Terry Fontenot
ATL · Composite skill θ = +0.06 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.51 to +1.63
Evidence: 36 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2021–2025 · 40% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.34
- maturity discount
- -0.09
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2021–2025ATLHired Jan 2021; ran 2025 draft
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | #8 | Bijan Robinson | OFF | +2.98 |
| 2021 | #182 | Adetokunbo Ogundeji | DEF | +1.34 |
| 2022 | #151 | Tyler Allgeier | OFF | +1.12 |
| 2025 | #96 | Xavier Watts | ST | +1.06 |
| 2021 | #4 | Kyle Pitts | OFF | +1.04 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #187 | Frank Darby | OFF | -0.90 |
| 2022 | #190 | Justin Shaffer | OFF | -0.85 |
| 2025 | #26 | James Pearce | DEF | -0.82 |
| 2024 | #8 | Michael Penix | OFF | -0.72 |
| 2021 | #68 | Jalen Mayfield | OFF | -0.72 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 36 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2023 | #8 | Bijan Robinson | OFF | +0.17 | +0.39 | +0.86 | +0.51 | +0.51 | +1.96 | +2.05 | +2.98 |
| 2021 | #182 | Adetokunbo Ogundeji | DEF | +0.28 | +0.61 | +0.90 | +0.34 | +1.17 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.34 |
| 2022 | #151 | Tyler Allgeier | OFF | +1.00 | +0.14 | +0.87 | +0.68 | +0.30 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.12 |
| 2025 | #96 | Xavier Watts | ST | +0.09 | +0.44 | +0.43 | +0.28 | +1.22 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.06 |
| 2021 | #4 | Kyle Pitts | OFF | +0.46 | +0.47 | +0.22 | -0.02 | +1.04 | +0.55 | -0.25 | +1.04 |
| 2022 | #74 | Desmond Ridder | OFF | +0.15 | +0.33 | +0.48 | +0.38 | +0.88 | -0.03 | +0.00 | +0.93 |
| 2024 | #109 | Brandon Dorlus | DEF | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.15 | +1.11 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.68 |
| 2021 | #114 | Drew Dalman | OFF | +0.52 | +0.44 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.36 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.62 |
| 2022 | #8 | Drake London | OFF | +0.32 | +0.48 | +0.67 | +0.29 | +0.32 | -0.30 | -0.13 | +0.58 |
| 2025 | #218 | Jack Nelson | OFF | +0.19 | +0.06 | +0.48 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.33 |
| 2023 | #224 | DeMarcco Hellams | DEF | +0.31 | +0.11 | +0.40 | +0.16 | -0.07 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2024 | #186 | Jase McClellan | OFF | -0.04 | +0.29 | +0.31 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2021 | #148 | Ta'Quon Graham | DEF | +0.48 | +0.07 | -0.16 | +0.10 | +0.01 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.16 |
| 2024 | #187 | Casey Washington | OFF | +0.14 | +0.15 | +0.03 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2024 | #197 | Zion Logue | DEF | -0.21 | +0.11 | +0.22 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| 2023 | #38 | Matthew Bergeron | OFF | +0.35 | +0.58 | +0.59 | +0.15 | -0.83 | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.11 |
| 2025 | #118 | Billy Bowman | ST | -0.11 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2023 | #113 | Clark Phillips | DEF | +0.13 | -0.02 | -0.26 | +0.03 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| 2023 | #225 | Jovaughn Gwyn | OFF | +0.14 | -0.18 | -0.22 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2023 | #75 | Zach Harrison | DEF | +0.32 | -0.11 | -0.16 | -0.05 | -0.40 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2022 | #213 | John FitzPatrick | OFF | -0.31 | -0.19 | -0.38 | +0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2024 | #143 | JD Bertrand | DEF | +0.24 | -0.03 | +0.14 | +0.02 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2022 | #38 | Arnold Ebiketie | DEF | +0.65 | -0.37 | -0.34 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.31 |
| 2024 | #35 | Ruke Orhorhoro | DEF | -0.09 | -0.25 | -0.22 | -0.17 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2021 | #40 | Richie Grant | DEF | +0.49 | +0.07 | +0.25 | -0.08 | -0.87 | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.35 |
| 2025 | #15 | Jalon Walker | DEF | -0.33 | -0.37 | -0.34 | -0.44 | +0.29 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2021 | #108 | Darren Hall | DEF | -0.12 | -0.23 | -0.08 | -0.21 | -0.31 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.46 |
| 2021 | #183 | Avery Williams | DEF | +0.49 | -0.22 | +0.45 | -0.15 | -1.26 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.50 |
| 2022 | #58 | Troy Andersen | DEF | -0.15 | -0.19 | -0.35 | -0.18 | -0.42 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.57 |
| 2022 | #82 | DeAngelo Malone | DEF | +0.63 | -0.44 | -0.41 | -0.17 | -0.81 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 2024 | #74 | Bralen Trice | DEF | -0.51 | -0.21 | -0.77 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 2021 | #68 | Jalen Mayfield | OFF | -0.62 | -0.40 | -0.97 | -0.36 | +0.46 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0.72 |
| 2024 | #8 | Michael Penix | OFF | -0.24 | -0.41 | -0.40 | -0.50 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 2025 | #26 | James Pearce | DEF | -0.20 | -0.37 | -0.21 | -0.33 | -0.75 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.82 |
| 2022 | #190 | Justin Shaffer | OFF | -0.53 | -0.36 | -0.83 | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.85 |
| 2021 | #187 | Frank Darby | OFF | -0.29 | -0.31 | -1.14 | -0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.