Ryan Grigson
IND · Composite skill θ = +0.17 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.42 to +0.75
Evidence: 38 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2012–2016 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.23
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2012–2016INDLuck era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | #92 | T.Y. Hilton | OFF | +3.07 |
| 2012 | #1 | Andrew Luck | OFF | +2.90 |
| 2016 | #18 | Ryan Kelly | OFF | +1.69 |
| 2015 | #151 | David Parry | DEF | +1.36 |
| 2012 | #34 | Coby Fleener | OFF | +1.22 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #29 | Phillip Dorsett | OFF | -2.86 |
| 2015 | #65 | D'Joun Smith | DEF | -1.21 |
| 2016 | #116 | Hassan Ridgeway | DEF | -1.20 |
| 2016 | #57 | T.J. Green | DEF | -0.85 |
| 2015 | #93 | Henry Anderson | DEF | -0.84 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 38 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2012 | #92 | T.Y. Hilton | OFF | +1.51 | +1.89 | +1.69 | +2.29 | +1.43 | -0.61 | -0.37 | +3.07 |
| 2012 | #1 | Andrew Luck | OFF | +0.94 | +0.86 | +0.91 | +1.56 | +0.80 | +1.75 | -0.11 | +2.90 |
| 2016 | #18 | Ryan Kelly | OFF | +0.74 | +1.27 | +0.26 | +0.84 | -0.24 | +2.42 | -1.16 | +1.69 |
| 2015 | #151 | David Parry | DEF | +0.19 | +0.66 | +1.24 | +0.42 | +0.93 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.36 |
| 2012 | #34 | Coby Fleener | OFF | +0.27 | +0.34 | +0.75 | +0.28 | +1.48 | -0.15 | -0.06 | +1.22 |
| 2015 | #109 | Clayton Geathers | DEF | +0.65 | +0.59 | +0.44 | +0.37 | +0.53 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.98 |
| 2012 | #136 | Josh Chapman | DEF | +0.14 | +0.22 | +0.97 | +0.18 | +0.89 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.96 |
| 2014 | #59 | Jack Mewhort | OFF | +0.23 | +0.52 | +0.58 | +0.45 | +0.27 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.75 |
| 2016 | #155 | Joe Haeg | OFF | +0.31 | +0.18 | +0.51 | +0.23 | +0.59 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.67 |
| 2013 | #86 | Hugh Thornton | OFF | +0.15 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.32 | +0.36 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.56 |
| 2012 | #206 | LaVon Brazill | OFF | +0.19 | -0.07 | +1.20 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.49 |
| 2012 | #170 | Vick Ballard | OFF | -0.11 | +0.27 | +0.72 | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 2015 | #255 | Denzelle Good | OFF | -0.19 | -0.06 | +0.33 | -0.03 | +0.62 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.29 |
| 2012 | #253 | Chandler Harnish | OFF | -0.03 | +0.17 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 2014 | #90 | Donte Moncrief | OFF | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.69 | +0.03 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.07 | +0.13 |
| 2012 | #64 | Dwayne Allen | OFF | +0.14 | +0.68 | +0.05 | +0.01 | -0.19 | -0.16 | -0.07 | +0.09 |
| 2013 | #230 | Kerwynn Williams | OFF | -0.40 | -0.01 | +0.89 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2016 | #125 | Antonio Morrison | DEF | -0.02 | +0.12 | +0.28 | +0.05 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.06 |
| 2013 | #254 | Justice Cunningham | OFF | -0.40 | -0.09 | -0.11 | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2013 | #139 | Montori Hughes | DEF | -0.19 | -0.18 | +0.22 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2014 | #232 | Ulrick John | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | +0.64 | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2012 | #214 | Tim Fugger | DEF | -0.41 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 2014 | #166 | Jonathan Newsome | DEF | +0.10 | -0.19 | -0.16 | -0.06 | -0.46 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.36 |
| 2013 | #121 | Khaled Holmes | OFF | -0.23 | -0.21 | -0.47 | -0.14 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| 2013 | #24 | Bjoern Werner | DEF | -0.09 | -0.36 | -0.51 | -0.26 | +0.17 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.43 |
| 2013 | #192 | John Boyett | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | -0.53 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2014 | #203 | Andrew Jackson | DEF | -0.24 | -0.21 | -0.51 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2012 | #208 | Justin Anderson | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2015 | #205 | Josh Robinson | OFF | -0.39 | -0.08 | -0.62 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2016 | #239 | Trevor Bates | DEF | -0.52 | -0.20 | -0.36 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2016 | #82 | Le'Raven Clark | OFF | -0.08 | -0.59 | -0.99 | -0.35 | +0.31 | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.71 |
| 2015 | #207 | Amarlo Herrera | DEF | -0.50 | -0.22 | -0.78 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 2016 | #248 | Austin Blythe | OFF | -0.66 | -0.62 | +0.50 | -0.49 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.79 |
| 2015 | #93 | Henry Anderson | DEF | -0.65 | -0.39 | -0.11 | -0.42 | -0.26 | -0.17 | -0.07 | -0.84 |
| 2016 | #57 | T.J. Green | DEF | -0.36 | -0.47 | -0.53 | -0.40 | -0.19 | -0.13 | -0.08 | -0.85 |
| 2016 | #116 | Hassan Ridgeway | DEF | -0.48 | -0.70 | -0.37 | -0.55 | -0.59 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -1.20 |
| 2015 | #65 | D'Joun Smith | DEF | -0.76 | -0.53 | -1.00 | -0.40 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.21 |
| 2015 | #29 | Phillip Dorsett | OFF | -1.21 | -1.32 | -1.16 | -1.15 | -0.69 | -0.93 | -0.48 | -2.86 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.