Brian Gutekunst
GB · Composite skill θ = +0.14 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.25 to +1.53
Composite θ
+0.14
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.25–+1.53
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
58%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 80 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 2018–2025 · 56% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.16
- maturity discount
- -0.11
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2018–2025GB
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | #44 | Elgton Jenkins | OFF | +2.88 |
| 2022 | #249 | Rasheed Walker | OFF | +2.56 |
| 2022 | #132 | Romeo Doubs | OFF | +1.82 |
| 2022 | #140 | Zach Tom | OFF | +1.77 |
| 2020 | #192 | Jon Runyan Jr. | OFF | +1.75 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #88 | Oren Burks | DEF | -1.81 |
| 2023 | #13 | Lukas Van Ness | DEF | -1.65 |
| 2021 | #85 | Amari Rodgers | OFF | -1.38 |
| 2019 | #75 | Jace Sternberger | OFF | -1.29 |
| 2018 | #138 | Cole Madison | OFF | -1.21 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 80 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2019 | #44 | Elgton Jenkins | OFF | +0.87 | +1.31 | +0.66 | +1.27 | +1.05 | +1.75 | -0.22 | +2.88 |
| 2022 | #249 | Rasheed Walker | OFF | +0.82 | +1.05 | +1.36 | +1.12 | +1.87 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.56 |
| 2022 | #132 | Romeo Doubs | OFF | +0.79 | +1.10 | +1.13 | +0.84 | +0.84 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.82 |
| 2022 | #140 | Zach Tom | OFF | +0.69 | +0.95 | +0.99 | +0.85 | +0.99 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.77 |
| 2020 | #192 | Jon Runyan Jr. | OFF | +0.77 | +0.74 | +1.00 | +0.67 | +1.25 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.75 |
| 2023 | #78 | Tucker Kraft | OFF | +0.32 | +0.53 | +0.59 | +0.62 | +1.60 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.56 |
| 2023 | #159 | Dontayvion Wicks | OFF | +0.69 | +0.41 | +0.49 | +0.51 | +1.19 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.36 |
| 2021 | #173 | Tedarrell Slaton | DEF | +0.94 | +0.67 | +0.91 | +0.53 | +0.53 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.34 |
| 2021 | #220 | Isaiah McDuffie | DEF | +1.23 | +0.71 | +0.84 | +0.55 | +0.33 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.33 |
| 2023 | #232 | Carrington Valentine | DEF | +0.88 | +0.84 | +1.31 | +0.48 | +0.09 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.28 |
| 2023 | #50 | Jayden Reed | OFF | +0.21 | +0.24 | -0.12 | +0.43 | +1.92 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.23 |
| 2020 | #26 | Jordan Love | OFF | +0.33 | +0.39 | -0.19 | +1.04 | +1.19 | -0.25 | -0.04 | +1.15 |
| 2021 | #62 | Josh Myers | OFF | +0.32 | +0.68 | +0.40 | +0.57 | +1.01 | -0.15 | -0.07 | +1.15 |
| 2018 | #239 | Hunter Bradley | ST | +0.83 | +0.16 | — | +0.30 | +0.94 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +1.09 |
| 2022 | #179 | Kingsley Enagbare | DEF | +1.11 | +0.41 | +1.14 | +0.44 | -0.07 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.06 |
| 2023 | #207 | Anders Carlson | ST | +0.24 | +0.46 | +1.04 | +0.46 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.03 |
| 2018 | #18 | Jaire Alexander | DEF | +0.09 | +0.54 | +0.06 | +0.19 | +0.59 | +1.29 | -0.58 | +0.98 |
| 2021 | #142 | Royce Newman | OFF | +0.63 | +0.24 | +0.55 | +0.31 | +0.68 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.94 |
| 2022 | #34 | Christian Watson | OFF | +0.17 | +0.50 | -0.29 | +0.32 | +1.18 | -0.15 | -0.06 | +0.77 |
| 2023 | #242 | Anthony Johnson | DEF | +0.18 | +0.29 | +0.75 | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.67 |
| 2022 | #92 | Sean Rhyan | OFF | +0.37 | +0.17 | -0.15 | +0.25 | +0.92 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.66 |
| 2024 | #111 | Evan Williams | DEF | +0.29 | +0.48 | +0.44 | +0.29 | +0.18 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.63 |
| 2024 | #245 | Michael Pratt | OFF | +0.19 | +0.35 | +0.52 | +0.24 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.59 |
| 2025 | #198 | Warren Brinson | DEF | +0.20 | +0.26 | +0.62 | +0.21 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.57 |
| 2023 | #116 | Colby Wooden | DEF | +0.61 | +0.29 | +0.23 | +0.21 | +0.16 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2023 | #179 | Karl Brooks | DEF | +0.83 | +0.15 | +1.10 | +0.33 | -0.58 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2018 | #174 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | OFF | +0.21 | +0.29 | +0.69 | +0.12 | +0.40 | -0.16 | -0.09 | +0.53 |
| 2019 | #150 | Kingsley Keke | DEF | +0.30 | +0.15 | -0.34 | +0.15 | +0.73 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.46 |
| 2025 | #237 | Micah Robinson | DEF | -0.02 | +0.26 | +0.41 | +0.21 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 2023 | #256 | Grant Dubose | OFF | -0.07 | +0.22 | +0.60 | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2024 | #202 | Travis Glover | OFF | +0.12 | +0.07 | +0.62 | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.37 |
| 2025 | #54 | Anthony Belton | OFF | -0.14 | -0.22 | -0.14 | -0.13 | +1.26 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 2024 | #169 | Kitan Oladapo | DEF | +0.36 | +0.04 | -0.05 | +0.14 | +0.29 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 2019 | #12 | Rashan Gary | DEF | +0.82 | +0.45 | -0.44 | +0.22 | +0.16 | +0.22 | -0.55 | +0.31 |
| 2024 | #255 | Kalen King | DEF | -0.12 | +0.17 | +0.40 | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2025 | #250 | John Williams | OFF | +0.00 | +0.10 | +0.57 | +0.07 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.29 |
| 2025 | #124 | Barryn Sorrell | DEF | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.18 | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.27 |
| 2025 | #159 | Collin Oliver | DEF | -0.12 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2022 | #22 | Quay Walker | DEF | +0.24 | +0.60 | +0.52 | +0.14 | -0.43 | -0.19 | -0.10 | +0.17 |
| 2022 | #258 | Samori Toure | OFF | +0.13 | -0.01 | +0.18 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2020 | #62 | AJ Dillon | OFF | +0.24 | -0.47 | +0.10 | +0.30 | +0.37 | -0.30 | -0.14 | +0.07 |
| 2023 | #235 | Lew Nichols | OFF | -0.32 | +0.08 | +0.18 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2024 | #163 | Jacob Monk | OFF | +0.12 | -0.13 | -0.12 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2023 | #149 | Sean Clifford | OFF | -0.08 | +0.07 | -0.25 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 2023 | #42 | Luke Musgrave | OFF | -0.01 | +0.01 | -0.68 | -0.02 | +0.31 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| 2021 | #178 | Shemar Jean-Charles | DEF | -0.03 | -0.17 | +0.01 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2024 | #45 | Edgerrin Cooper | DEF | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.13 | -0.03 | -0.39 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.17 |
| 2025 | #87 | Savion Williams | OFF | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.22 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2024 | #58 | Javon Bullard | DEF | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.05 | -0.81 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.21 |
| 2020 | #242 | Jonathan Garvin | DEF | +0.37 | -0.17 | -0.27 | -0.02 | -0.36 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2022 | #234 | Jonathan Ford | DEF | -0.41 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2024 | #25 | Jordan Morgan | OFF | -0.22 | -0.43 | -0.44 | -0.30 | +0.58 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.27 |
| 2024 | #88 | MarShawn Lloyd | OFF | -0.30 | +0.04 | -0.23 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2022 | #228 | Tariq Carpenter | DEF | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.45 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2024 | #91 | Ty'Ron Hopper | DEF | +0.27 | -0.18 | -0.35 | -0.11 | -0.31 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2018 | #248 | Kendall Donnerson | DEF | -0.58 | -0.23 | +0.44 | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.37 |
| 2018 | #172 | JK Scott | ST | -0.09 | -0.48 | +0.11 | -0.17 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.43 |
| 2019 | #21 | Darnell Savage Jr. | DEF | +0.15 | +0.55 | +0.17 | -0.20 | -0.54 | -0.59 | -0.35 | -0.55 |
| 2018 | #45 | Josh Jackson | DEF | +0.00 | -0.31 | +0.03 | -0.28 | -0.49 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.56 |
| 2018 | #232 | James Looney | DEF | -0.44 | -0.16 | -0.73 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2018 | #207 | Equanimeous St. Brown | OFF | -0.06 | -0.27 | +0.15 | -0.35 | -0.59 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.59 |
| 2020 | #236 | Vernon Scott | DEF | -0.14 | -0.23 | -1.04 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 2022 | #28 | Devonte Wyatt | DEF | +0.35 | -0.39 | -0.49 | -0.26 | -0.57 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.67 |
| 2020 | #208 | Jake Hanson | OFF | -0.36 | -0.42 | -0.28 | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2021 | #214 | Cole Van Lanen | OFF | -0.63 | -0.46 | +0.15 | -0.35 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 2019 | #185 | Ka'dar Hollman | DEF | -0.40 | -0.42 | -0.20 | -0.31 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.69 |
| 2021 | #256 | Kylin Hill | OFF | -0.35 | -0.16 | -0.98 | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 2025 | #23 | Matthew Golden | OFF | -0.29 | -0.36 | -0.41 | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 2020 | #175 | Kamal Martin | DEF | -0.52 | -0.23 | -0.90 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.81 |
| 2019 | #194 | Dexter Williams | OFF | -0.47 | -0.20 | -1.04 | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2020 | #94 | Josiah Deguara | OFF | +0.09 | -0.46 | -0.69 | -0.21 | -0.56 | -0.16 | -0.06 | -0.86 |
| 2021 | #29 | Eric Stokes | DEF | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.43 | -0.37 | -0.62 | -0.22 | -0.12 | -0.87 |
| 2019 | #226 | Ty Summers | DEF | +0.07 | -0.61 | -0.06 | -0.43 | -0.82 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.89 |
| 2018 | #133 | J'Mon Moore | OFF | -0.41 | -0.34 | -0.99 | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.92 |
| 2020 | #209 | Simon Stepaniak | OFF | -0.63 | -0.44 | -0.94 | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.03 |
| 2018 | #138 | Cole Madison | OFF | -0.72 | -0.53 | -1.13 | -0.39 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.21 |
| 2019 | #75 | Jace Sternberger | OFF | -0.53 | -0.59 | -1.65 | -0.23 | -0.36 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -1.29 |
| 2021 | #85 | Amari Rodgers | OFF | -0.30 | -0.54 | -1.23 | -0.46 | -0.76 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -1.38 |
| 2023 | #13 | Lukas Van Ness | DEF | +0.05 | -0.85 | -0.41 | -0.70 | -1.67 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -1.65 |
| 2018 | #88 | Oren Burks | DEF | -0.10 | -0.91 | -0.81 | -0.71 | -1.13 | -0.34 | -0.22 | -1.81 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.