Headline score
composite_meanThe maturity-adjusted composite θ: a GM portfolio estimate that combines opportunity, quality, and recognition after accounting for the draft opportunities available.
Data & definitions
A compact dictionary for the public leaderboard, its uncertainty, and the support evidence behind it.
Headline artifact
Download the leaderboard
The download is the checked-in headline CSV for this release, unchanged. It contains 209 GM-team career rows representing 190 people.
Field dictionary
95% credible interval bounds
composite_q025 · composite_q975The lower and upper ends of the model’s maturity-adjusted 95% uncertainty range. These moment-matched public bounds communicate uncertainty; they are not a guarantee about where a GM’s true skill lies.
Maturity weight
maturity_weightHow much observed player-career evidence supports the public estimate, from 0 to 1. Lower maturity pulls the score toward league average and widens its credible interval.
Provisional status
is_provisionalFlags a portfolio whose player careers have not supplied enough evidence for a settled public reading. Provisional does not mean invalid; it means interpret the estimate cautiously.
Verdict and confidence
verdict · confidence · p_positiveVerdict is a relative tier in the fitted GM pool. p_positive is the maturity-adjusted direction probability from the public moment-matched Normal approximation. ** means the 95% interval excludes zero; * means that direction probability exceeds 80%. The symbols do not erase interval width.
Support residual
pick_residuals_wide.csv · total_zA pick-level explanation of how observed outcomes differed from the league baseline for that draft slot. It helps explain a GM profile, but it is not another GM rating or the public headline estimate.
Draft and player context
draft year · slot · position · team · career windowDraft pages show descriptive class totals; player pages show the observed outcome evidence and attribution behind an individual pick. Full-career statistics can provide context without becoming active headline outcomes.
Calculation boundaries
The headline estimates drafted-player outcomes after conditioning on draft slot, position, draft year, and the player’s observed career window. Opportunity, quality, and recognition each receive a voice; a maturity layer then shrinks and widens low-evidence portfolios for the public score.
It does not measure franchise wins, salary-cap management, trades as a whole, coaching, or the independent contribution of every front-office employee. Hall of Fame forecasts, descriptive draft-class totals, per-pick support residuals, and team evidence trajectories are useful context, but none is a substitute for the maturity-adjusted headline rating.
The release contract counts 190 people in 209 GM-team careers. The leaderboard can preserve multiple career rows while the Big Board and profile directory present each person once.