Brett Veach
KC · Composite skill θ = +0.40 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.16 to +1.97
Evidence: 55 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 2018–2025 · 54% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.38
- maturity discount
- -0.34
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2018–2025KCPromoted July 2017; first draft 2018
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #63 | Creed Humphrey | OFF | +7.46 |
| 2021 | #226 | Trey Smith | OFF | +4.00 |
| 2022 | #21 | Trent McDuffie | DEF | +2.99 |
| 2022 | #251 | Isiah Pacheco | OFF | +1.86 |
| 2018 | #75 | Derrick Nnadi | DEF | +1.84 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #196 | Tremon Smith | OFF | -1.48 |
| 2019 | #84 | Khalen Saunders | DEF | -1.40 |
| 2018 | #46 | Breeland Speaks | DEF | -1.39 |
| 2021 | #144 | Joshua Kaindoh | DEF | -1.22 |
| 2021 | #181 | Cornell Powell | OFF | -1.10 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 55 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2021 | #63 | Creed Humphrey | OFF | +1.03 | +1.48 | +1.52 | +1.76 | +2.00 | +4.23 | +4.23 | +7.46 |
| 2021 | #226 | Trey Smith | OFF | +1.28 | +1.74 | +2.03 | +1.37 | +1.12 | +2.15 | -0.02 | +4.00 |
| 2022 | #21 | Trent McDuffie | DEF | +0.27 | +0.63 | +0.44 | +0.69 | +2.50 | -0.17 | +2.06 | +2.99 |
| 2022 | #251 | Isiah Pacheco | OFF | +0.79 | +1.13 | +1.08 | +0.85 | +0.92 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.86 |
| 2018 | #75 | Derrick Nnadi | DEF | +1.66 | +1.65 | +0.17 | +0.98 | +0.77 | -0.29 | -0.12 | +1.84 |
| 2020 | #177 | Michael Danna | DEF | +1.24 | +0.89 | +1.05 | +0.71 | +0.34 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.55 |
| 2022 | #243 | Jaylen Watson | DEF | +0.85 | +0.70 | +1.14 | +0.56 | +0.69 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.51 |
| 2020 | #138 | L'Jarius Sneed | DEF | +0.42 | +0.93 | +1.14 | +0.43 | +0.74 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +1.34 |
| 2021 | #58 | Nick Bolton | DEF | +0.67 | +1.15 | +1.05 | +0.75 | +0.24 | -0.16 | -0.08 | +1.34 |
| 2023 | #119 | Chamarri Conner | DEF | +0.66 | +0.71 | +0.74 | +0.48 | +0.63 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.24 |
| 2022 | #103 | Leo Chenal | DEF | +0.77 | +0.76 | +0.45 | +0.52 | +0.71 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +1.23 |
| 2022 | #30 | George Karlaftis III | DEF | +0.56 | +0.86 | +1.02 | +0.59 | +0.36 | -0.12 | -0.04 | +1.21 |
| 2021 | #162 | Noah Gray | OFF | +1.22 | +0.56 | +1.49 | +0.42 | -0.28 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +1.12 |
| 2023 | #55 | Rashee Rice | OFF | -0.05 | +0.11 | -0.34 | +0.33 | +2.03 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.03 |
| 2022 | #62 | Bryan Cook | DEF | +0.63 | +0.75 | +0.29 | +0.40 | +0.61 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +1.00 |
| 2025 | #228 | Brashard Smith | OFF | +0.36 | +0.34 | +0.55 | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.68 |
| 2020 | #63 | Willie Gay Jr. | DEF | +0.11 | +0.39 | -0.33 | +0.20 | +1.17 | -0.22 | -0.13 | +0.56 |
| 2019 | #56 | Mecole Hardman | OFF | +0.44 | -0.24 | -0.49 | +0.17 | +0.53 | +0.72 | -0.17 | +0.52 |
| 2019 | #201 | Rashad Fenton | DEF | +0.53 | +0.19 | +0.28 | +0.14 | +0.00 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.39 |
| 2024 | #28 | Xavier Worthy | OFF | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.64 | -0.07 | -0.02 | +0.37 |
| 2023 | #194 | Keondre Coburn | DEF | -0.15 | +0.14 | +0.39 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 2022 | #259 | Nazeeh Johnson | DEF | +0.29 | +0.08 | +0.47 | +0.09 | -0.30 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 2025 | #156 | Jeffrey Bassa | DEF | +0.17 | +0.06 | +0.16 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2024 | #211 | Kamal Hadden | DEF | -0.19 | +0.11 | +0.22 | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2023 | #250 | Nic Jones | DEF | -0.03 | +0.04 | +0.12 | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2019 | #216 | Nick Allegretti | OFF | +0.81 | -0.40 | -0.43 | -0.15 | +0.46 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.07 |
| 2025 | #133 | Jalen Royals | OFF | -0.03 | +0.15 | +0.05 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2024 | #248 | C.J. Hanson | OFF | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.25 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2022 | #135 | Joshua Williams | DEF | +0.93 | +0.04 | +0.32 | +0.06 | -0.81 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.03 |
| 2024 | #159 | Hunter Nourzad | OFF | +0.38 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2024 | #63 | Kingsley Suamataia | OFF | +0.20 | +0.05 | +0.10 | +0.06 | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2023 | #92 | Wanya Morris | OFF | +0.42 | -0.03 | -0.14 | +0.00 | -0.19 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| 2024 | #133 | Jaden Hicks | DEF | +0.47 | +0.07 | +0.49 | +0.17 | -0.96 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2019 | #63 | Juan Thornhill | DEF | +0.21 | +0.45 | +0.34 | -0.04 | -0.33 | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.08 |
| 2024 | #131 | Jared Wiley | OFF | -0.11 | -0.03 | -0.58 | +0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2020 | #96 | Lucas Niang | OFF | -0.08 | -0.45 | -1.09 | -0.19 | +1.20 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.09 |
| 2025 | #85 | Nohl Williams | DEF | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.18 | +0.07 | -0.49 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2025 | #66 | Ashton Gillotte | DEF | +0.00 | -0.08 | +0.07 | -0.01 | -0.24 | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.14 |
| 2023 | #31 | Felix Anudike-Uzomah | DEF | +0.14 | -0.40 | -0.40 | -0.27 | +0.23 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2025 | #63 | Omarr Norman-Lott | DEF | -0.30 | -0.12 | -0.35 | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.38 |
| 2023 | #166 | BJ Thompson | DEF | -0.39 | -0.07 | -0.64 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2018 | #198 | Kahlil McKenzie | DEF | -0.57 | -0.20 | -0.23 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2020 | #237 | Thakarius Keyes | DEF | -0.38 | -0.20 | -0.59 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| 2019 | #214 | Darwin Thompson | OFF | +0.03 | -0.14 | -0.54 | -0.13 | -0.52 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| 2018 | #124 | Armani Watts | DEF | +0.54 | -0.35 | -0.63 | -0.14 | -0.72 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.61 |
| 2018 | #100 | Dorian O'Daniel | DEF | +0.52 | -0.50 | -0.16 | -0.23 | -0.87 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.65 |
| 2025 | #32 | Josh Simmons | OFF | -0.40 | -0.37 | -0.30 | -0.36 | -0.31 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 2022 | #145 | Darian Kinnard | OFF | -0.60 | -0.45 | -0.08 | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.74 |
| 2020 | #32 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | OFF | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.85 | -0.15 | +0.03 | -0.48 | -0.22 | -0.78 |
| 2022 | #54 | Skyy Moore | OFF | -0.02 | -0.28 | -0.64 | -0.35 | -0.72 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.93 |
| 2021 | #181 | Cornell Powell | OFF | -0.62 | -0.32 | -1.34 | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.10 |
| 2021 | #144 | Joshua Kaindoh | DEF | -0.69 | -0.38 | -1.59 | -0.30 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.22 |
| 2018 | #46 | Breeland Speaks | DEF | -0.61 | -0.58 | -1.45 | -0.45 | — | -0.09 | -0.03 | -1.39 |
| 2019 | #84 | Khalen Saunders | DEF | -0.35 | -0.73 | -0.82 | -0.53 | -0.75 | -0.18 | -0.07 | -1.40 |
| 2018 | #196 | Tremon Smith | OFF | -0.82 | -0.72 | -0.50 | -0.69 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | -1.48 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.