Bill O'Brien
HOU · Composite skill θ = -0.36 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.44 to +0.73
Evidence: 12 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2019–2020 · 82% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.12
- maturity discount
- +0.08
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2019–2020HOUDe facto GM as HC
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #90 | Jonathan Greenard | DEF | +0.48 |
| 2019 | #23 | Tytus Howard | OFF | -0.06 |
| 2019 | #55 | Max Scharping | OFF | -0.28 |
| 2020 | #126 | Charlie Heck | OFF | -0.42 |
| 2019 | #195 | Xavier Crawford | DEF | -0.49 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #40 | Ross Blacklock | DEF | -1.53 |
| 2019 | #54 | Lonnie Johnson Jr. | DEF | -1.30 |
| 2019 | #86 | Kahale Warring | OFF | -1.24 |
| 2020 | #171 | Isaiah Coulter | OFF | -0.96 |
| 2019 | #161 | Charles Omenihu | DEF | -0.90 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 12 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2020 | #90 | Jonathan Greenard | DEF | +0.08 | +0.20 | -0.16 | +0.17 | +0.87 | -0.12 | -0.04 | +0.48 |
| 2019 | #23 | Tytus Howard | OFF | +0.67 | +1.07 | +0.47 | +0.47 | -1.07 | -0.66 | -0.33 | -0.06 |
| 2019 | #55 | Max Scharping | OFF | -0.04 | -0.12 | -0.20 | -0.10 | +0.10 | -0.22 | -0.11 | -0.28 |
| 2020 | #126 | Charlie Heck | OFF | +0.00 | -0.20 | -0.39 | -0.18 | -0.08 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.42 |
| 2019 | #195 | Xavier Crawford | DEF | -0.52 | -0.26 | -0.11 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.49 |
| 2019 | #220 | Cullen Gillaspia | OFF | -0.03 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.21 | -0.97 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 2020 | #141 | John Reid | DEF | -0.44 | -0.36 | -0.66 | -0.24 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.77 |
| 2019 | #161 | Charles Omenihu | DEF | -0.22 | -0.45 | +0.18 | -0.34 | -0.99 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.90 |
| 2020 | #171 | Isaiah Coulter | OFF | -0.65 | -0.31 | -0.96 | -0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.96 |
| 2019 | #86 | Kahale Warring | OFF | -0.76 | -0.57 | -1.52 | -0.23 | — | -0.09 | -0.03 | -1.24 |
| 2019 | #54 | Lonnie Johnson Jr. | DEF | -0.34 | -0.52 | -0.13 | -0.53 | -0.91 | -0.32 | -0.19 | -1.30 |
| 2020 | #40 | Ross Blacklock | DEF | -0.38 | -0.71 | -0.67 | -0.54 | -1.16 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -1.53 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.