Charley Armey
LAR · Composite skill θ = -0.57 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.34 to +0.20
Evidence: 53 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 2000–2005 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.37
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2000–2005LARVP Player Personnel; Greatest Show on Turf era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | #24 | Steven Jackson | OFF | +2.68 |
| 2005 | #66 | O.J. Atogwe | DEF | +2.03 |
| 2001 | #42 | Tommy Polley | DEF | +1.23 |
| 2003 | #43 | Pisa Tinoisamoa | DEF | +1.18 |
| 2005 | #19 | Alex Barron | OFF | +0.98 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #81 | Richie Incognito | OFF | -5.39 |
| 2005 | #250 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | OFF | -5.11 |
| 2001 | #29 | Ryan Pickett | DEF | -3.25 |
| 2000 | #94 | John St. Clair | OFF | -2.38 |
| 2001 | #12 | Damione Lewis | DEF | -2.18 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 53 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2004 | #24 | Steven Jackson | OFF | +0.76 | +1.32 | — | +1.46 | — | +1.53 | -1.17 | +2.68 |
| 2005 | #66 | O.J. Atogwe | DEF | +1.05 | +1.35 | — | +0.90 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +2.03 |
| 2001 | #42 | Tommy Polley | DEF | +0.54 | +0.78 | — | +0.60 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.23 |
| 2003 | #43 | Pisa Tinoisamoa | DEF | +0.58 | +1.19 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.19 | -0.13 | +1.18 |
| 2005 | #19 | Alex Barron | OFF | +0.70 | +0.90 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.98 |
| 2001 | #145 | Jerametrius Butler | DEF | +0.73 | +0.43 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.96 |
| 2005 | #50 | Ron Bartell | DEF | +0.80 | +0.77 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.16 | -0.11 | +0.92 |
| 2001 | #20 | Adam Archuleta | DEF | +0.45 | +0.81 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.15 | -0.10 | +0.80 |
| 2004 | #130 | Brandon Chillar | DEF | +0.57 | +0.58 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.77 |
| 2003 | #107 | DeJuan Groce | DEF | +0.49 | +0.36 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.72 |
| 2002 | #64 | Travis Fisher | DEF | +0.08 | +0.57 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | +0.38 |
| 2002 | #205 | Steve Bellisari | OFF | +0.02 | +0.22 | — | +0.18 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2002 | #243 | Chris Massey | OFF | +1.96 | -0.75 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | +0.29 |
| 2005 | #251 | Madison Hedgecock | OFF | +0.33 | +0.40 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.29 |
| 2004 | #201 | Jeff Smoker | OFF | +0.00 | +0.20 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.27 |
| 2003 | #172 | Kevin Garrett | DEF | +0.18 | -0.01 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 2000 | #139 | Brian Young | DEF | +0.19 | +0.07 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.17 |
| 2005 | #117 | Jerome Carter | DEF | +0.28 | -0.10 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2004 | #237 | Erik Jensen | OFF | -0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 2005 | #134 | Claude Terrell | OFF | +0.00 | +0.05 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2004 | #238 | Larry Turner | OFF | +0.23 | -0.09 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2002 | #84 | Lamar Gordon | OFF | -0.05 | +0.05 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| 2002 | #167 | Courtland Bullard | DEF | +0.03 | -0.08 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2003 | #254 | Richard Angulo | OFF | -0.35 | -0.13 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2001 | #197 | Francis St. Paul | OFF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2003 | #106 | Shaun McDonald | OFF | +0.44 | -0.45 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| 2003 | #170 | Shane Walton | DEF | -0.28 | -0.04 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2003 | #184 | Scott Tercero | OFF | -0.17 | -0.08 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2005 | #144 | Jerome Collins | OFF | -0.43 | -0.15 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2005 | #192 | Dante Ridgeway | OFF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2004 | #158 | Jason Shivers | DEF | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2000 | #220 | Andrew Kline | OFF | -0.28 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 2001 | #129 | Brandon Manumaleuna | OFF | +0.34 | +0.44 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.15 | -0.09 | -0.28 |
| 2003 | #148 | Dan Curley | OFF | -0.42 | -0.02 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2001 | #116 | Milton Wynn | OFF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2000 | #62 | Jacoby Shepherd | DEF | -0.13 | -0.33 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 2000 | #198 | Matt Bowen | DEF | -0.30 | -0.27 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| 2003 | #74 | Kevin Curtis | OFF | +0.01 | -0.53 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.53 |
| 2000 | #31 | Trung Canidate | OFF | +0.01 | -0.45 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.55 |
| 2002 | #95 | Eric Crouch | OFF | -0.54 | -0.21 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2002 | #130 | Travis Scott | OFF | -0.47 | -0.30 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2000 | #104 | Kaulana Noa | OFF | -0.53 | -0.36 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 2002 | #31 | Robert Thomas | DEF | -0.29 | -0.20 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.14 | -0.10 | -0.70 |
| 2004 | #91 | Anthony Hargrove | DEF | -0.33 | -0.24 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.72 |
| 2005 | #210 | Reggie Hodges | ST | -0.82 | -0.20 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.73 |
| 2001 | #83 | Brian Allen | DEF | -0.60 | -0.34 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 2003 | #12 | Jimmy Kennedy | DEF | -0.51 | -0.78 | — | -0.99 | — | -0.42 | -0.22 | -1.95 |
| 2003 | #251 | Scott Shanle | DEF | -1.24 | -0.91 | — | -0.95 | — | -0.07 | -0.07 | -2.10 |
| 2001 | #12 | Damione Lewis | DEF | -0.33 | -0.99 | — | -1.07 | — | -0.59 | -0.32 | -2.18 |
| 2000 | #94 | John St. Clair | OFF | -1.06 | -1.08 | — | -1.05 | — | -0.30 | -0.21 | -2.38 |
| 2001 | #29 | Ryan Pickett | DEF | -1.00 | -0.73 | — | -1.29 | — | -1.36 | -0.82 | -3.25 |
| 2005 | #250 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | OFF | -2.58 | -2.11 | — | -2.58 | — | -0.27 | -0.10 | -5.11 |
| 2005 | #81 | Richie Incognito | OFF | -2.08 | -1.48 | — | -2.19 | — | -1.51 | -1.32 | -5.39 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.