Bob Quinn
DET · Composite skill θ = -0.37 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.16 to +0.43
Evidence: 43 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2016–2020 · 92% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.34
- maturity discount
- +0.03
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2016–2020DET
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #20 | Frank Ragnow | OFF | +3.52 |
| 2017 | #96 | Kenny Golladay | OFF | +1.80 |
| 2017 | #165 | Jamal Agnew | DEF | +1.60 |
| 2020 | #75 | Jonah Jackson | OFF | +1.32 |
| 2016 | #202 | Anthony Zettel | DEF | +1.03 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #3 | Jeff Okudah | DEF | -2.80 |
| 2016 | #111 | Miles Killebrew | DEF | -2.23 |
| 2017 | #53 | Teez Tabor | DEF | -1.89 |
| 2019 | #43 | Jahlani Tavai | DEF | -1.86 |
| 2017 | #250 | Pat O'Connor | DEF | -1.60 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 43 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2018 | #20 | Frank Ragnow | OFF | +0.75 | +1.13 | +0.76 | +1.15 | +0.69 | +3.75 | -0.32 | +3.52 |
| 2017 | #96 | Kenny Golladay | OFF | +0.16 | +0.48 | +0.85 | +0.52 | +1.15 | +0.99 | -0.05 | +1.80 |
| 2017 | #165 | Jamal Agnew | DEF | -0.33 | -0.93 | -0.85 | -0.29 | +3.09 | -0.20 | +2.00 | +1.60 |
| 2020 | #75 | Jonah Jackson | OFF | +0.23 | +0.62 | +0.61 | +0.41 | +0.46 | +0.90 | -0.09 | +1.32 |
| 2016 | #202 | Anthony Zettel | DEF | +0.19 | +0.29 | +1.25 | +0.25 | +0.66 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.03 |
| 2016 | #95 | Graham Glasgow | OFF | +0.84 | +1.33 | +1.20 | +0.70 | -0.42 | -0.59 | -0.36 | +0.78 |
| 2016 | #151 | Joe Dahl | OFF | +0.43 | +0.13 | -0.02 | +0.21 | +0.66 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.60 |
| 2018 | #153 | Tyrell Crosby | OFF | +0.24 | +0.01 | -0.21 | +0.12 | +1.10 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.59 |
| 2016 | #16 | Taylor Decker | OFF | +1.19 | +1.76 | +1.13 | +1.15 | -0.80 | -0.97 | -1.24 | +0.43 |
| 2018 | #82 | Tracy Walker | DEF | +0.85 | +0.50 | +0.47 | +0.06 | -0.75 | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.18 |
| 2019 | #146 | Amani Oruwariye | DEF | +0.17 | +0.29 | +0.62 | -0.06 | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.08 | +0.11 |
| 2020 | #197 | John Penisini | DEF | +0.15 | +0.08 | -0.43 | +0.06 | +0.20 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2016 | #191 | Jake Rudock | OFF | -0.14 | +0.00 | -0.10 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2017 | #215 | Brad Kaaya | OFF | -0.20 | +0.02 | -0.08 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2020 | #166 | Quintez Cephus | OFF | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.66 | -0.07 | +0.27 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| 2019 | #117 | Austin Bryant | DEF | +0.02 | -0.23 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.15 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.28 |
| 2019 | #81 | Will Harris | DEF | +0.67 | +0.21 | +0.27 | -0.18 | -1.07 | -0.22 | -0.14 | -0.43 |
| 2017 | #124 | Jalen Reeves-Maybin | DEF | +0.73 | -0.77 | -0.43 | -0.36 | -0.85 | +0.77 | -0.23 | -0.48 |
| 2020 | #35 | D'Andre Swift | OFF | -0.37 | -0.53 | -0.20 | -0.03 | +0.47 | -0.46 | -0.20 | -0.48 |
| 2019 | #224 | Isaac Nauta | OFF | -0.30 | -0.26 | -1.04 | +0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2018 | #43 | Kerryon Johnson | OFF | -0.22 | -0.24 | -0.49 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.18 | -0.08 | -0.61 |
| 2016 | #210 | Jimmy Landes | ST | -0.52 | +0.16 | -1.98 | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.61 |
| 2016 | #169 | Antwione Williams | DEF | -0.33 | -0.22 | -0.75 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 2017 | #21 | Jarrad Davis | DEF | -0.01 | +0.04 | +0.10 | -0.19 | -0.65 | -0.32 | -0.19 | -0.64 |
| 2019 | #184 | Travis Fulgham | OFF | -0.55 | -0.26 | -0.38 | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2019 | #229 | P.J. Johnson | DEF | -0.55 | -0.18 | -0.94 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 2020 | #235 | Jashon Cornell | DEF | -0.54 | -0.20 | -1.03 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 2018 | #237 | Nick Bawden | OFF | -0.49 | -0.23 | -0.45 | -0.34 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.77 |
| 2017 | #127 | Michael Roberts | OFF | -0.20 | -0.25 | -0.98 | -0.03 | -0.62 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.83 |
| 2020 | #67 | Julian Okwara | DEF | -0.04 | -0.51 | -0.77 | -0.33 | -0.39 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.86 |
| 2020 | #172 | Jason Huntley | OFF | -0.71 | -0.26 | -1.07 | -0.30 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.02 |
| 2020 | #121 | Logan Stenberg | OFF | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.24 | -0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.04 |
| 2017 | #205 | Jeremiah Ledbetter | DEF | -0.75 | -0.71 | +0.29 | -0.60 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.05 |
| 2016 | #236 | Dwayne Washington | OFF | -0.68 | -0.54 | +0.07 | -0.57 | -0.79 | -0.11 | -0.07 | -1.16 |
| 2018 | #114 | Da'Shawn Hand | DEF | -0.66 | -0.62 | -0.79 | -0.51 | -0.24 | -0.19 | -0.08 | -1.21 |
| 2019 | #8 | T.J. Hockenson | OFF | -0.61 | -0.51 | -0.59 | -0.60 | +0.63 | -1.03 | -0.47 | -1.30 |
| 2019 | #186 | Ty Johnson | OFF | -0.61 | -0.53 | -0.24 | -0.50 | -1.09 | -0.13 | -0.08 | -1.35 |
| 2016 | #46 | A'Shawn Robinson | DEF | -0.59 | -0.55 | -0.31 | -0.61 | -0.36 | -0.80 | -0.36 | -1.55 |
| 2017 | #250 | Pat O'Connor | DEF | -0.80 | -0.75 | -0.28 | -0.72 | -1.12 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.60 |
| 2019 | #43 | Jahlani Tavai | DEF | -0.78 | -0.75 | -0.52 | -0.73 | -0.93 | -0.45 | -0.26 | -1.86 |
| 2017 | #53 | Teez Tabor | DEF | -0.82 | -0.86 | -1.33 | -0.71 | -0.67 | -0.25 | -0.16 | -1.89 |
| 2016 | #111 | Miles Killebrew | DEF | +0.12 | -1.18 | -1.08 | -0.94 | -1.34 | -0.42 | -0.32 | -2.23 |
| 2020 | #3 | Jeff Okudah | DEF | -0.94 | -1.06 | -1.20 | -1.42 | -0.78 | -0.73 | -0.54 | -2.80 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.