Mark Dominik
TB · Composite skill θ = -0.19 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.77 to +0.40
Evidence: 36 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2009–2013 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.19
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2009–2013TB
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | #58 | Lavonte David | DEF | +3.88 |
| 2012 | #31 | Doug Martin | OFF | +2.02 |
| 2010 | #101 | Mike Williams | OFF | +1.76 |
| 2010 | #3 | Gerald McCoy | DEF | +1.29 |
| 2013 | #126 | William Gholston | DEF | +1.12 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | #20 | Adrian Clayborn | DEF | -2.57 |
| 2013 | #147 | Steven Means | DEF | -2.50 |
| 2011 | #104 | Luke Stocker | OFF | -2.17 |
| 2012 | #140 | Najee Goode | DEF | -1.87 |
| 2012 | #7 | Mark Barron | DEF | -1.86 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 36 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2012 | #58 | Lavonte David | DEF | +2.31 | +3.61 | +3.91 | +3.09 | +0.02 | -2.19 | +0.26 | +3.88 |
| 2012 | #31 | Doug Martin | OFF | +0.27 | +0.79 | +0.21 | +0.67 | -0.21 | +0.76 | +1.97 | +2.02 |
| 2010 | #101 | Mike Williams | OFF | +0.69 | +1.17 | +0.76 | +0.91 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.76 |
| 2010 | #3 | Gerald McCoy | DEF | +0.36 | +0.82 | +0.82 | +0.57 | -0.18 | +0.59 | +0.27 | +1.29 |
| 2013 | #126 | William Gholston | DEF | +2.39 | +0.95 | +0.74 | +0.55 | -0.32 | -0.46 | -0.26 | +1.12 |
| 2010 | #253 | Erik Lorig | DEF | +1.05 | +0.70 | +1.95 | +0.14 | -0.39 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.11 |
| 2009 | #17 | Josh Freeman | OFF | +0.38 | +0.60 | -0.09 | +0.66 | — | -0.17 | -0.03 | +0.86 |
| 2009 | #233 | Sammie Stroughter | OFF | +0.48 | +0.12 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2010 | #210 | Cody Grimm | DEF | +0.17 | +0.28 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 2009 | #217 | E.J. Biggers | DEF | +0.33 | +0.29 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.38 |
| 2011 | #84 | Mason Foster | DEF | -0.01 | +0.52 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.42 | -0.17 | -0.12 | +0.36 |
| 2011 | #151 | Ahmad Black | DEF | +0.06 | -0.09 | +0.77 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.29 |
| 2013 | #43 | Johnthan Banks | DEF | +0.30 | +0.39 | +0.59 | -0.01 | -0.50 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.12 |
| 2010 | #172 | Brent Bowden | ST | -0.47 | +0.21 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2012 | #174 | Keith Tandy | DEF | +1.14 | -0.08 | +0.23 | +0.00 | -0.59 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.09 |
| 2011 | #222 | Anthony Gaitor | DEF | -0.10 | +0.01 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 2009 | #117 | Kyle Moore | DEF | -0.19 | -0.01 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2011 | #238 | Daniel Hardy | OFF | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2012 | #233 | Drake Dunsmore | OFF | -0.43 | -0.09 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2013 | #189 | Mike James | OFF | +0.06 | +0.01 | -0.17 | -0.04 | -0.26 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2011 | #51 | Da'Quan Bowers | DEF | +0.47 | -0.24 | +0.00 | -0.10 | -0.54 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| 2012 | #212 | Michael Smith | OFF | -0.41 | -0.02 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2011 | #187 | Allen Bradford | OFF | -0.44 | -0.04 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2009 | #81 | Roy Miller | DEF | +0.01 | -0.11 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.40 |
| 2010 | #67 | Myron Lewis | DEF | -0.07 | -0.40 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 2009 | #155 | Xavier Fulton | OFF | -0.49 | -0.31 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2010 | #35 | Brian Price | DEF | -0.40 | -0.24 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 2010 | #217 | Dekoda Watson | DEF | -0.05 | -0.87 | +0.16 | -0.66 | -0.47 | -0.12 | -0.11 | -0.94 |
| 2013 | #100 | Akeem Spence | DEF | -0.37 | -0.41 | +0.02 | -0.48 | -0.48 | -0.29 | -0.15 | -0.95 |
| 2013 | #73 | Mike Glennon | OFF | -0.76 | -0.49 | -0.47 | -0.48 | -0.15 | -0.23 | -0.04 | -1.01 |
| 2010 | #39 | Arrelious Benn | OFF | -0.57 | -0.47 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.31 | -0.16 | -1.52 |
| 2012 | #7 | Mark Barron | DEF | -0.86 | -0.68 | -0.61 | -1.04 | -0.05 | -0.66 | -0.52 | -1.86 |
| 2012 | #140 | Najee Goode | DEF | -1.18 | -0.82 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | -1.87 |
| 2011 | #104 | Luke Stocker | OFF | -0.02 | +0.09 | -1.00 | -1.07 | -1.89 | -0.49 | -0.27 | -2.17 |
| 2013 | #147 | Steven Means | DEF | -1.33 | -1.11 | -1.51 | -1.03 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | -2.50 |
| 2011 | #20 | Adrian Clayborn | DEF | -1.18 | -0.75 | -0.85 | -1.11 | -0.94 | -0.81 | -0.40 | -2.57 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.