Carl Peterson
KC · Composite skill θ = +0.59 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.11 to +1.08
Composite θ
+0.59
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.11–+1.08
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
99%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 147 mapped picks across 20 draft classes, 1989–2008 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.34
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1989–2008KCLong-tenured
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | #74 | Will Shields | OFF | +14.21 |
| 1997 | #13 | Tony Gonzalez | OFF | +8.96 |
| 1989 | #4 | Derrick Thomas | DEF | +8.80 |
| 2008 | #73 | Jamaal Charles | OFF | +4.33 |
| 1990 | #40 | Tim Grunhard | OFF | +4.22 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #127 | Bracy Walker | DEF | -2.54 |
| 1996 | #135 | Joe Horn | OFF | -2.41 |
| 2002 | #6 | Ryan Sims | DEF | -2.12 |
| 2005 | #187 | Will Svitek | OFF | -2.09 |
| 2005 | #99 | Dustin Colquitt | ST | -2.06 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 147 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1993 | #74 | Will Shields | OFF | +2.80 | +3.94 | — | +4.56 | — | +8.93 | +3.62 | +14.21 |
| 1997 | #13 | Tony Gonzalez | OFF | +0.83 | +1.46 | — | +1.10 | — | +6.26 | +7.17 | +8.96 |
| 1989 | #4 | Derrick Thomas | DEF | +1.68 | +1.98 | — | +3.20 | — | +4.80 | +2.75 | +8.80 |
| 2008 | #73 | Jamaal Charles | OFF | +0.51 | +0.48 | -0.11 | +1.65 | +1.08 | +1.48 | +3.85 | +4.33 |
| 1990 | #40 | Tim Grunhard | OFF | +2.02 | +2.71 | — | +1.84 | — | +0.42 | -0.41 | +4.22 |
| 1990 | #180 | Dave Szott | OFF | +1.07 | +1.81 | — | +1.16 | — | -0.37 | +1.84 | +3.34 |
| 2006 | #20 | Tamba Hali | DEF | +1.85 | +2.26 | -0.44 | +2.01 | +0.72 | +2.12 | -0.65 | +3.33 |
| 2000 | #85 | Greg Wesley | DEF | +1.67 | +2.07 | — | +1.34 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +3.14 |
| 2000 | #153 | Dante Hall | OFF | +1.14 | -0.49 | — | +0.55 | — | +2.11 | +2.10 | +2.98 |
| 2003 | #27 | Larry Johnson | OFF | +0.11 | +0.20 | — | +1.07 | — | +1.67 | +1.84 | +2.98 |
| 1998 | #216 | Eric Warfield | DEF | +1.91 | +1.66 | — | +1.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.87 |
| 1996 | #28 | Jerome Woods | DEF | +1.22 | +1.36 | — | +0.73 | — | +0.65 | -0.33 | +2.18 |
| 1996 | #68 | John Browning | DEF | +1.26 | +1.44 | — | +0.85 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | +2.05 |
| 2006 | #228 | Jarrad Page | DEF | +0.78 | +0.93 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.51 |
| 2004 | #126 | Jared Allen | DEF | -0.50 | +0.07 | — | +0.27 | — | +0.85 | +2.00 | +1.47 |
| 2007 | #23 | Dwayne Bowe | OFF | +1.12 | +1.64 | -0.10 | +1.12 | -0.25 | +0.55 | -0.31 | +1.45 |
| 1995 | #207 | Tom Barndt | DEF | +0.80 | +0.55 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.22 |
| 2001 | #212 | Shaunard Harts | DEF | +0.95 | +0.51 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.17 |
| 2004 | #105 | Samie Parker | OFF | +0.61 | +0.67 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.09 |
| 1994 | #92 | Lake Dawson | OFF | +0.50 | +0.52 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.89 |
| 2005 | #15 | Derrick Johnson | DEF | +1.36 | +1.98 | -0.82 | +1.57 | +0.10 | -0.86 | -0.72 | +0.88 |
| 2000 | #54 | William Bartee | DEF | +1.21 | +0.28 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.86 |
| 1996 | #98 | Donnie Edwards | DEF | +0.47 | +0.96 | — | +0.62 | — | -0.52 | -0.46 | +0.84 |
| 1993 | #186 | Danan Hughes | OFF | +1.54 | -0.06 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.80 |
| 2008 | #35 | Brandon Flowers | DEF | +0.44 | +1.06 | -0.40 | +0.44 | +1.03 | -0.38 | -0.27 | +0.79 |
| 1998 | #181 | Derrick Ransom | DEF | +0.64 | +0.40 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.76 |
| 2008 | #170 | Barry Richardson | OFF | +0.53 | +0.47 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.73 |
| 1991 | #77 | Tim Barnett | OFF | +0.46 | +0.03 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.54 |
| 2007 | #82 | Tank Tyler | DEF | +0.26 | +0.23 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.47 |
| 2000 | #162 | Pat Dennis | DEF | +0.01 | +0.32 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.46 |
| 2003 | #252 | Willie Pile | DEF | +0.15 | +0.22 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 |
| 2001 | #75 | Eric Downing | DEF | +0.41 | +0.08 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.36 |
| 2001 | #150 | Derrick Blaylock | OFF | +0.35 | -0.04 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.36 |
| 2005 | #229 | James Kilian | OFF | +0.04 | +0.23 | — | +0.19 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 |
| 1994 | #199 | Steve Matthews | OFF | +0.02 | +0.23 | — | +0.18 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 2006 | #190 | Jeff Webb | OFF | +0.40 | +0.07 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.29 |
| 1994 | #219 | Tracy Greene | OFF | -0.15 | +0.08 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.27 |
| 2001 | #141 | Bill Baber | OFF | +0.23 | -0.07 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.24 |
| 2004 | #231 | Kevin Sampson | OFF | +0.10 | +0.06 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.24 |
| 2007 | #148 | Kolby Smith | OFF | +0.17 | +0.19 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 1990 | #96 | Fred Jones | OFF | +0.44 | -0.07 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 1990 | #152 | Tom Sims | DEF | +0.22 | -0.05 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 2006 | #85 | Brodie Croyle | OFF | +0.14 | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 1999 | #108 | Larry Parker | OFF | +0.43 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 2005 | #138 | Boomer Grigsby | DEF | +0.52 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1994 | #25 | Greg Hill | OFF | +0.45 | -0.25 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | +0.10 |
| 1995 | #134 | Steve Stenstrom | OFF | -0.11 | +0.10 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 1996 | #245 | Darrell Williams | DEF | -0.23 | +0.10 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2003 | #230 | Montique Sharpe | DEF | -0.14 | +0.08 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2003 | #189 | Jimmy Wilkerson | DEF | +0.81 | -0.38 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.07 |
| 1996 | #241 | Jeff Smith | OFF | +0.27 | -0.12 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2007 | #231 | Michael Allan | OFF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2008 | #239 | Mike Merritt | OFF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 1999 | #84 | Larry Atkins | DEF | +0.45 | -0.33 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 1995 | #202 | Bryan Proby | DEF | -0.21 | +0.06 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2003 | #47 | Kawika Mitchell | DEF | -0.01 | +0.30 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.18 | -0.12 | +0.01 |
| 2008 | #210 | Brian Johnston | DEF | -0.13 | +0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1998 | #224 | Ernest Blackwell | OFF | -0.28 | +0.14 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1998 | #88 | Rashaan Shehee | OFF | +0.02 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 1998 | #128 | Robert Williams | DEF | -0.04 | -0.08 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2002 | #107 | Omar Easy | OFF | +0.36 | -0.12 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1997 | #110 | Pat Barnes | OFF | -0.17 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 1989 | #88 | Stan Petry | DEF | +0.22 | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2000 | #208 | Desmond Kitchings | OFF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 2005 | #199 | Khari Long | DEF | -0.30 | +0.02 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 1994 | #96 | Chris Penn | OFF | -0.10 | +0.08 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| 1991 | #189 | Bernard Ellison | DEF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2001 | #77 | Snoop Minnis | OFF | -0.23 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2003 | #92 | Julian Battle | DEF | +0.06 | -0.22 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1994 | #156 | Rob Waldrop | DEF | -0.31 | -0.02 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1994 | #185 | Anthony Daigle | OFF | -0.35 | +0.07 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1996 | #176 | Dietrich Jells | OFF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2004 | #195 | Jeris McIntyre | OFF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2008 | #76 | Brad Cottam | OFF | -0.15 | -0.18 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| 1991 | #162 | Darrell Malone | DEF | -0.30 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1992 | #186 | Erick Anderson | DEF | -0.23 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2008 | #182 | Kevin Robinson | OFF | -0.20 | -0.05 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1995 | #155 | Mike Pelton | DEF | -0.38 | -0.02 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.19 |
| 2007 | #160 | Justin Medlock | ST | -0.62 | +0.06 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| 1994 | #58 | Donnell Bennett | OFF | +0.78 | -0.44 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.22 |
| 1997 | #163 | June Henley | OFF | -0.39 | +0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2002 | #221 | Maurice Rodriguez | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1994 | #151 | James Burton | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2008 | #82 | DaJuan Morgan | DEF | +0.02 | -0.28 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| 1993 | #159 | Darius Turner | OFF | -0.41 | +0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1999 | #220 | Eric King | OFF | -0.28 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 1997 | #214 | Nathan Parks | OFF | -0.28 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 1992 | #101 | Mike Evans | DEF | -0.24 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1992 | #159 | Tony Smith | OFF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1998 | #27 | Victor Riley | OFF | -0.12 | +0.08 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.23 | -0.14 | -0.26 |
| 2000 | #115 | Frank Moreau | OFF | -0.24 | -0.09 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2005 | #238 | Jeremy Parquet | OFF | -0.28 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2006 | #154 | Marcus Maxey | DEF | -0.42 | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1995 | #81 | Tamarick Vanover | OFF | +0.51 | -0.62 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.30 |
| 2000 | #188 | Darnell Alford | OFF | -0.26 | -0.17 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2005 | #147 | Alphonso Hodge | DEF | -0.45 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1991 | #133 | Charles Mincy | DEF | -0.12 | -0.09 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.33 |
| 1993 | #103 | Jaime Fields | DEF | -0.20 | -0.20 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1995 | #164 | Jerrott Willard | DEF | -0.43 | -0.10 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2001 | #176 | Alex Sulfsted | OFF | -0.36 | -0.20 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2008 | #105 | Will Franklin | OFF | -0.26 | -0.20 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2006 | #186 | Tre Stallings | OFF | -0.36 | -0.22 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1989 | #171 | Ron Sancho | DEF | -0.48 | -0.12 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1997 | #195 | Isaac Byrd | OFF | -0.49 | -0.13 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1991 | #50 | Joe Valerio | OFF | +0.54 | -0.69 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.47 |
| 1995 | #97 | Troy Dumas | DEF | -0.28 | -0.28 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2001 | #108 | George Layne | OFF | -0.53 | -0.11 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2005 | #116 | Craphonso Thorpe | OFF | -0.51 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1996 | #58 | Reggie Tongue | DEF | -0.20 | +0.00 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.27 | -0.20 | -0.49 |
| 1999 | #75 | Gary Stills | DEF | +0.49 | -1.16 | — | -0.56 | — | +0.91 | -0.09 | -0.49 |
| 2007 | #196 | Herbert Taylor | OFF | -0.14 | -0.36 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1997 | #47 | Kevin Lockett | OFF | +0.20 | -0.62 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.53 |
| 1993 | #130 | Lindsay Knapp | OFF | -0.42 | -0.29 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2008 | #15 | Branden Albert | OFF | +0.22 | +0.49 | -0.53 | -0.27 | +0.11 | -0.69 | -0.44 | -0.59 |
| 1989 | #60 | Naz Worthen | OFF | -0.23 | -0.35 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.61 |
| 2003 | #113 | Brett Williams | OFF | -0.40 | -0.35 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1990 | #127 | Ken Hackemack | OFF | -0.49 | -0.31 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2007 | #54 | Turk McBride | DEF | -0.33 | -0.34 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.62 |
| 2002 | #43 | Eddie Freeman | DEF | -0.26 | -0.47 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 1999 | #54 | Mike Cloud | OFF | +0.24 | -0.53 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.75 |
| 2003 | #153 | Jordan Black | OFF | -0.31 | -0.37 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.13 | -0.10 | -0.80 |
| 1990 | #124 | Derrick Graham | OFF | -0.09 | -0.61 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.86 |
| 2000 | #21 | Sylvester Morris | OFF | -0.51 | -0.32 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.87 |
| 1989 | #32 | Mike Elkins | OFF | -0.49 | -0.42 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | -0.88 |
| 2004 | #61 | Kris Wilson | OFF | -0.16 | -0.33 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.91 |
| 1996 | #211 | Ben Lynch | OFF | -0.69 | -0.48 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.98 |
| 1990 | #13 | Percy Snow | DEF | -0.33 | -0.55 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.04 |
| 1992 | #40 | Matt Blundin | OFF | -0.60 | -0.49 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.04 |
| 1989 | #143 | Robb Thomas | OFF | -0.54 | -0.31 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.15 | -0.09 | -1.06 |
| 2006 | #54 | Bernard Pollard | DEF | -0.41 | -0.32 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.24 | -0.18 | -1.10 |
| 1999 | #14 | John Tait | OFF | -0.18 | -0.12 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.74 | -0.50 | -1.14 |
| 2001 | #107 | Monty Beisel | DEF | -0.02 | -0.73 | — | -0.67 | — | -0.12 | -0.10 | -1.15 |
| 2004 | #93 | Keyaron Fox | DEF | -0.30 | -0.75 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | -1.18 |
| 2002 | #143 | Scott Fujita | DEF | -0.62 | -0.15 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.20 | -0.18 | -1.19 |
| 1992 | #20 | Dale Carter | DEF | -0.38 | -0.07 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.86 | -1.71 | -1.29 |
| 1995 | #31 | Trezelle Jenkins | OFF | -0.61 | -0.75 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.29 |
| 1998 | #120 | Greg Favors | DEF | -0.77 | -0.63 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -1.32 |
| 2008 | #5 | Glenn Dorsey | DEF | -0.30 | -0.08 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.69 | -0.40 | -1.38 |
| 2008 | #140 | Brandon Carr | DEF | -0.70 | +0.08 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.43 | -0.42 | -1.44 |
| 2001 | #243 | Terdell Sands | DEF | -1.05 | -0.62 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.46 |
| 2004 | #36 | Junior Siavii | DEF | -0.57 | -0.90 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | -1.51 |
| 1991 | #21 | Harvey Williams | OFF | -0.68 | -1.01 | — | -0.79 | — | -0.37 | -0.20 | -1.92 |
| 2005 | #99 | Dustin Colquitt | ST | +2.41 | -2.36 | -1.68 | -1.24 | -0.99 | +0.86 | -1.68 | -2.06 |
| 2005 | #187 | Will Svitek | OFF | -1.03 | -1.02 | — | -0.97 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | -2.09 |
| 2002 | #6 | Ryan Sims | DEF | -0.40 | -0.78 | — | -1.14 | — | -0.50 | -0.28 | -2.12 |
| 1996 | #135 | Joe Horn | OFF | -0.74 | -1.35 | — | -1.14 | — | -0.28 | -0.19 | -2.41 |
| 1994 | #127 | Bracy Walker | DEF | -0.61 | -1.42 | — | -1.29 | — | -0.25 | -0.22 | -2.54 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.