEF | -0.07 | -0.02 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 1999 | #80 | Martin Gramatica | ST | +0.51 | -0.87 | — | -0.13 | — | +0.87 | -0.20 | +0.03 |
| 2002 | #254 | Aaron Lockett | OFF | -0.21 | +0.11 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1996 | #140 | Jason Maniecki | DEF | +0.03 | -0.05 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 1998 | #212 | Chance McCarty | DEF | -0.27 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 1997 | #209 | Anthony DeGrate | DEF | -0.27 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2001 | #174 | Jameel Cook | OFF | +1.00 | +0.01 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.00 |
| 2004 | #101 | Demorrio Williams | DEF | +0.09 | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.14 | -0.11 | -0.01 |
| 1999 | #233 | Autry Denson | OFF | -0.26 | +0.15 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2001 | #223 | Than Merrill | DEF | -0.27 | +0.06 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 1995 | #179 | Wardell Rouse | DEF | -0.03 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2000 | #157 | James Whalen | OFF | -0.43 | -0.09 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1996 | #180 | Nilo Silvan | OFF | -0.15 | +0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2002 | #193 | John Stamper | DEF | -0.31 | +0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 1997 | #197 | Nigea Carter | OFF | -0.29 | +0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2004 | #219 | Quincy Wilson | OFF | -0.31 | +0.10 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1999 | #113 | Dexter Jackson | DEF | +0.23 | +0.09 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.14 | -0.12 | -0.10 |
| 2003 | #97 | Chris Simms | OFF | -0.17 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1999 | #195 | Lamarr Glenn | OFF | -0.33 | +0.09 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2004 | #186 | Etric Pruitt | DEF | -0.28 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2005 | #201 | DeAndra Cobb | OFF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2007 | #133 | Martrez Milner | OFF | -0.35 | -0.14 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2002 | #255 | Zack Quaccia | OFF | -0.23 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 1995 | #143 | Clifton Abraham | DEF | -0.27 | -0.07 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2007 | #8 | Jamaal Anderson | DEF | +0.22 | +0.10 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.14 | -0.07 | -0.23 |
| 1995 | #215 | Steve Ingram | OFF | -0.24 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 1999 | #226 | Robert Hunt | OFF | -0.27 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 2007 | #41 | Chris Houston | DEF | -0.15 | +0.11 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.24 |
| 2006 | #139 | Quinn Ojinnaka | OFF | +0.06 | -0.33 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.34 |
| 2007 | #198 | Doug Datish | OFF | -0.37 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1996 | #104 | Eric Austin | DEF | -0.47 | -0.18 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1997 | #137 | Patrick Hape | OFF | +0.40 | -0.44 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.42 |
| 2002 | #119 | Travis Stephens | OFF | -0.48 | -0.08 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2006 | #37 | Jimmy Williams | DEF | -0.18 | -0.39 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.55 |
| 2003 | #133 | Austin King | OFF | -0.47 | -0.30 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2003 | #130 | Lance Nimmo | OFF | -0.48 | -0.31 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 2005 | #90 | Jordan Beck | DEF | -0.32 | -0.34 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| 2002 | #86 | Marquis Walker | OFF | -0.57 | -0.24 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1997 | #128 | Alshermond Singleton | DEF | +0.53 | -0.69 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.14 | -0.12 | -0.65 |
| 2007 | #75 | Laurent Robinson | OFF | -0.35 | -0.34 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.65 |
| 2001 | #234 | Joe Tafoya | DEF | -0.64 | -0.25 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1997 | #12 | Warrick Dunn | OFF | -0.28 | -0.19 | — | +0.62 | — | -0.93 | -1.42 | -0.78 |
| 1998 | #104 | Todd Washington | OFF | +0.10 | -0.81 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.95 |
| 2000 | #90 | Nate Webster | DEF | +0.06 | -0.87 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.14 | -0.11 | -1.12 |
| 1996 | #12 | Regan Upshaw | DEF | -0.60 | -0.29 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.37 | -0.19 | -1.23 |
| 2005 | #163 | Frank Omiyale | OFF | -1.00 | -0.79 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.60 |
| 1995 | #105 | Jerry Wilson | DEF | -1.79 | -1.30 | — | -1.27 | — | -0.22 | -0.18 | -3.01 |
| 2001 | #151 | Russ Hochstein | OFF | -1.90 | -1.58 | — | -1.56 | — | -0.25 | -0.20 | -3.52 |
| 1997 | #169 | Al Harris | DEF | -2.61 | -2.00 | — | -2.21 | — | -0.37 | -0.42 | -4.92 |
| 2004 | #8 | DeAngelo Hall | DEF | -1.64 | -1.27 | — | -1.55 | — | -0.90 | -3.19 | -5.05 |
| 2004 | #90 | Matt Schaub | OFF | -1.77 | -2.43 | -2.54 | -2.67 | — | -0.91 | -0.26 | -5.51 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.