Jerry Vainisi
CHI · Composite skill θ = +0.37 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.44 to +1.17
Evidence: 23 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 1983–1986 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.04
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1983–1986CHIGM 1983-1986; Super Bowl XX era; fired Jan 1987
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | #27 | Neal Anderson | OFF | +5.07 |
| 1983 | #64 | Dave Duerson | DEF | +3.19 |
| 1983 | #6 | Jimbo Covert | OFF | +3.18 |
| 1983 | #91 | Tom Thayer | OFF | +1.94 |
| 1983 | #33 | Mike Richardson | DEF | +1.83 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | #11 | Wilber Marshall | DEF | -1.86 |
| 1983 | #18 | Willie Gault | OFF | -1.84 |
| 1986 | #82 | David Williams | OFF | -0.77 |
| 1984 | #71 | Stefan Humphries | OFF | -0.75 |
| 1985 | #78 | James Maness | OFF | -0.74 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 23 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1986 | #27 | Neal Anderson | OFF | +1.27 | +1.35 | — | +1.87 | — | +3.97 | -0.20 | +5.07 |
| 1983 | #64 | Dave Duerson | DEF | +0.42 | +0.54 | — | +1.01 | — | +3.79 | -0.38 | +3.19 |
| 1983 | #6 | Jimbo Covert | OFF | +0.94 | +1.17 | — | +1.04 | — | +0.41 | +1.77 | +3.18 |
| 1983 | #91 | Tom Thayer | OFF | +1.02 | +1.70 | — | +0.97 | — | -0.50 | -0.28 | +1.94 |
| 1983 | #33 | Mike Richardson | DEF | +0.80 | +1.19 | — | +0.97 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | +1.83 |
| 1985 | #22 | William Perry | DEF | +0.76 | +0.93 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.62 | -0.26 | +0.88 |
| 1984 | #44 | Ron Rivera | DEF | +1.57 | +0.19 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.40 | -0.24 | +0.87 |
| 1986 | #55 | Vestee Jackson | DEF | +0.47 | +0.64 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.16 | -0.10 | +0.85 |
| 1985 | #49 | Reggie Phillips | DEF | +0.26 | -0.12 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.07 |
| 1983 | #107 | Pat Dunsmore | OFF | -0.02 | -0.28 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1986 | #194 | Bruce Jones | DEF | -0.39 | -0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1986 | #138 | Lew Barnes | OFF | -0.10 | -0.13 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1985 | #190 | Charles Bennett | DEF | -0.40 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 1986 | #166 | Jeff Powell | OFF | -0.46 | -0.02 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1986 | #110 | Paul Blair | OFF | +0.00 | -0.35 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1984 | #179 | Nakita Robertson | OFF | -0.46 | -0.02 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1984 | #98 | Tom Andrews | OFF | -0.14 | -0.47 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1985 | #105 | Kevin Butler | ST | +1.78 | -1.46 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.65 | -0.57 | -0.67 |
| 1985 | #78 | James Maness | OFF | -0.48 | -0.33 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 1984 | #71 | Stefan Humphries | OFF | -0.13 | -0.58 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 1986 | #82 | David Williams | OFF | -0.65 | -0.30 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 1983 | #18 | Willie Gault | OFF | -0.45 | +0.02 | — | -0.40 | — | -1.63 | -0.82 | -1.84 |
| 1984 | #11 | Wilber Marshall | DEF | -1.23 | -1.21 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.30 | +0.34 | -1.86 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.