Butch Davis
CLE · Composite skill θ = -0.43 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.26 to +0.40
Evidence: 21 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2002–2004 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.20
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2002–2004CLEHC with personnel control
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | #141 | Andra Davis | DEF | +1.77 |
| 2003 | #142 | Ryan Pontbriand | OFF | +1.53 |
| 2002 | #227 | Joaquin Gonzalez | OFF | +0.79 |
| 2002 | #111 | Ben Taylor | DEF | +0.77 |
| 2002 | #122 | Darnell Sanders | OFF | +0.33 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | #6 | Kellen Winslow | OFF | -2.93 |
| 2004 | #106 | Luke McCown | OFF | -2.91 |
| 2003 | #21 | Jeff Faine | OFF | -2.65 |
| 2003 | #195 | Antonio Garay | DEF | -2.01 |
| 2003 | #84 | Chris Crocker | DEF | -1.94 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 21 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2002 | #141 | Andra Davis | DEF | +0.98 | +1.21 | — | +0.80 | — | -0.14 | -0.12 | +1.77 |
| 2003 | #142 | Ryan Pontbriand | OFF | +1.98 | -1.00 | — | +0.03 | — | +2.09 | -0.07 | +1.53 |
| 2002 | #227 | Joaquin Gonzalez | OFF | +0.72 | +0.27 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.79 |
| 2002 | #111 | Ben Taylor | DEF | +0.35 | +0.47 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.77 |
| 2002 | #122 | Darnell Sanders | OFF | +0.10 | +0.23 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 2003 | #52 | Chaun Thompson | DEF | +0.73 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | +0.23 |
| 2003 | #115 | Lee Suggs | OFF | +0.08 | -0.02 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2004 | #59 | Sean Jones | DEF | +0.14 | +0.28 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.17 |
| 2003 | #152 | Michael Lehan | DEF | +0.16 | -0.14 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2004 | #208 | Adimchinobe Echemandu | OFF | -0.24 | +0.08 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2002 | #16 | William Green | OFF | +0.16 | +0.07 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.08 |
| 2002 | #76 | Melvin Fowler | OFF | -0.30 | -0.45 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.79 |
| 2002 | #47 | Andre' Davis | OFF | -0.39 | -0.46 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.92 |
| 2004 | #161 | Amon Gordon | DEF | -0.86 | -0.58 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.22 |
| 2004 | #176 | Kirk Chambers | OFF | -0.48 | -0.75 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.25 |
| 2002 | #101 | Kevin Bentley | DEF | -0.60 | -0.73 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.20 | -0.16 | -1.49 |
| 2003 | #84 | Chris Crocker | DEF | -0.81 | -0.79 | — | -0.86 | — | -0.31 | -0.26 | -1.94 |
| 2003 | #195 | Antonio Garay | DEF | -1.27 | -0.89 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -2.01 |
| 2003 | #21 | Jeff Faine | OFF | -1.09 | -0.85 | — | -1.11 | — | -0.69 | -0.45 | -2.65 |
| 2004 | #106 | Luke McCown | OFF | -1.60 | -1.23 | — | -1.34 | — | -0.25 | -0.06 | -2.91 |
| 2004 | #6 | Kellen Winslow | OFF | -1.06 | -0.95 | — | -0.99 | — | -1.15 | -0.71 | -2.93 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.