Floyd Reese
TEN · Composite skill θ = +0.76 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.20 to +1.33
Composite θ
+0.76
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.20–+1.33
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
100%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 120 mapped picks across 13 draft classes, 1994–2006 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.66
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1994–2006TENRan Oilers/Titans; long tenure
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #14 | Eddie George | OFF | +5.59 |
| 2000 | #30 | Keith Bulluck | DEF | +4.60 |
| 1998 | #139 | Benji Olson | OFF | +4.18 |
| 2006 | #215 | Cortland Finnegan | DEF | +3.79 |
| 2002 | #15 | Albert Haynesworth | DEF | +3.75 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #6 | Adam Jones | DEF | -8.27 |
| 2005 | #68 | Courtney Roby | OFF | -2.49 |
| 1996 | #109 | Jon Runyan | OFF | -2.44 |
| 2004 | #71 | Randy Starks | DEF | -1.93 |
| 1994 | #220 | Lemanski Hall | DEF | -1.21 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 120 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #14 | Eddie George | OFF | +1.32 | +2.04 | — | +2.25 | — | +1.56 | +1.77 | +5.59 |
| 2000 | #30 | Keith Bulluck | DEF | +1.62 | +1.80 | — | +1.93 | — | +0.35 | +1.57 | +4.60 |
| 1998 | #139 | Benji Olson | OFF | +2.21 | +2.70 | — | +1.84 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | +4.18 |
| 2006 | #215 | Cortland Finnegan | DEF | +0.88 | +1.28 | — | +1.17 | — | +1.01 | +2.07 | +3.79 |
| 2002 | #15 | Albert Haynesworth | DEF | +0.20 | +0.31 | — | +0.67 | — | +1.64 | +4.01 | +3.75 |
| 1995 | #3 | Steve McNair | OFF | +0.93 | +1.10 | — | +2.11 | — | +1.46 | -0.51 | +3.59 |
| 1999 | #16 | Jevon Kearse | DEF | -0.05 | +0.39 | — | +0.73 | — | +2.56 | +1.76 | +3.06 |
| 2005 | #41 | Michael Roos | OFF | +1.74 | +2.46 | -0.54 | +1.86 | -0.60 | +0.59 | +1.83 | +3.06 |
| 1998 | #46 | Samari Rolle | DEF | +0.44 | +0.80 | — | +0.76 | — | +0.63 | +1.79 | +2.59 |
| 2004 | #239 | Eugene Amano | OFF | +2.12 | +1.23 | — | +0.92 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.57 |
| 2005 | #179 | Bo Scaife | OFF | +1.56 | +1.46 | — | +1.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.50 |
| 1994 | #194 | Barron Wortham | DEF | +1.43 | +1.01 | — | +0.80 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +2.00 |
| 2005 | #113 | David Stewart | OFF | +1.45 | +2.12 | +0.16 | +1.53 | +0.09 | -0.13 | -0.09 | +1.94 |
| 1995 | #67 | Chris Sanders | OFF | +1.32 | +0.86 | — | +0.79 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +1.82 |
| 1998 | #229 | Kevin Long | OFF | +1.27 | +0.87 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.78 |
| 1997 | #98 | Derrick Mason | OFF | +0.19 | -0.14 | — | +0.31 | — | +1.33 | +1.49 | +1.74 |
| 2000 | #68 | Erron Kinney | OFF | +1.13 | +1.31 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.73 |
| 2002 | #240 | Carlos Hall | DEF | +0.86 | +0.96 | — | +0.82 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.73 |
| 2000 | #128 | Peter Sirmon | DEF | +1.03 | +0.96 | — | +0.70 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.66 |
| 2005 | #218 | Reynaldo Hill | DEF | +0.85 | +0.74 | — | +0.56 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.35 |
| 2006 | #3 | Vince Young | OFF | +0.38 | +0.09 | — | +0.06 | — | +2.05 | -0.03 | +1.30 |
| 1999 | #81 | Zach Piller | OFF | +0.90 | +0.62 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | +1.21 |
| 1994 | #26 | Henry Ford | DEF | +1.24 | +0.56 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.39 | -0.19 | +1.04 |
| 2001 | #60 | Andre Dyson | DEF | +0.43 | +0.93 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +1.03 |
| 2002 | #45 | Tank Williams | DEF | +0.43 | +0.92 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.99 |
| 2005 | #96 | Brandon Jones | OFF | +0.67 | +0.52 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.92 |
| 1994 | #157 | Roderick Lewis | OFF | +0.66 | +0.41 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.80 |
| 2002 | #187 | Justin Hartwig | OFF | +0.26 | +0.58 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.78 |
| 1995 | #35 | Anthony Cook | DEF | +0.46 | +0.41 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.77 |
| 2003 | #93 | Chris Brown | OFF | +0.32 | +0.28 | — | +0.52 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.76 |
| 1995 | #89 | Rodney Thomas | OFF | +1.23 | -0.21 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.66 |
| 1999 | #117 | Donald Mitchell | DEF | +0.58 | +0.19 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.64 |
| 2000 | #135 | Aric Morris | DEF | +0.70 | +0.18 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.64 |
| 2003 | #154 | Donnie Nickey | DEF | +1.96 | -0.41 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.61 |
| 2001 | #159 | Eddie Berlin | OFF | +1.01 | +0.00 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.60 |
| 2004 | #138 | Jacob Bell | OFF | +0.26 | +0.44 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.52 |
| 1997 | #107 | Pratt Lyons | DEF | +0.28 | +0.19 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2001 | #90 | Shad Meier | OFF | +0.65 | +0.08 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2004 | #230 | Jared Clauss | DEF | +0.44 | +0.13 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.51 |
| 1995 | #101 | Michael Roan | OFF | +0.73 | +0.12 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.50 |
| 2006 | #45 | LenDale White | OFF | +0.60 | +0.05 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.48 |
| 2000 | #213 | Mike Green | OFF | +0.48 | +0.20 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.45 |
| 2004 | #40 | Ben Troupe | OFF | +0.49 | +0.22 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.44 |
| 1998 | #16 | Kevin Dyson | OFF | +0.30 | +0.54 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | +0.41 |
| 2003 | #126 | Rien Long | DEF | +0.48 | +0.00 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 1996 | #143 | Rayna Stewart | DEF | +0.34 | +0.04 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.36 |
| 2005 | #136 | Roydell Williams | OFF | +0.32 | +0.16 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.36 |
| 2002 | #225 | Darrell Hill | OFF | +0.54 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.35 |
| 1997 | #75 | Denard Walker | DEF | +0.05 | +0.51 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.14 | -0.11 | +0.34 |
| 2004 | #191 | Troy Fleming | OFF | +0.34 | +0.11 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 1996 | #48 | Jason Layman | OFF | +0.75 | -0.18 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.26 |
| 2006 | #102 | Calvin Lowry | DEF | +0.20 | +0.07 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2004 | #57 | Antwan Odom | DEF | +0.16 | +0.23 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.25 |
| 2004 | #124 | Michael Waddell | DEF | +0.28 | -0.01 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 1996 | #218 | Mike Archie | OFF | +0.27 | +0.13 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 2006 | #246 | Quinton Ganther | OFF | +0.12 | +0.11 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 2001 | #124 | Justin McCareins | OFF | +0.15 | -0.04 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.17 |
| 1999 | #151 | Kevin Daft | OFF | -0.07 | +0.14 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 1994 | #101 | Malcolm Floyd | OFF | +0.58 | -0.14 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 2002 | #115 | Tony Beckham | DEF | +0.51 | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.14 |
| 2005 | #108 | Vincent Fuller | DEF | +0.87 | -0.42 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.14 |
| 1997 | #181 | Dennis Stallings | DEF | +0.26 | -0.07 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 1997 | #143 | George McCullough | DEF | +0.19 | -0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2004 | #165 | Robert Reynolds | DEF | +0.32 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 1995 | #159 | Gary Walker | DEF | -0.14 | +0.42 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | +0.08 |
| 1997 | #216 | Armon Williams | DEF | -0.13 | +0.06 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2000 | #160 | Frank Chamberlin | DEF | +0.38 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2000 | #124 | Bobby Myers | DEF | -0.05 | -0.07 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2002 | #77 | Rocky Calmus | DEF | -0.04 | -0.04 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| 1995 | #211 | C.J. Richardson | DEF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 2006 | #169 | Jesse Mahelona | DEF | -0.15 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2001 | #192 | Dan Alexander | OFF | -0.17 | +0.08 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2004 | #241 | Sean McHugh | OFF | -0.28 | +0.13 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1998 | #77 | Dainon Sidney | DEF | +0.36 | -0.29 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| 2002 | #151 | Jake Schifino | OFF | -0.06 | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1997 | #18 | Kenny Holmes | DEF | +0.11 | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.12 |
| 1994 | #119 | Mike Davis | DEF | -0.09 | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1994 | #187 | Lee Gissendaner | OFF | -0.31 | +0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.13 |
| 1999 | #186 | Darran Hall | OFF | -0.31 | +0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2004 | #92 | Rich Gardner | DEF | +0.10 | -0.22 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1998 | #168 | Lee Wiggins | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2003 | #225 | Todd Williams | OFF | -0.12 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 1999 | #222 | Phil Glover | DEF | -0.32 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2006 | #245 | Spencer Toone | DEF | -0.28 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2000 | #237 | Wes Shivers | OFF | -0.25 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 2003 | #60 | Tyrone Calico | OFF | -0.02 | -0.15 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.21 |
| 2004 | #103 | Bo Schobel | DEF | -0.22 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1998 | #205 | Jimmy Sprotte | DEF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2005 | #150 | Daniel Loper | OFF | +0.33 | -0.45 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2006 | #172 | Jonathan Orr | OFF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1996 | #107 | Kendrick Burton | DEF | -0.40 | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2001 | #199 | Adam Haayer | OFF | -0.32 | -0.16 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1995 | #95 | Torey Hunter | DEF | -0.25 | -0.21 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1996 | #177 | Anthony Dorsett | DEF | +0.41 | -0.51 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.33 |
| 1996 | #74 | Terry Killens | DEF | +0.80 | -0.66 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.33 |
| 2002 | #110 | Mike Echols | DEF | -0.30 | -0.18 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2005 | #142 | Damien Nash | OFF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1995 | #174 | Hicham El-Mashtoub | OFF | -0.29 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1994 | #129 | Sean Jackson | OFF | -0.47 | -0.04 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1994 | #161 | Jim Reid | OFF | -0.24 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1999 | #114 | Brad Ware | DEF | -0.49 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2003 | #28 | Andre Woolfolk | DEF | +0.09 | -0.32 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.41 |
| 2000 | #93 | Byron Frisch | DEF | -0.54 | -0.20 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2002 | #133 | Rocky Boiman | DEF | +0.17 | -0.44 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.52 |
| 1997 | #46 | Joey Kent | OFF | +0.01 | -0.44 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.54 |
| 2006 | #137 | Terna Nande | DEF | -0.54 | -0.21 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 1994 | #60 | Jeremy Nunley | DEF | -0.37 | -0.34 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 2000 | #197 | Robaire Smith | DEF | -0.02 | -0.27 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.58 |
| 2006 | #116 | Stephen Tulloch | DEF | +0.05 | -0.14 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.30 | -0.25 | -0.63 |
| 1997 | #81 | Scott Sanderson | OFF | -0.07 | -0.63 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.73 |
| 2004 | #42 | Travis LaBoy | DEF | -0.07 | -0.48 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.14 | -0.07 | -0.78 |
| 1999 | #52 | John Thornton | DEF | -0.50 | -0.35 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.90 |
| 1996 | #38 | Bryant Mix | DEF | -0.59 | -0.44 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.90 |
| 2001 | #232 | Keith Adams | DEF | -0.73 | -0.35 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 1998 | #107 | Joe Salave'a | DEF | -0.13 | -0.84 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.09 |
| 1994 | #220 | Lemanski Hall | DEF | -0.42 | -0.68 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -1.21 |
| 2004 | #71 | Randy Starks | DEF | -0.70 | -0.65 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.44 | -0.25 | -1.93 |
| 1996 | #109 | Jon Runyan | OFF | -1.10 | -0.77 | — | -0.96 | — | -0.60 | -0.48 | -2.44 |
| 2005 | #68 | Courtney Roby | OFF | -1.10 | -1.10 | — | -1.11 | — | -0.34 | -0.21 | -2.49 |
| 2005 | #6 | Adam Jones | DEF | -2.32 | -2.09 | — | -2.44 | — | -3.49 | -3.76 | -8.27 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.