Chuck Schmidt
DET · Composite skill θ = +0.35 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.33 to +1.03
Composite θ
+0.35
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.33–+1.03
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
85%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 79 mapped picks across 12 draft classes, 1989–2000 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.24
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1989–2000DETGM after Russ Thomas; Wayne Fontes era; long-tenured de facto GM through 2000
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | #3 | Barry Sanders | OFF | +14.32 |
| 1991 | #10 | Herman Moore | OFF | +4.96 |
| 1992 | #26 | Robert Porcher | DEF | +4.45 |
| 1995 | #141 | Stephen Boyd | DEF | +3.79 |
| 1995 | #20 | Luther Elliss | DEF | +3.16 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | #105 | Chris Oldham | DEF | -3.41 |
| 1992 | #56 | Jason Hanson | ST | -3.16 |
| 1998 | #60 | Charlie Batch | OFF | -2.71 |
| 1989 | #141 | Rodney Peete | OFF | -2.43 |
| 2000 | #253 | Alfonso Boone | DEF | -2.33 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 79 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1989 | #3 | Barry Sanders | OFF | +1.59 | +2.11 | — | +4.18 | — | +4.88 | +11.69 | +14.32 |
| 1991 | #10 | Herman Moore | OFF | +1.02 | +1.11 | — | +1.64 | — | -0.75 | +5.26 | +4.96 |
| 1992 | #26 | Robert Porcher | DEF | +2.17 | +2.41 | — | +1.69 | — | +1.36 | -0.43 | +4.45 |
| 1995 | #141 | Stephen Boyd | DEF | +1.18 | +1.33 | — | +1.47 | — | +2.15 | -0.02 | +3.79 |
| 1995 | #20 | Luther Elliss | DEF | +1.13 | +1.66 | — | +1.00 | — | +1.74 | -0.22 | +3.16 |
| 1992 | #53 | Tracy Scroggins | DEF | +1.69 | +1.15 | — | +0.97 | — | -0.25 | -0.12 | +2.20 |
| 1996 | #158 | Kerwin Waldroup | DEF | +0.60 | +0.93 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.53 |
| 1990 | #174 | Tracy Hayworth | DEF | +1.09 | +0.58 | — | +0.44 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 1998 | #50 | Germane Crowell | OFF | +0.61 | +0.50 | — | +0.69 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.23 |
| 1995 | #70 | David Sloan | OFF | +0.68 | +0.75 | — | +0.06 | — | +0.91 | -0.09 | +1.18 |
| 1989 | #115 | Lawrence Pete | DEF | +0.97 | +0.40 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.11 |
| 1994 | #154 | Tony Semple | OFF | +1.49 | +0.35 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +1.10 |
| 1991 | #118 | Scott Conover | OFF | +0.92 | +0.24 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.93 |
| 1995 | #192 | Cory Schlesinger | OFF | +2.54 | +1.17 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.22 | -0.18 | +0.85 |
| 1990 | #118 | Jeff Campbell | OFF | +0.77 | +0.16 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 1994 | #57 | Van Malone | DEF | +0.65 | +0.14 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.49 |
| 1991 | #91 | Kevin Scott | DEF | +0.49 | +0.07 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.48 |
| 2000 | #50 | Barrett Green | DEF | +0.31 | +0.43 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.47 |
| 1990 | #62 | Marc Spindler | DEF | +0.49 | +0.47 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.16 | -0.07 | +0.46 |
| 1994 | #215 | Tom Beer | DEF | +0.63 | +0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 1993 | #62 | Antonio London | DEF | +0.87 | -0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.37 |
| 1997 | #168 | Tony Ramirez | OFF | +0.36 | +0.08 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 1997 | #135 | Pete Chryplewicz | OFF | +0.42 | -0.05 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 1994 | #21 | Johnnie Morton | OFF | +0.67 | +0.85 | — | +0.57 | — | -1.28 | -0.79 | +0.30 |
| 1995 | #228 | Hessley Hempstead | OFF | +0.49 | -0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 1990 | #35 | Dan Owens | DEF | +0.91 | +0.25 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.36 | -0.17 | +0.21 |
| 1995 | #186 | Kevin Hickman | OFF | -0.06 | -0.03 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 1991 | #151 | Richie Andrews | ST | -0.43 | +0.26 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 1997 | #239 | Richard Jordan | DEF | +0.36 | -0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 1999 | #215 | Mike Pringley | DEF | -0.04 | +0.08 | — | +0.15 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 1993 | #147 | Greg Jeffries | DEF | +0.99 | -0.33 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.16 |
| 1994 | #93 | Shane Bonham | DEF | +0.77 | -0.28 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 1994 | #183 | Jocelyn Borgella | DEF | +0.03 | +0.01 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 1999 | #70 | Jared DeVries | DEF | +1.25 | -0.33 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | +0.08 |
| 1996 | #76 | Ryan Stewart | DEF | +0.39 | -0.23 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1997 | #232 | Marcus Harris | OFF | -0.23 | +0.10 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1997 | #54 | Kevin Abrams | DEF | +0.08 | -0.10 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 1997 | #5 | Bryant Westbrook | DEF | +0.34 | +0.22 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.13 | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| 1991 | #178 | Franklin Thomas | OFF | -0.41 | -0.06 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1993 | #68 | Mike Compton | OFF | +0.36 | +0.51 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.57 | -0.38 | -0.04 |
| 2000 | #20 | Stockar McDougle | OFF | +0.18 | +0.22 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.17 | -0.10 | -0.05 |
| 1997 | #206 | Terry Battle | OFF | -0.31 | +0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 1999 | #137 | Tyree Talton | DEF | -0.14 | -0.09 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 1999 | #103 | Sedrick Irvin | OFF | -0.05 | -0.12 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2000 | #181 | Quinton Reese | DEF | -0.33 | +0.02 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.09 |
| 1996 | #129 | Brad Ford | DEF | -0.11 | -0.10 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1998 | #185 | Jamaal Alexander | DEF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1989 | #59 | Mike Utley | OFF | +0.05 | -0.11 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| 1995 | #156 | Kez McCorvey | OFF | -0.16 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1997 | #161 | Duane Ashman | DEF | -0.36 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1989 | #170 | Jerry Woods | DEF | -0.35 | -0.05 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1997 | #130 | Matt Russell | DEF | -0.19 | -0.18 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1994 | #124 | Vaughn Bryant | DEF | -0.47 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1992 | #81 | Thomas McLemore | OFF | -0.38 | -0.29 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1995 | #163 | Ronald Cherry | OFF | -0.38 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1992 | #145 | Larry Tharpe | OFF | -0.09 | -0.24 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.47 |
| 1998 | #20 | Terry Fair | DEF | -0.24 | +0.06 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.23 | -0.16 | -0.48 |
| 1990 | #147 | Maurice Henry | DEF | -0.52 | -0.16 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2000 | #145 | Todd Franz | DEF | -0.61 | -0.25 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 1996 | #17 | Reggie Brown | DEF | -0.36 | -0.14 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.63 |
| 1991 | #58 | Reggie Barrett | OFF | -0.44 | -0.21 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1993 | #174 | Ty Hallock | OFF | -0.23 | -0.10 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.68 |
| 1999 | #9 | Chris Claiborne | DEF | -0.15 | +0.03 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.37 | -0.29 | -0.78 |
| 1990 | #90 | Rob Hinckley | DEF | -0.67 | -0.32 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 1997 | #35 | Juan Roque | OFF | -0.39 | -0.65 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.00 |
| 1999 | #177 | Clint Kriewaldt | DEF | -0.06 | -0.75 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.06 | -0.06 | -1.05 |
| 1989 | #30 | John Ford | OFF | -0.68 | -0.59 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.21 |
| 1990 | #7 | Andre Ware | OFF | -0.36 | -0.69 | — | -0.72 | — | -0.06 | -0.01 | -1.28 |
| 1996 | #23 | Jeff Hartings | OFF | -0.41 | -0.03 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.84 | -0.55 | -1.39 |
| 1999 | #27 | Aaron Gibson | OFF | -0.80 | -0.72 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.44 |
| 1993 | #33 | Ryan McNeil | DEF | -0.58 | -0.40 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.60 | -0.45 | -1.74 |
| 2000 | #81 | Reuben Droughns | OFF | -1.22 | -0.85 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.21 | -0.13 | -2.11 |
| 1998 | #207 | Chris Liwienski | OFF | -1.34 | -1.06 | — | -1.00 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -2.27 |
| 1989 | #86 | Ray Crockett | DEF | -0.69 | -0.57 | — | -0.96 | — | -0.76 | -0.65 | -2.30 |
| 2000 | #253 | Alfonso Boone | DEF | -1.48 | -1.00 | — | -1.04 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -2.33 |
| 1989 | #141 | Rodney Peete | OFF | -1.50 | -0.83 | — | -0.97 | — | -0.47 | -0.12 | -2.43 |
| 1998 | #60 | Charlie Batch | OFF | -1.42 | -0.88 | — | -1.05 | — | -0.81 | -0.20 | -2.71 |
| 1992 | #56 | Jason Hanson | ST | +3.31 | -3.53 | — | -0.63 | — | -1.33 | -3.51 | -3.16 |
| 1990 | #105 | Chris Oldham | DEF | -1.66 | -1.53 | — | -1.50 | — | -0.34 | -0.28 | -3.41 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.