Chris Grier
MIA · Composite skill θ = -0.20 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.43 to +1.03
Composite θ
-0.20
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.43–+1.03
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
37%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Bad
directional only
Evidence: 70 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 2016–2025 · 67% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.24
- maturity discount
- +0.10
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2016–2025MIAPromoted to GM Jan 2016
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #38 | Xavien Howard | DEF | +4.67 |
| 2018 | #229 | Jason Sanders | ST | +2.98 |
| 2023 | #84 | De'Von Achane | OFF | +2.72 |
| 2025 | #143 | Jordan Phillips | DEF | +1.70 |
| 2020 | #5 | Tua Tagovailoa | OFF | +1.34 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #13 | Laremy Tunsil | OFF | -4.05 |
| 2017 | #22 | Charles Harris | DEF | -3.45 |
| 2018 | #11 | Minkah Fitzpatrick | DEF | -3.17 |
| 2020 | #30 | Noah Igbinoghene | DEF | -1.93 |
| 2017 | #54 | Raekwon McMillan | DEF | -1.91 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 70 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2016 | #38 | Xavien Howard | DEF | +0.37 | +1.08 | +0.78 | +1.21 | +1.97 | +3.29 | +1.40 | +4.67 |
| 2018 | #229 | Jason Sanders | ST | +1.87 | -0.21 | +2.06 | +0.96 | +0.47 | -0.06 | +2.10 | +2.98 |
| 2023 | #84 | De'Von Achane | OFF | +0.41 | +0.74 | +0.64 | +1.10 | +2.11 | +1.04 | -0.02 | +2.72 |
| 2025 | #143 | Jordan Phillips | DEF | +0.23 | +0.57 | +0.53 | +0.35 | +2.17 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.70 |
| 2020 | #5 | Tua Tagovailoa | OFF | +0.67 | +0.71 | +0.54 | +1.03 | -0.17 | +0.63 | -0.08 | +1.34 |
| 2020 | #185 | Blake Ferguson | ST | +1.07 | +0.03 | — | +0.24 | +1.35 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.32 |
| 2020 | #56 | Raekwon Davis | DEF | +0.52 | +0.65 | +0.46 | +0.49 | +0.90 | -0.10 | -0.04 | +1.16 |
| 2025 | #231 | Quinn Ewers | OFF | +0.40 | +0.53 | +0.92 | +0.39 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 |
| 2018 | #73 | Jerome Baker | DEF | +0.69 | +1.10 | +1.47 | +0.63 | -0.25 | -0.41 | -0.26 | +0.94 |
| 2021 | #6 | Jaylen Waddle | OFF | +0.53 | +0.78 | +0.63 | +0.55 | +0.77 | -0.50 | -0.24 | +0.93 |
| 2019 | #151 | Andrew Van Ginkel | DEF | +0.58 | +0.40 | +0.87 | +0.44 | +0.17 | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.81 |
| 2022 | #247 | Skylar Thompson | OFF | +0.33 | +0.34 | +0.81 | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.80 |
| 2024 | #184 | Malik Washington | OFF | +0.52 | +0.33 | +0.85 | +0.33 | +0.07 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.76 |
| 2021 | #42 | Liam Eichenberg | OFF | +0.52 | +0.60 | +0.68 | +0.41 | +0.00 | -0.11 | -0.05 | +0.73 |
| 2021 | #36 | Jevon Holland | DEF | +0.30 | +0.70 | +0.40 | +0.27 | +0.53 | -0.19 | -0.10 | +0.72 |
| 2025 | #253 | Zeek Biggers | DEF | +0.24 | +0.31 | +0.80 | +0.26 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 |
| 2016 | #186 | Jakeem Grant | OFF | +0.96 | -0.14 | -0.03 | +0.24 | +0.68 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.70 |
| 2019 | #13 | Christian Wilkins | DEF | +0.52 | +0.83 | +1.74 | +0.41 | -0.64 | -0.36 | -0.15 | +0.67 |
| 2024 | #198 | Patrick McMorris | DEF | +0.10 | +0.24 | +0.48 | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.47 |
| 2025 | #179 | Ollie Gordon | OFF | +0.28 | +0.27 | +0.41 | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.47 |
| 2018 | #123 | Durham Smythe | OFF | +1.32 | +1.09 | +1.32 | -0.19 | -1.21 | -0.25 | -0.12 | +0.36 |
| 2025 | #150 | Jason Marshall | DEF | +0.11 | +0.15 | +0.26 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2017 | #237 | Isaiah Ford | OFF | +0.30 | -0.05 | +0.01 | +0.08 | +0.41 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 2024 | #241 | Tahj Washington | OFF | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.10 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2023 | #238 | Ryan Hayes | OFF | -0.10 | +0.00 | +0.34 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 2019 | #234 | Myles Gaskin | OFF | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.33 | +0.03 | +0.09 | -0.09 | -0.06 | +0.07 |
| 2024 | #120 | Jaylen Wright | OFF | +0.20 | +0.05 | -0.28 | +0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2024 | #158 | Mohamed Kamara | DEF | -0.16 | +0.04 | +0.11 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2017 | #194 | Vincent Taylor | DEF | -0.04 | -0.19 | +0.70 | -0.04 | -0.21 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2016 | #223 | Brandon Doughty | OFF | -0.16 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 2024 | #55 | Patrick Paul | OFF | +0.21 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.02 | -0.25 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| 2017 | #178 | Davon Godchaux | DEF | -0.15 | +0.22 | +0.64 | -0.14 | -0.24 | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.06 |
| 2020 | #39 | Robert Hunt | OFF | +0.17 | +0.34 | +0.14 | +0.06 | -0.25 | -0.33 | -0.15 | -0.11 |
| 2023 | #197 | Elijah Higgins | OFF | -0.35 | -0.02 | +0.09 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2021 | #18 | Jaelan Phillips | DEF | +0.07 | -0.03 | -0.54 | -0.06 | +0.37 | -0.24 | -0.09 | -0.18 |
| 2018 | #42 | Mike Gesicki | OFF | +0.28 | -0.47 | -0.13 | -0.04 | +0.79 | -0.66 | -0.28 | -0.21 |
| 2025 | #155 | Dante Trader | ST | +0.24 | +0.21 | +0.46 | +0.19 | -1.26 | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 2017 | #97 | Cordrea Tankersley | DEF | -0.38 | -0.13 | -0.48 | -0.14 | +0.22 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.33 |
| 2020 | #70 | Brandon Jones | DEF | +0.15 | +0.03 | -0.32 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.17 | -0.10 | -0.33 |
| 2020 | #111 | Solomon Kindley | OFF | -0.14 | -0.23 | -0.89 | -0.23 | +0.41 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.39 |
| 2016 | #231 | Thomas Duarte | OFF | -0.50 | -0.18 | -0.88 | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2016 | #204 | Jordan Lucas | DEF | -0.26 | -0.35 | -0.20 | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| 2022 | #224 | Cameron Goode | DEF | +0.35 | -0.18 | +0.01 | -0.11 | -0.98 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2019 | #233 | Chandler Cox | OFF | -0.06 | +0.03 | -0.83 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| 2022 | #125 | Erik Ezukanma | OFF | -0.35 | -0.14 | -0.64 | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2020 | #246 | Malcolm Perry | OFF | -0.36 | -0.09 | -0.70 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| 2025 | #37 | Jonah Savaiinaea | OFF | -0.15 | -0.07 | +0.04 | -0.22 | -0.80 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 2022 | #102 | Channing Tindall | DEF | +0.26 | -0.46 | -0.80 | -0.27 | -0.17 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| 2018 | #131 | Kalen Ballage | OFF | -0.16 | -0.13 | +0.01 | -0.19 | -0.90 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.68 |
| 2023 | #51 | Cam Smith | DEF | -0.08 | -0.34 | -0.51 | -0.23 | -0.52 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2018 | #227 | Quentin Poling | DEF | -0.61 | -0.26 | -0.65 | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.77 |
| 2016 | #86 | Leonte Carroo | OFF | +0.11 | -0.38 | -0.82 | -0.30 | -0.54 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.82 |
| 2019 | #202 | Isaiah Prince | OFF | -0.71 | -0.55 | +0.14 | -0.43 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.84 |
| 2021 | #244 | Gerrid Doaks | OFF | -0.61 | -0.18 | -1.15 | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.92 |
| 2020 | #164 | Curtis Weaver | DEF | -0.69 | -0.31 | -1.04 | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.94 |
| 2016 | #73 | Kenyan Drake | OFF | -0.16 | -0.54 | +0.15 | -0.23 | -0.69 | -0.42 | -0.22 | -0.97 |
| 2020 | #18 | Austin Jackson | OFF | +0.05 | +0.23 | -0.22 | -0.12 | -1.11 | -0.51 | -0.25 | -0.98 |
| 2017 | #164 | Isaac Asiata | OFF | -0.58 | -0.45 | -0.93 | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.99 |
| 2020 | #154 | Jason Strowbridge | DEF | -0.52 | -0.34 | -1.35 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.99 |
| 2019 | #78 | Michael Deiter | OFF | +0.07 | -0.46 | -0.75 | -0.43 | -0.49 | -0.27 | -0.14 | -1.05 |
| 2021 | #231 | Larnel Coleman | OFF | -0.60 | -0.44 | -1.02 | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.05 |
| 2024 | #21 | Chop Robinson | DEF | -0.01 | -0.53 | -0.31 | -0.43 | -1.16 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.10 |
| 2021 | #81 | Hunter Long | OFF | -0.61 | -0.59 | -1.00 | -0.30 | — | -0.12 | -0.05 | -1.11 |
| 2025 | #13 | Kenneth Grant | DEF | -0.30 | -0.53 | -0.29 | -0.58 | -1.31 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.34 |
| 2018 | #209 | Cornell Armstrong | DEF | -0.74 | -0.75 | -0.33 | -0.62 | -0.88 | -0.10 | -0.08 | -1.44 |
| 2017 | #54 | Raekwon McMillan | DEF | -0.93 | -0.47 | -0.72 | -0.76 | -0.89 | -0.47 | -0.30 | -1.91 |
| 2020 | #30 | Noah Igbinoghene | DEF | -0.58 | -0.95 | -1.08 | -0.76 | -0.84 | -0.33 | -0.19 | -1.93 |
| 2018 | #11 | Minkah Fitzpatrick | DEF | -1.08 | -0.96 | -0.86 | -1.17 | -1.38 | -1.09 | -0.74 | -3.17 |
| 2017 | #22 | Charles Harris | DEF | -0.83 | -1.33 | -0.97 | -1.24 | -2.20 | -0.85 | -0.54 | -3.45 |
| 2016 | #13 | Laremy Tunsil | OFF | -1.17 | -0.97 | -0.69 | -1.29 | -1.31 | -2.24 | -1.38 | -4.05 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.