Ray Farmer
CLE · Composite skill θ = -0.25 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.85 to +0.36
Evidence: 18 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2014–2015 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.20
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2014–2015CLE
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #35 | Joel Bitonio | OFF | +7.01 |
| 2015 | #195 | Malcolm Johnson | OFF | -0.27 |
| 2015 | #189 | Charles Gaines | DEF | -0.30 |
| 2014 | #94 | Terrance West | OFF | -0.35 |
| 2015 | #219 | Hayes Pullard | DEF | -0.35 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #19 | Cameron Erving | OFF | -3.58 |
| 2014 | #8 | Justin Gilbert | DEF | -1.97 |
| 2015 | #12 | Danny Shelton | DEF | -1.40 |
| 2014 | #127 | Pierre Desir | DEF | -1.06 |
| 2015 | #51 | Nate Orchard | DEF | -0.96 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 18 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2014 | #35 | Joel Bitonio | OFF | +1.82 | +2.70 | +1.92 | +1.91 | -0.51 | +5.45 | +2.87 | +7.01 |
| 2015 | #195 | Malcolm Johnson | OFF | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.62 | +0.08 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2015 | #189 | Charles Gaines | DEF | -0.38 | -0.06 | -0.25 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2014 | #94 | Terrance West | OFF | -0.41 | -0.15 | +0.24 | -0.20 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.35 |
| 2015 | #219 | Hayes Pullard | DEF | -0.55 | -0.20 | +0.27 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2015 | #241 | Ifo Ekpre-Olomu | DEF | -0.44 | -0.10 | -0.47 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2014 | #71 | Christian Kirksey | DEF | +0.06 | +0.21 | +0.87 | -0.02 | -0.87 | -0.42 | -0.29 | -0.43 |
| 2015 | #198 | Randall Telfer | OFF | +0.17 | +0.32 | -0.43 | +0.09 | -0.94 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2015 | #77 | Duke Johnson | OFF | +0.12 | -0.67 | +0.72 | -0.06 | -0.68 | -0.36 | -0.19 | -0.59 |
| 2015 | #96 | Xavier Cooper | DEF | -0.08 | -0.32 | -0.10 | -0.15 | -0.78 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 2015 | #123 | Vince Mayle | OFF | -0.66 | -0.30 | -0.34 | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.72 |
| 2015 | #115 | Ibraheim Campbell | DEF | -0.19 | -0.38 | -0.11 | -0.34 | -0.49 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.73 |
| 2014 | #22 | Johnny Manziel | OFF | -0.39 | -0.46 | -0.67 | -0.47 | -0.27 | -0.08 | -0.01 | -0.93 |
| 2015 | #51 | Nate Orchard | DEF | -0.48 | -0.58 | -0.42 | -0.51 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.07 | -0.96 |
| 2014 | #127 | Pierre Desir | DEF | -0.79 | -0.63 | -0.28 | -0.57 | -0.22 | -0.13 | -0.09 | -1.06 |
| 2015 | #12 | Danny Shelton | DEF | -0.64 | -0.35 | -0.10 | -0.77 | -0.39 | -0.63 | -0.29 | -1.40 |
| 2014 | #8 | Justin Gilbert | DEF | -0.62 | -1.09 | -1.06 | -0.98 | -0.85 | -0.16 | -0.11 | -1.97 |
| 2015 | #19 | Cameron Erving | OFF | -1.23 | -1.38 | -0.93 | -1.39 | -1.60 | -1.14 | -0.66 | -3.58 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.