Terry Donahue
SF · Composite skill θ = +0.25 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.51 to +1.02
Evidence: 27 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2002–2004 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.24
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2002–2004SFVP Player Personnel
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | #239 | Eric Heitmann | OFF | +3.74 |
| 2004 | #104 | Isaac Sopoaga | DEF | +1.89 |
| 2004 | #198 | Keith Lewis | DEF | +1.38 |
| 2004 | #188 | Andy Lee | ST | +1.13 |
| 2004 | #58 | Shawntae Spencer | DEF | +0.88 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | #124 | Brandon Lloyd | OFF | -1.86 |
| 2004 | #31 | Rashaun Woods | OFF | -1.10 |
| 2002 | #172 | Josh Shaw | DEF | -0.84 |
| 2004 | #77 | Derrick Hamilton | OFF | -0.70 |
| 2003 | #57 | Anthony Adams | DEF | -0.63 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 27 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2002 | #239 | Eric Heitmann | OFF | +2.02 | +2.52 | — | +1.50 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +3.74 |
| 2004 | #104 | Isaac Sopoaga | DEF | +1.45 | +1.08 | — | +0.74 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | +1.89 |
| 2004 | #198 | Keith Lewis | DEF | +1.51 | +0.36 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.38 |
| 2004 | #188 | Andy Lee | ST | +0.58 | -2.63 | — | -1.78 | — | +2.58 | +5.30 | +1.13 |
| 2004 | #58 | Shawntae Spencer | DEF | +0.84 | +0.86 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.21 | -0.15 | +0.88 |
| 2003 | #197 | Arnaz Battle | OFF | +1.00 | +0.35 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.74 |
| 2003 | #161 | Aaron Walker | OFF | +0.33 | +0.07 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.47 |
| 2004 | #217 | Cody Pickett | OFF | +0.17 | +0.28 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.46 |
| 2003 | #26 | Kwame Harris | OFF | +0.67 | +0.19 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.36 |
| 2003 | #241 | Ken Dorsey | OFF | +0.15 | +0.37 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.36 |
| 2002 | #163 | Brandon Doman | OFF | -0.06 | +0.15 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2004 | #46 | Justin Smiley | OFF | +0.19 | +0.34 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.11 |
| 2002 | #102 | Jeff Chandler | ST | -0.35 | +0.13 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 2002 | #256 | Teddy Gaines | DEF | -0.22 | +0.10 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2002 | #201 | Mark Anelli | OFF | -0.31 | -0.02 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2004 | #226 | Christian Ferrara | DEF | -0.27 | +0.07 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 2002 | #69 | Saleem Rasheed | DEF | +0.36 | -0.30 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| 2002 | #27 | Mike Rumph | DEF | +0.02 | -0.13 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.28 |
| 2002 | #127 | Kevin Curtis | DEF | -0.47 | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2003 | #89 | Andrew Williams | DEF | -0.35 | -0.15 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2004 | #127 | Richard Seigler | DEF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2002 | #248 | Kyle Kosier | OFF | -0.15 | -0.21 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.60 |
| 2003 | #57 | Anthony Adams | DEF | -0.11 | -0.17 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.63 |
| 2004 | #77 | Derrick Hamilton | OFF | -0.57 | -0.29 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2002 | #172 | Josh Shaw | DEF | -0.68 | -0.36 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.84 |
| 2004 | #31 | Rashaun Woods | OFF | -0.49 | -0.61 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.10 |
| 2003 | #124 | Brandon Lloyd | OFF | -0.55 | -0.57 | -0.84 | -0.92 | — | -0.34 | -0.24 | -1.86 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.