Carmen Policy
SF · Composite skill θ = +0.35 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.42 to +1.12
Evidence: 29 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 1994–1998 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.03
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1994–1998SFPresident + de facto draft chief; left for CLE
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #89 | Terrell Owens | OFF | +6.84 |
| 1994 | #7 | Bryant Young | DEF | +4.89 |
| 1994 | #182 | Lee Woodall | DEF | +3.26 |
| 1998 | #180 | Fred Beasley | OFF | +2.35 |
| 1998 | #58 | Jeremy Newberry | OFF | +1.87 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | #28 | R.W. McQuarters | DEF | -3.46 |
| 1994 | #85 | Doug Brien | ST | -2.99 |
| 1994 | #53 | Kevin Mitchell | DEF | -2.30 |
| 1997 | #55 | Marc Edwards | OFF | -1.89 |
| 1996 | #46 | Israel Ifeanyi | DEF | -0.90 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 29 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #89 | Terrell Owens | OFF | +0.13 | +0.77 | — | +1.81 | — | +3.43 | +5.74 | +6.84 |
| 1994 | #7 | Bryant Young | DEF | +2.05 | +3.00 | — | +2.14 | — | -0.14 | +0.61 | +4.89 |
| 1994 | #182 | Lee Woodall | DEF | +1.25 | +1.83 | — | +1.21 | — | +1.05 | -0.03 | +3.26 |
| 1998 | #180 | Fred Beasley | OFF | +1.80 | +1.75 | — | +0.08 | — | +1.04 | -0.04 | +2.35 |
| 1998 | #58 | Jeremy Newberry | OFF | +0.22 | +0.81 | — | +0.64 | — | +1.73 | -0.30 | +1.87 |
| 1997 | #77 | Greg Clark | OFF | +0.69 | +0.76 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.09 |
| 1995 | #10 | J.J. Stokes | OFF | +0.90 | +0.18 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.57 | -0.34 | +0.44 |
| 1996 | #160 | Iheanyi Uwaezuoke | OFF | +0.48 | -0.02 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 1994 | #153 | Tony Peterson | DEF | +1.05 | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 1996 | #239 | Sean Manuel | OFF | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.32 |
| 1998 | #119 | Lance Schulters | DEF | -0.16 | +0.08 | — | -0.21 | — | +0.96 | -0.11 | +0.18 |
| 1995 | #238 | Herbert Coleman | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1995 | #127 | Tim Hanshaw | OFF | +0.26 | -0.21 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 1996 | #128 | Daryl Price | DEF | +0.02 | -0.08 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 1998 | #151 | Phil Ostrowski | OFF | +0.27 | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1998 | #215 | Ryan Thelwell | OFF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 1996 | #198 | Stephen Pitts | OFF | -0.32 | +0.10 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1996 | #254 | Sam Manuel | DEF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 1994 | #28 | William Floyd | OFF | -0.09 | +0.25 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.15 |
| 1995 | #201 | Antonio Armstrong | DEF | -0.38 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1994 | #62 | Tyronne Drakeford | DEF | +0.23 | -0.28 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.28 |
| 1994 | #87 | Cory Fleming | OFF | -0.56 | -0.22 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1998 | #89 | Chris Ruhman | OFF | -0.42 | -0.41 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1997 | #26 | Jim Druckenmiller | OFF | -0.37 | -0.43 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | -0.81 |
| 1996 | #46 | Israel Ifeanyi | DEF | -0.65 | -0.43 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.90 |
| 1997 | #55 | Marc Edwards | OFF | -0.78 | -0.75 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.28 | -0.16 | -1.89 |
| 1994 | #53 | Kevin Mitchell | DEF | -0.40 | -1.32 | — | -1.15 | — | -0.34 | -0.25 | -2.30 |
| 1994 | #85 | Doug Brien | ST | -1.56 | -1.25 | — | -1.17 | — | -0.42 | -0.39 | -2.99 |
| 1998 | #28 | R.W. McQuarters | DEF | -1.45 | -1.45 | — | -1.43 | — | -0.64 | -0.51 | -3.46 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.