Jason Licht
TB · Composite skill θ = +0.29 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.90 to +1.48
Composite θ
+0.29
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.90–+1.48
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
68%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 85 mapped picks across 12 draft classes, 2014–2025 · 71% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.04
- maturity discount
- -0.12
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2014–2025TB
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #13 | Tristan Wirfs | OFF | +7.00 |
| 2020 | #45 | Antoine Winfield Jr. | DEF | +4.69 |
| 2017 | #84 | Chris Godwin | OFF | +2.72 |
| 2015 | #61 | Ali Marpet | OFF | +2.55 |
| 2014 | #7 | Mike Evans | OFF | +2.47 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #1 | Jameis Winston | OFF | -2.72 |
| 2018 | #53 | M.J. Stewart | DEF | -2.40 |
| 2017 | #162 | Jeremy McNichols | OFF | -2.28 |
| 2018 | #144 | Justin Watson | OFF | -1.78 |
| 2016 | #11 | Vernon Hargreaves III | DEF | -1.48 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 85 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2020 | #13 | Tristan Wirfs | OFF | +0.72 | +0.99 | +1.14 | +1.73 | +1.47 | +4.89 | +4.01 | +7.00 |
| 2020 | #45 | Antoine Winfield Jr. | DEF | +0.79 | +1.40 | +0.77 | +1.31 | +2.15 | +1.94 | +2.01 | +4.69 |
| 2017 | #84 | Chris Godwin | OFF | +1.27 | +1.30 | +1.66 | +1.61 | +0.68 | +0.58 | -0.27 | +2.72 |
| 2015 | #61 | Ali Marpet | OFF | +1.17 | +1.71 | +1.74 | +1.29 | -0.03 | +0.88 | -0.11 | +2.55 |
| 2014 | #7 | Mike Evans | OFF | +1.59 | +2.33 | +2.28 | +1.96 | -0.02 | +2.00 | -3.13 | +2.47 |
| 2018 | #12 | Vita Vea | DEF | +0.88 | +1.30 | +0.82 | +1.00 | +0.15 | +1.30 | -0.39 | +2.03 |
| 2022 | #106 | Cade Otton | OFF | +0.76 | +1.19 | +1.67 | +0.69 | +0.51 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +1.77 |
| 2024 | #125 | Bucky Irving | OFF | +0.26 | +0.34 | +0.46 | +0.70 | +2.16 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.77 |
| 2023 | #82 | YaYa Diaby | DEF | +0.61 | +0.83 | +0.69 | +0.64 | +1.39 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.70 |
| 2022 | #157 | Zyon McCollum | DEF | +0.86 | +0.92 | +1.44 | +0.63 | +0.38 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.55 |
| 2019 | #94 | Jamel Dean | DEF | +1.07 | +1.28 | +1.12 | +0.65 | +0.41 | -0.19 | -0.12 | +1.53 |
| 2022 | #91 | Rachaad White | OFF | +0.84 | +0.97 | +1.29 | +0.85 | +0.12 | -0.09 | -0.04 | +1.46 |
| 2015 | #34 | Donovan Smith | OFF | +1.17 | +1.77 | +1.96 | +1.27 | -0.65 | -0.83 | -0.46 | +1.30 |
| 2018 | #117 | Jordan Whitehead | DEF | +0.56 | +1.11 | +0.90 | +0.47 | +0.58 | -0.13 | -0.09 | +1.27 |
| 2014 | #149 | Kevin Pamphile | OFF | +0.69 | +0.50 | +0.91 | +0.42 | +0.67 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.22 |
| 2022 | #133 | Jake Camarda | ST | +0.45 | +0.19 | +0.84 | +0.56 | +0.78 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.14 |
| 2025 | #157 | Elijah Roberts | DEF | +0.26 | +0.41 | +0.72 | +0.33 | +1.04 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.14 |
| 2023 | #191 | Trey Palmer | OFF | +0.59 | +0.43 | +0.89 | +0.32 | +0.26 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.92 |
| 2024 | #89 | Tykee Smith | DEF | +0.23 | +0.44 | +0.24 | +0.27 | +0.91 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.87 |
| 2025 | #235 | Tez Johnson | OFF | +0.38 | +0.50 | +0.84 | +0.28 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.86 |
| 2022 | #57 | Luke Goedeke | OFF | +0.36 | +0.59 | +0.37 | +0.40 | +0.15 | -0.10 | -0.04 | +0.65 |
| 2018 | #63 | Carlton Davis | DEF | +0.30 | +0.93 | +0.94 | +0.27 | +0.16 | -0.40 | -0.25 | +0.60 |
| 2022 | #33 | Logan Hall | DEF | +0.60 | +0.33 | +0.34 | +0.23 | +0.17 | -0.11 | -0.04 | +0.55 |
| 2024 | #92 | Jalen McMillan | OFF | -0.04 | +0.24 | -0.05 | +0.14 | +0.91 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2024 | #246 | Devin Culp | OFF | +0.25 | +0.11 | +0.05 | +0.36 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.49 |
| 2021 | #95 | Robert Hainsey | OFF | +0.54 | +0.24 | +0.02 | +0.13 | +0.30 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.42 |
| 2023 | #48 | Cody Mauch | OFF | +0.09 | +0.30 | +0.16 | +0.14 | +0.22 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.31 |
| 2023 | #153 | SirVocea Dennis | DEF | +0.27 | +0.25 | +0.21 | +0.17 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2023 | #181 | Josh Hayes | DEF | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.24 | +0.16 | -0.31 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2024 | #220 | Elijah Klein | OFF | +0.44 | -0.03 | +0.20 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 2019 | #107 | Anthony Nelson | DEF | +1.39 | -0.17 | +0.89 | +0.16 | -0.91 | -0.14 | -0.06 | +0.23 |
| 2021 | #32 | Joe Tryon-Shoyinka | DEF | +0.34 | +0.25 | -0.05 | +0.11 | +0.34 | -0.24 | -0.13 | +0.22 |
| 2023 | #171 | Payne Durham | OFF | +0.66 | +0.38 | +0.28 | +0.22 | -0.66 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 2025 | #19 | Emeka Egbuka | OFF | -0.25 | -0.20 | -0.07 | -0.23 | +1.04 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.21 |
| 2016 | #148 | Caleb Benenoch | OFF | +0.01 | -0.02 | -0.26 | +0.04 | +0.62 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.20 |
| 2021 | #176 | K.J. Britt | DEF | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.10 | +0.06 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.20 |
| 2023 | #196 | Jose Ramirez | DEF | -0.08 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 2019 | #5 | Devin White | DEF | +0.04 | +0.27 | +0.72 | +0.31 | +0.15 | -0.03 | -0.80 | +0.15 |
| 2018 | #38 | Ronald Jones II | OFF | +0.26 | -0.03 | -0.14 | +0.08 | +0.37 | -0.19 | -0.09 | +0.11 |
| 2014 | #69 | Charles Sims | OFF | +0.31 | -0.37 | +0.23 | +0.19 | -0.01 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.09 |
| 2015 | #124 | Kwon Alexander | DEF | -0.68 | -0.03 | +0.34 | -0.18 | +0.17 | +0.70 | -0.30 | +0.07 |
| 2023 | #19 | Calijah Kancey | DEF | -0.24 | -0.02 | -0.54 | -0.17 | +0.89 | -0.09 | -0.03 | +0.03 |
| 2022 | #218 | Ko Kieft | OFF | +0.76 | +0.35 | +0.19 | +0.13 | -0.90 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2024 | #26 | Graham Barton | OFF | +0.03 | +0.14 | +0.30 | -0.02 | -0.21 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| 2018 | #94 | Alex Cappa | OFF | -0.18 | +0.08 | +0.27 | +0.03 | +0.17 | -0.32 | -0.18 | -0.09 |
| 2016 | #183 | Devante Bond | DEF | +0.06 | -0.11 | +0.43 | -0.07 | -0.32 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| 2019 | #208 | Scott Miller | OFF | +0.23 | -0.35 | -0.16 | -0.16 | +0.24 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
| 2019 | #39 | Sean Murphy-Bunting | DEF | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.22 | -0.12 | +0.05 | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.14 |
| 2019 | #99 | Mike Edwards | DEF | +0.29 | -0.14 | -0.48 | -0.04 | +0.24 | -0.18 | -0.11 | -0.16 |
| 2014 | #38 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | OFF | -0.57 | -0.41 | -0.43 | -0.17 | +0.78 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.23 |
| 2025 | #121 | David Walker | DEF | -0.33 | -0.02 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2021 | #259 | Grant Stuard | DEF | -0.24 | -0.30 | +0.34 | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.32 |
| 2025 | #84 | Jacob Parrish | DEF | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.29 | +0.07 | -0.98 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2025 | #53 | Benjamin Morrison | DEF | -0.23 | -0.15 | -0.30 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2016 | #197 | Danny Vitale | OFF | -0.55 | -0.12 | +0.03 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 2015 | #184 | Kaelin Clay | OFF | -0.52 | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2021 | #129 | Jaelon Darden | OFF | -0.10 | -0.26 | -0.16 | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 2020 | #194 | Khalil Davis | DEF | -0.59 | -0.26 | +0.12 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2022 | #248 | Andre Anthony | DEF | -0.42 | -0.07 | -0.74 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2020 | #161 | Tyler Johnson | OFF | -0.14 | -0.33 | +0.20 | -0.24 | -0.40 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.47 |
| 2014 | #185 | Robert Herron | OFF | -0.30 | -0.14 | -0.57 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2016 | #108 | Ryan Smith | DEF | +0.66 | -0.29 | -0.41 | -0.21 | -0.57 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.50 |
| 2017 | #19 | O.J. Howard | OFF | +0.03 | +0.07 | -0.22 | -0.28 | -0.16 | -0.35 | -0.14 | -0.50 |
| 2017 | #223 | Stevie Tu'ikolovatu | DEF | -0.50 | -0.14 | -0.70 | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2019 | #145 | Matt Gay | ST | -0.74 | -0.38 | -0.10 | -0.18 | — | -0.13 | -0.10 | -0.69 |
| 2019 | #215 | Terry Beckner | DEF | -0.57 | -0.20 | -0.95 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.73 |
| 2015 | #162 | Kenny Bell | OFF | -0.57 | -0.21 | -0.85 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 2020 | #241 | Chapelle Russell | DEF | -0.38 | -0.29 | -0.82 | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 2017 | #107 | Kendell Beckwith | DEF | -0.45 | -0.23 | -0.74 | -0.19 | -0.35 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.79 |
| 2018 | #202 | Jack Cichy | DEF | -0.27 | -0.30 | -0.95 | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.80 |
| 2021 | #251 | Chris Wilcox | DEF | -0.58 | -0.23 | -1.06 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 2021 | #64 | Kyle Trask | OFF | -0.33 | -0.32 | -0.89 | -0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| 2020 | #245 | Raymond Calais | OFF | -0.58 | -0.15 | -1.04 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2015 | #231 | Joey Iosefa | OFF | -0.47 | -0.05 | -1.66 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.87 |
| 2016 | #59 | Roberto Aguayo | ST | -0.52 | -0.26 | -1.27 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.91 |
| 2014 | #143 | Kadeem Edwards | OFF | -0.61 | -0.43 | -0.89 | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.95 |
| 2017 | #50 | Justin Evans | DEF | -0.78 | -0.44 | -1.38 | -0.51 | +0.21 | -0.27 | -0.16 | -1.23 |
| 2024 | #57 | Chris Braswell | DEF | +0.15 | -0.40 | -0.30 | -0.30 | -1.72 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.23 |
| 2020 | #76 | Ke'Shawn Vaughn | OFF | +0.08 | -0.51 | -0.75 | -0.44 | -1.16 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -1.29 |
| 2016 | #39 | Noah Spence | DEF | -0.36 | -0.71 | -0.74 | -0.53 | -0.79 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -1.36 |
| 2016 | #11 | Vernon Hargreaves III | DEF | -0.54 | -0.36 | -0.18 | -0.72 | -1.01 | -0.32 | -0.21 | -1.48 |
| 2018 | #144 | Justin Watson | OFF | -0.32 | -0.74 | -0.60 | -0.72 | -1.42 | -0.20 | -0.11 | -1.78 |
| 2017 | #162 | Jeremy McNichols | OFF | -1.47 | -0.93 | -0.77 | -0.97 | — | -0.31 | -0.19 | -2.28 |
| 2018 | #53 | M.J. Stewart | DEF | -1.08 | -1.04 | -0.91 | -0.92 | -1.10 | -0.46 | -0.29 | -2.40 |
| 2015 | #1 | Jameis Winston | OFF | -0.34 | -0.41 | -0.18 | -0.26 | -0.44 | -3.21 | -0.92 | -2.72 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.