John Dorsey
KC · CLE · Composite skill θ = +0.71 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.15 to +1.27
Evidence: 54 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 2013–2019 · 98% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.16
- maturity discount
- -0.01
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2013–2017KCRan 2017 draft April 2017; fired June
- 2018–2019CLE
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #63 | Travis Kelce | OFF | +14.59 |
| 2016 | #37 | Chris Jones | DEF | +11.16 |
| 2016 | #165 | Tyreek Hill | OFF | +9.99 |
| 2017 | #10 | Patrick Mahomes | OFF | +9.20 |
| 2018 | #4 | Denzel Ward | DEF | +3.13 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #33 | Austin Corbett | OFF | -3.37 |
| 2016 | #106 | Eric Murray | DEF | -2.26 |
| 2015 | #76 | Chris Conley | OFF | -1.78 |
| 2015 | #49 | Mitch Morse | OFF | -1.68 |
| 2013 | #170 | Eric Kush | OFF | -1.64 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 54 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2013 | #63 | Travis Kelce | OFF | +2.04 | +3.04 | +3.41 | +3.54 | +3.22 | +9.17 | +7.59 | +14.59 |
| 2016 | #37 | Chris Jones | DEF | +1.71 | +2.07 | +2.06 | +3.52 | +2.15 | +6.73 | +6.03 | +11.16 |
| 2016 | #165 | Tyreek Hill | OFF | +0.58 | +0.88 | +1.47 | +2.09 | +3.44 | +6.25 | +6.25 | +9.99 |
| 2017 | #10 | Patrick Mahomes | OFF | +1.33 | +1.78 | +1.77 | +4.27 | +1.32 | +5.45 | +4.10 | +9.20 |
| 2018 | #4 | Denzel Ward | DEF | +0.76 | +1.03 | +0.83 | +0.58 | +1.01 | +4.04 | -1.12 | +3.13 |
| 2018 | #35 | Nick Chubb | OFF | +0.36 | +0.88 | +0.21 | +1.01 | +0.66 | +3.42 | -0.47 | +2.79 |
| 2015 | #18 | Marcus Peters | DEF | -0.85 | -0.44 | -0.32 | -0.04 | +3.03 | +0.10 | +1.46 | +1.75 |
| 2014 | #193 | Zach Fulton | OFF | +0.62 | +0.59 | +1.20 | +0.50 | +0.58 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +1.30 |
| 2015 | #118 | Ramik Wilson | DEF | -0.06 | +0.07 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +1.74 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.00 |
| 2017 | #86 | Kareem Hunt | OFF | -0.29 | -0.06 | +0.34 | +0.42 | +0.54 | +0.46 | -0.35 | +0.54 |
| 2014 | #200 | Laurent Duvernay-Tardif | OFF | +0.14 | +0.54 | +0.08 | +0.33 | +0.44 | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.52 |
| 2015 | #172 | D.J. Alexander | DEF | +0.14 | -0.25 | +0.63 | -0.02 | +0.38 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.33 |
| 2013 | #96 | Knile Davis | OFF | +0.61 | -0.24 | -0.19 | +0.13 | +0.46 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.31 |
| 2013 | #207 | Mike Catapano | DEF | -0.07 | -0.08 | +0.34 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2019 | #155 | Mack Wilson | DEF | -0.13 | +0.02 | +0.13 | -0.12 | +0.19 | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.07 |
| 2013 | #1 | Eric Fisher | OFF | +0.91 | +0.84 | +0.61 | +0.29 | -0.44 | +0.18 | -1.81 | -0.09 |
| 2014 | #163 | Aaron Murray | OFF | -0.22 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 2018 | #175 | Damion Ratley | OFF | +0.02 | -0.08 | -0.13 | -0.10 | +0.00 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| 2019 | #170 | Austin Seibert | ST | -0.46 | -0.15 | +0.15 | +0.04 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.17 |
| 2016 | #178 | D.J. White | DEF | -0.30 | -0.22 | +0.04 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| 2019 | #80 | Sione Takitaki | DEF | +0.37 | +0.02 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.28 | -0.27 | -0.16 | -0.30 |
| 2018 | #105 | Antonio Callaway | OFF | -0.29 | -0.06 | -0.22 | -0.15 | -0.17 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| 2019 | #119 | Sheldrick Redwine | DEF | -0.13 | -0.20 | -0.33 | -0.13 | -0.16 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| 2018 | #67 | Chad Thomas | DEF | -0.42 | -0.34 | -1.17 | -0.23 | +0.83 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| 2014 | #124 | De'Anthony Thomas | OFF | +0.62 | -0.23 | -0.41 | -0.11 | -0.58 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.41 |
| 2016 | #203 | Dadi Nicolas | DEF | -0.24 | -0.15 | -0.67 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2015 | #233 | Da'Ron Brown | OFF | -0.44 | -0.09 | -0.53 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2016 | #162 | Kevin Hogan | OFF | -0.47 | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2019 | #46 | Greedy Williams | DEF | -0.10 | -0.16 | -0.79 | -0.25 | -0.03 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.59 |
| 2017 | #218 | Leon McQuay | DEF | -0.50 | -0.15 | -0.79 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2017 | #183 | Ukeme Eligwe | DEF | -0.33 | -0.28 | -0.49 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.61 |
| 2013 | #134 | Sanders Commings | DEF | -0.55 | -0.25 | -0.62 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2018 | #188 | Simeon Thomas | DEF | -0.60 | -0.24 | -0.58 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.65 |
| 2014 | #23 | Dee Ford | DEF | -0.12 | -0.34 | -0.41 | -0.42 | -0.45 | +0.50 | -0.39 | -0.68 |
| 2017 | #139 | Jehu Chesson | OFF | -0.37 | -0.27 | -0.51 | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 2013 | #204 | Braden Wilson | OFF | -0.47 | -0.05 | -1.30 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 2015 | #98 | Steven Nelson | DEF | -0.30 | -0.06 | +0.28 | -0.39 | -0.52 | -0.29 | -0.21 | -0.74 |
| 2019 | #221 | Donnie Lewis Jr. | DEF | -0.57 | -0.22 | -0.90 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.74 |
| 2014 | #87 | Phillip Gaines | DEF | -0.16 | -0.32 | -0.13 | -0.32 | -0.65 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.79 |
| 2013 | #99 | Nico Johnson | DEF | -0.63 | -0.39 | -0.43 | -0.31 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 2016 | #126 | Demarcus Robinson | OFF | +0.63 | -0.07 | +0.49 | -0.52 | -1.14 | -0.44 | -0.26 | -0.83 |
| 2015 | #173 | James O'Shaughnessy | OFF | -0.44 | -0.43 | +0.07 | -0.24 | -0.79 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.84 |
| 2019 | #189 | Drew Forbes | OFF | -0.37 | -0.45 | -0.93 | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 2015 | #217 | Rakeem Nunez-Roches | DEF | -0.91 | -0.79 | -0.61 | -0.85 | +0.67 | -0.20 | -0.12 | -1.02 |
| 2018 | #150 | Genard Avery | DEF | -0.72 | -0.60 | -0.25 | -0.50 | -0.69 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -1.21 |
| 2017 | #59 | Tanoh Kpassagnon | DEF | -0.26 | -0.65 | -0.44 | -0.55 | -0.38 | -0.49 | -0.21 | -1.26 |
| 2018 | #1 | Baker Mayfield | OFF | -0.04 | -0.19 | -0.05 | -0.28 | -0.44 | -1.34 | -0.33 | -1.28 |
| 2016 | #105 | Parker Ehinger | OFF | -0.80 | -0.61 | -0.91 | -0.45 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.28 |
| 2016 | #74 | KeiVarae Russell | DEF | -1.04 | -0.68 | -0.69 | -0.54 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -1.42 |
| 2013 | #170 | Eric Kush | OFF | -1.06 | -0.86 | -0.64 | -0.71 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -1.64 |
| 2015 | #49 | Mitch Morse | OFF | -0.79 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.49 | -0.30 | -0.96 | -0.56 | -1.68 |
| 2015 | #76 | Chris Conley | OFF | -0.56 | -0.44 | -0.18 | -0.78 | -0.93 | -0.68 | -0.38 | -1.78 |
| 2016 | #106 | Eric Murray | DEF | -0.70 | -1.00 | -0.56 | -0.96 | -1.28 | -0.45 | -0.33 | -2.26 |
| 2018 | #33 | Austin Corbett | OFF | -1.36 | -1.52 | -1.53 | -1.32 | — | -0.76 | -0.40 | -3.37 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.