Billy Devaney
LAR · Composite skill θ = -0.30 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.95 to +0.36
Evidence: 26 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2009–2011 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.48
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2009–2011LARSt Louis era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | #35 | James Laurinaitis | DEF | +1.85 |
| 2010 | #189 | Eugene Sims | DEF | +1.27 |
| 2011 | #78 | Austin Pettis | OFF | +0.33 |
| 2009 | #196 | Keith Null | OFF | +0.29 |
| 2010 | #254 | Josh Hull | DEF | +0.13 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #1 | Sam Bradford | OFF | -2.27 |
| 2009 | #2 | Jason Smith | OFF | -1.96 |
| 2010 | #33 | Rodger Saffold | OFF | -1.78 |
| 2010 | #132 | Michael Hoomanawanui | OFF | -1.14 |
| 2011 | #112 | Greg Salas | OFF | -0.91 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 26 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2009 | #35 | James Laurinaitis | DEF | +1.14 | +1.85 | +0.96 | +1.43 | +0.16 | -0.30 | -0.21 | +1.85 |
| 2010 | #189 | Eugene Sims | DEF | +1.59 | +0.14 | +1.38 | +0.48 | +0.01 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 2011 | #78 | Austin Pettis | OFF | +0.43 | -0.07 | +0.52 | +0.03 | +0.12 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.33 |
| 2009 | #196 | Keith Null | OFF | +0.03 | +0.25 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.29 |
| 2010 | #254 | Josh Hull | DEF | +0.28 | -0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2009 | #103 | Darell Scott | DEF | +0.20 | -0.11 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2010 | #211 | Marquis Johnson | DEF | -0.27 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2009 | #66 | Bradley Fletcher | DEF | -0.09 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.17 |
| 2010 | #170 | Fendi Onobun | OFF | -0.44 | -0.16 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2011 | #229 | Jonathan Nelson | DEF | -0.38 | -0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2011 | #14 | Robert Quinn | DEF | -0.26 | -0.16 | -0.64 | -0.06 | +1.18 | -1.92 | +1.08 | -0.21 |
| 2010 | #226 | George Selvie | DEF | -0.16 | -0.18 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2011 | #216 | Mikail Baker | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2011 | #228 | Jabara Williams | DEF | -0.41 | -0.12 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2009 | #160 | Brooks Foster | OFF | -0.45 | -0.11 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2010 | #149 | Hall Davis | DEF | -0.50 | -0.14 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2011 | #158 | Jermale Hines | DEF | -0.51 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2011 | #47 | Lance Kendricks | OFF | +0.53 | +0.85 | +0.17 | -0.34 | -0.99 | -0.46 | -0.22 | -0.48 |
| 2010 | #99 | Mardy Gilyard | OFF | -0.36 | -0.22 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| 2009 | #211 | Chris Ogbonnaya | OFF | -0.54 | -0.14 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.56 |
| 2010 | #65 | Jerome Murphy | DEF | -0.42 | -0.44 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2011 | #112 | Greg Salas | OFF | -0.65 | -0.43 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.91 |
| 2010 | #132 | Michael Hoomanawanui | OFF | -0.81 | -0.47 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | -1.14 |
| 2010 | #33 | Rodger Saffold | OFF | +0.10 | +0.68 | -0.53 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -2.16 | -1.52 | -1.78 |
| 2009 | #2 | Jason Smith | OFF | -0.40 | -0.77 | — | -1.23 | — | -0.17 | -0.13 | -1.96 |
| 2010 | #1 | Sam Bradford | OFF | -0.35 | -0.50 | -0.93 | -1.08 | — | -0.93 | -0.26 | -2.27 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.