Ladd Herzeg
TEN · Composite skill θ = +0.80 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.07 to +1.52
Evidence: 71 mapped picks across 9 draft classes, 1981–1989 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.50
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1981–1989TENGM through Earl Campbell trade and Glanville era; widely credited as Oilers GM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | #9 | Bruce Matthews | OFF | +11.03 |
| 1982 | #8 | Mike Munchak | OFF | +8.42 |
| 1987 | #147 | Al Smith | DEF | +5.55 |
| 1985 | #3 | Ray Childress | DEF | +5.54 |
| 1987 | #20 | Haywood Jeffires | OFF | +3.90 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | #138 | Lee Johnson | ST | -6.62 |
| 1983 | #30 | Harvey Salem | OFF | -2.23 |
| 1987 | #3 | Alonzo Highsmith | OFF | -1.64 |
| 1983 | #69 | Chris Dressel | OFF | -1.59 |
| 1989 | #190 | Tracy Rogers | DEF | -1.48 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 71 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1983 | #9 | Bruce Matthews | OFF | +2.73 | +3.93 | — | +4.67 | — | +0.47 | +5.58 | +11.03 |
| 1982 | #8 | Mike Munchak | OFF | +1.20 | +1.70 | — | +2.50 | — | +6.62 | +2.32 | +8.42 |
| 1987 | #147 | Al Smith | DEF | +1.43 | +2.33 | — | +1.64 | — | +2.03 | +2.03 | +5.55 |
| 1985 | #3 | Ray Childress | DEF | +1.27 | +1.87 | — | +2.01 | — | +3.16 | +0.76 | +5.54 |
| 1987 | #20 | Haywood Jeffires | OFF | +0.99 | +1.11 | — | +0.76 | — | +2.46 | +1.72 | +3.90 |
| 1988 | #125 | Cris Dishman | DEF | +1.13 | +1.38 | — | +1.03 | — | +0.68 | +1.80 | +3.52 |
| 1986 | #34 | Ernest Givins | OFF | +1.44 | +2.30 | — | +1.81 | — | -0.65 | -0.32 | +3.20 |
| 1989 | #77 | Bubba McDowell | DEF | +1.04 | +1.55 | — | +1.07 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +2.32 |
| 1983 | #83 | Steve Brown | DEF | +1.57 | +1.77 | — | +0.74 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | +2.30 |
| 1984 | #100 | Patrick Allen | DEF | +1.53 | +1.37 | — | +0.65 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +2.05 |
| 1983 | #42 | Keith Bostic | DEF | +0.74 | +1.31 | — | +0.65 | — | +0.85 | -0.14 | +2.04 |
| 1984 | #58 | Johnny Meads | DEF | +1.15 | +1.42 | — | +0.71 | — | -0.32 | -0.19 | +1.73 |
| 1984 | #114 | Robert Lyles | DEF | +0.70 | +1.24 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | +1.60 |
| 1984 | #141 | John Grimsley | DEF | +0.91 | +0.73 | — | +0.36 | — | +0.90 | -0.14 | +1.56 |
| 1989 | #131 | Glenn Montgomery | DEF | +1.51 | +0.44 | — | +0.60 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.54 |
| 1988 | #22 | Lorenzo White | OFF | +0.75 | +0.11 | — | +0.77 | — | +0.69 | -0.21 | +1.44 |
| 1982 | #77 | Robert Abraham | DEF | +0.75 | +1.02 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.29 |
| 1986 | #61 | Allen Pinkett | OFF | +1.15 | +0.22 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +1.18 |
| 1985 | #36 | Richard Byrd | DEF | +0.95 | +0.57 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.14 |
| 1988 | #72 | Greg Montgomery | ST | +0.55 | -0.94 | — | -0.21 | — | +0.80 | +1.92 | +0.96 |
| 1984 | #29 | Doug Smith | DEF | +0.70 | +0.73 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.38 | -0.15 | +0.70 |
| 1989 | #23 | David Williams | OFF | +0.73 | +0.62 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.45 | -0.25 | +0.57 |
| 1983 | #114 | Larry Moriarty | OFF | +0.38 | +0.56 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.55 |
| 1983 | #170 | Herkie Walls | OFF | +0.40 | +0.26 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.42 |
| 1981 | #159 | Bill Kay | DEF | +0.45 | +0.05 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 1981 | #79 | Mike Holston | OFF | +0.71 | -0.06 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.37 |
| 1984 | #54 | Bo Eason | DEF | +0.12 | +0.23 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.23 |
| 1986 | #145 | Ray Wallace | OFF | -0.02 | +0.30 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1983 | #88 | Mike McCloskey | OFF | +0.40 | -0.18 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 1985 | #133 | Frank Bush | DEF | -0.15 | +0.15 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 1989 | #50 | Scott Kozak | DEF | +1.11 | -0.53 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.00 |
| 1987 | #176 | Robert Banks | DEF | -0.06 | -0.03 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 1983 | #139 | Jerome Foster | DEF | +0.07 | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1988 | #130 | Chris Verhulst | OFF | -0.13 | -0.13 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 1985 | #170 | Mike Akiu | OFF | +0.05 | -0.04 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1987 | #64 | Cody Carlson | OFF | +0.10 | -0.21 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| 1984 | #161 | Eric Mullins | OFF | -0.15 | -0.07 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1986 | #114 | Jeff Parks | OFF | -0.32 | -0.25 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1988 | #187 | Tracey Eaton | DEF | -0.16 | -0.14 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1982 | #44 | Oliver Luck | OFF | -0.07 | -0.15 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1984 | #170 | Willie Joyner | OFF | -0.24 | -0.04 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1982 | #94 | Steve Bryant | OFF | +0.12 | -0.21 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.37 |
| 1981 | #193 | Don Washington | DEF | -0.48 | -0.11 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1982 | #72 | Stan Edwards | OFF | +0.31 | -0.36 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.39 |
| 1982 | #148 | Gary Allen | OFF | -0.37 | -0.11 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1983 | #142 | Steve Haworth | DEF | -0.54 | -0.17 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1988 | #157 | Kurt Crain | DEF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1989 | #104 | Rod Harris | OFF | -0.54 | -0.19 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1985 | #87 | Tom Briehl | DEF | -0.28 | -0.30 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.57 |
| 1985 | #153 | Joe Krakoski | DEF | -0.57 | -0.20 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1989 | #157 | Bo Orlando | DEF | +0.23 | -0.44 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.11 | -0.09 | -0.60 |
| 1984 | #2 | Dean Steinkuhler | OFF | +0.70 | +0.11 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.79 | -0.54 | -0.66 |
| 1984 | #85 | Mark Studaway | DEF | -0.52 | -0.31 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 1987 | #133 | Spencer Tillman | OFF | +0.52 | -0.59 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.74 |
| 1985 | #82 | Mike Kelley | OFF | -0.27 | -0.51 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 1987 | #105 | Mark Dusbabek | DEF | -0.66 | -0.30 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 1981 | #133 | Delbert Fowler | DEF | -0.68 | -0.30 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 1985 | #11 | Richard Johnson | DEF | +0.71 | -0.50 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.42 | -0.27 | -0.82 |
| 1983 | #58 | Tim Joiner | DEF | -0.25 | -0.55 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| 1986 | #3 | Jim Everett | OFF | -2.27 | -2.38 | — | +2.04 | — | -0.75 | -0.43 | -0.88 |
| 1987 | #46 | Walter Johnson | DEF | -0.25 | -0.58 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| 1981 | #106 | Nick Eyre | OFF | -0.54 | -0.49 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.91 |
| 1987 | #159 | Toby Caston | DEF | -0.39 | -0.51 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.92 |
| 1983 | #86 | Greg Hill | DEF | -0.55 | -0.52 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.95 |
| 1988 | #48 | Quintin Jones | DEF | -0.65 | -0.48 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| 1982 | #121 | Malcolm Taylor | DEF | -0.53 | -0.67 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.23 |
| 1989 | #190 | Tracy Rogers | DEF | -1.05 | -0.62 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.48 |
| 1983 | #69 | Chris Dressel | OFF | -0.30 | -0.55 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.46 | -0.20 | -1.59 |
| 1987 | #3 | Alonzo Highsmith | OFF | -0.32 | -0.37 | — | -1.05 | — | -0.29 | -0.18 | -1.64 |
| 1983 | #30 | Harvey Salem | OFF | -0.86 | -0.59 | — | -0.87 | — | -0.84 | -0.43 | -2.23 |
| 1985 | #138 | Lee Johnson | ST | -2.58 | -2.52 | — | -2.76 | — | -1.20 | -1.43 | -6.62 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.