Tom Heckert
PHI · Composite skill θ = -0.23 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.84 to +0.38
Evidence: 34 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2006–2009 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.28
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2006–2009PHI
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | #53 | LeSean McCoy | OFF | +2.07 |
| 2007 | #162 | Brent Celek | OFF | +1.69 |
| 2006 | #168 | Omar Gaither | DEF | +0.73 |
| 2006 | #99 | Max Jean-Gilles | OFF | +0.71 |
| 2006 | #71 | Chris Gocong | DEF | +0.68 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | #117 | Quintin Demps | DEF | -2.18 |
| 2008 | #49 | DeSean Jackson | OFF | -1.60 |
| 2008 | #203 | Andy Studebaker | DEF | -1.52 |
| 2008 | #200 | Joe Mays | DEF | -1.32 |
| 2008 | #109 | Mike McGlynn | OFF | -1.19 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 34 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2009 | #53 | LeSean McCoy | OFF | -0.13 | +0.34 | -0.01 | +0.81 | +0.12 | -0.29 | +3.40 | +2.07 |
| 2007 | #162 | Brent Celek | OFF | +2.48 | +2.40 | +0.99 | +0.77 | -0.94 | -0.22 | -0.14 | +1.69 |
| 2006 | #168 | Omar Gaither | DEF | +0.52 | +0.32 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | +0.73 |
| 2006 | #99 | Max Jean-Gilles | OFF | +0.43 | +0.29 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.71 |
| 2006 | #71 | Chris Gocong | DEF | +0.28 | +0.46 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.68 |
| 2009 | #230 | Moise Fokou | DEF | +0.43 | +0.35 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.63 |
| 2007 | #87 | Stewart Bradley | DEF | +0.16 | +0.26 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.44 |
| 2006 | #204 | LaJuan Ramsey | DEF | +0.03 | +0.02 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2009 | #157 | Victor Harris | DEF | -0.11 | +0.09 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2008 | #47 | Trevor Laws | DEF | +0.57 | -0.45 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2007 | #236 | Nate Ilaoa | OFF | -0.32 | +0.09 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2006 | #109 | Jason Avant | OFF | +1.23 | +0.32 | -0.03 | +0.20 | -1.14 | -0.23 | -0.14 | -0.15 |
| 2007 | #201 | Rashad Barksdale | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2009 | #153 | Cornelius Ingram | OFF | -0.53 | -0.18 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2007 | #57 | Victor Abiamiri | DEF | -0.03 | -0.26 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2007 | #159 | C.J. Gaddis | DEF | -0.44 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2006 | #147 | Jeremy Bloom | DEF | -0.46 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2008 | #131 | Jack Ikegwuonu | DEF | -0.50 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2009 | #19 | Jeremy Maclin | OFF | +0.02 | +0.47 | -0.27 | +0.16 | -0.20 | -0.68 | -0.39 | -0.48 |
| 2008 | #230 | King Dunlap | OFF | +0.10 | -0.38 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.49 |
| 2007 | #90 | Tony Hunt | OFF | -0.30 | -0.17 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| 2009 | #159 | Fenuki Tupou | OFF | -0.48 | -0.31 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 2009 | #194 | Brandon Gibson | OFF | -0.56 | -0.22 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 2007 | #36 | Kevin Kolb | OFF | -0.25 | -0.39 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 2006 | #14 | Brodrick Bunkley | DEF | +0.04 | -0.16 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.45 | -0.23 | -0.75 |
| 2009 | #213 | Paul Fanaika | OFF | -0.57 | -0.39 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.78 |
| 2008 | #184 | Mike Gibson | OFF | -0.61 | -0.42 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| 2006 | #39 | Winston Justice | OFF | -0.30 | -0.42 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.92 |
| 2008 | #80 | Bryan Smith | DEF | -0.75 | -0.42 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.95 |
| 2008 | #109 | Mike McGlynn | OFF | -0.73 | -0.57 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -1.19 |
| 2008 | #200 | Joe Mays | DEF | -0.75 | -0.62 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -1.32 |
| 2008 | #203 | Andy Studebaker | DEF | -1.06 | -0.64 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -1.52 |
| 2008 | #49 | DeSean Jackson | OFF | -0.73 | +0.12 | -1.72 | -0.02 | +0.24 | -0.17 | -1.71 | -1.60 |
| 2008 | #117 | Quintin Demps | DEF | -1.00 | -1.13 | — | -0.93 | — | -0.20 | -0.16 | -2.18 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.