Dave Gettleman
CAR · NYG · Composite skill θ = -0.38 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.25 to +0.48
Evidence: 53 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 2013–2021 · 89% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.41
- maturity discount
- +0.05
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2013–2016CAR
- 2018–2021NYGSecond team
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | #17 | Dexter Lawrence | DEF | +3.61 |
| 2014 | #92 | Trai Turner | OFF | +3.40 |
| 2019 | #171 | Darius Slayton | OFF | +2.09 |
| 2013 | #44 | Kawann Short | DEF | +1.91 |
| 2020 | #255 | Tae Crowder | DEF | +1.27 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #182 | Kenjon Barner | OFF | -1.90 |
| 2021 | #20 | Kadarius Toney | OFF | -1.64 |
| 2015 | #169 | David Mayo | DEF | -1.60 |
| 2013 | #148 | A.J. Klein | DEF | -1.59 |
| 2016 | #30 | Vernon Butler | DEF | -1.58 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 53 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2019 | #17 | Dexter Lawrence | DEF | +1.03 | +1.43 | +1.77 | +1.43 | +0.46 | +2.74 | -0.22 | +3.61 |
| 2014 | #92 | Trai Turner | OFF | +0.47 | +0.92 | +0.92 | +0.86 | +0.56 | +4.05 | -0.20 | +3.40 |
| 2019 | #171 | Darius Slayton | OFF | +1.52 | +1.53 | +2.16 | +0.98 | -0.10 | -0.12 | -0.06 | +2.09 |
| 2013 | #44 | Kawann Short | DEF | +0.90 | +0.97 | +0.96 | +0.95 | +0.28 | +0.83 | -0.11 | +1.91 |
| 2020 | #255 | Tae Crowder | DEF | +0.37 | +0.58 | +0.96 | +0.48 | +0.82 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +1.27 |
| 2014 | #128 | Tre Boston | DEF | +0.76 | +0.70 | +0.96 | +0.36 | +0.17 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +1.01 |
| 2015 | #41 | Devin Funchess | OFF | +0.53 | +0.43 | +0.74 | +0.32 | +0.71 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +1.01 |
| 2014 | #28 | Kelvin Benjamin | OFF | -0.03 | +0.22 | +0.35 | +0.12 | +0.71 | -0.12 | -0.05 | +0.50 |
| 2015 | #102 | Daryl Williams | OFF | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.18 | +0.31 | +0.45 | -0.13 | -0.07 | +0.49 |
| 2014 | #148 | Bene Benwikere | DEF | +0.07 | +0.15 | +0.88 | +0.17 | +0.07 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.47 |
| 2014 | #60 | Kony Ealy | DEF | +0.30 | -0.10 | +0.78 | +0.03 | -0.31 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.16 |
| 2016 | #62 | James Bradberry | DEF | -0.04 | +0.56 | +1.08 | -0.04 | -0.39 | -0.32 | -0.21 | +0.05 |
| 2018 | #66 | Lorenzo Carter | DEF | -0.12 | -0.01 | +0.07 | -0.01 | +0.27 | -0.20 | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| 2015 | #174 | Cameron Artis-Payne | OFF | +0.20 | -0.05 | -0.09 | +0.04 | -0.22 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| 2021 | #50 | Azeez Ojulari | DEF | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.49 | +0.00 | +0.39 | -0.18 | -0.09 | -0.12 |
| 2019 | #108 | Julian Love | DEF | +0.34 | +0.08 | +0.58 | -0.06 | -0.66 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.16 |
| 2020 | #36 | Xavier McKinney | DEF | -0.13 | +0.25 | -0.17 | -0.08 | +0.11 | -0.29 | -0.16 | -0.24 |
| 2020 | #218 | Carter Coughlin | DEF | +0.67 | -0.27 | -0.23 | -0.08 | -0.47 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 2019 | #6 | Daniel Jones | OFF | +0.31 | +0.41 | +0.29 | +0.41 | -0.91 | -0.66 | -0.12 | -0.30 |
| 2016 | #252 | Beau Sandland | OFF | -0.49 | -0.15 | -0.80 | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2020 | #110 | Darnay Holmes | DEF | +0.28 | -0.34 | -0.36 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.44 |
| 2021 | #116 | Elerson Smith | DEF | -0.33 | -0.29 | -0.26 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2020 | #183 | Cam Brown | DEF | +0.70 | -0.38 | -0.32 | -0.16 | -0.81 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.52 |
| 2014 | #204 | Tyler Gaffney | OFF | -0.49 | -0.07 | -0.64 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2013 | #14 | Star Lotulelei | DEF | -0.07 | +0.38 | -0.10 | -0.14 | -0.03 | -0.76 | -0.37 | -0.57 |
| 2020 | #150 | Shane Lemieux | OFF | -0.31 | -0.22 | -0.56 | -0.28 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| 2019 | #95 | Oshane Ximines | DEF | +0.13 | -0.39 | -0.37 | -0.18 | -0.52 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.63 |
| 2019 | #245 | Chris Slayton | DEF | -0.52 | -0.16 | -0.82 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 2020 | #247 | Chris Williamson | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | -0.62 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2019 | #143 | Ryan Connelly | DEF | -0.71 | -0.35 | +0.00 | -0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.68 |
| 2018 | #108 | Kyle Lauletta | OFF | -0.41 | -0.23 | -0.72 | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 2018 | #139 | R.J. McIntosh | DEF | -0.26 | -0.32 | -0.98 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.73 |
| 2016 | #141 | Zack Sanchez | DEF | -0.53 | -0.26 | -0.93 | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 2021 | #196 | Gary Brightwell | OFF | +0.20 | -0.25 | +0.07 | -0.25 | -1.20 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.75 |
| 2021 | #201 | Rodarius Williams | DEF | -0.47 | -0.27 | -1.17 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2019 | #232 | George Asafo-Adjei | OFF | -0.56 | -0.39 | -0.74 | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| 2020 | #238 | T.J. Brunson | DEF | -0.53 | -0.30 | -1.13 | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.95 |
| 2019 | #180 | Corey Ballentine | DEF | -0.51 | -0.52 | -0.19 | -0.44 | -0.65 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -1.04 |
| 2020 | #4 | Andrew Thomas | OFF | +0.23 | +0.21 | +0.02 | -0.21 | -1.00 | -0.81 | -0.48 | -1.08 |
| 2013 | #108 | Edmund Kugbila | OFF | -0.67 | -0.50 | -0.99 | -0.35 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.10 |
| 2018 | #34 | Will Hernandez | OFF | -0.19 | +0.01 | +0.12 | -0.30 | -0.73 | -0.75 | -0.39 | -1.11 |
| 2020 | #99 | Matt Peart | OFF | -0.03 | -0.67 | -0.86 | -0.47 | -0.59 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -1.16 |
| 2016 | #77 | Daryl Worley | DEF | -0.90 | -0.53 | -0.07 | -0.61 | -0.02 | -0.41 | -0.28 | -1.17 |
| 2019 | #30 | Deandre Baker | DEF | -0.74 | -0.47 | -0.66 | -0.53 | -0.35 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -1.20 |
| 2021 | #71 | Aaron Robinson | DEF | -0.73 | -0.54 | -1.76 | -0.42 | -0.09 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -1.36 |
| 2018 | #2 | Saquon Barkley | OFF | -0.11 | +0.09 | +0.77 | -0.22 | -0.97 | -0.32 | -1.75 | -1.39 |
| 2018 | #69 | B.J. Hill | DEF | -0.34 | -0.62 | -0.14 | -0.58 | -1.13 | -0.31 | -0.13 | -1.45 |
| 2015 | #25 | Shaq Thompson | DEF | +0.57 | +1.05 | +0.60 | +0.16 | -1.04 | -2.14 | -1.56 | -1.55 |
| 2016 | #30 | Vernon Butler | DEF | -0.18 | -0.90 | -0.51 | -0.67 | -1.03 | -0.28 | -0.12 | -1.58 |
| 2013 | #148 | A.J. Klein | DEF | -0.47 | -0.77 | -0.40 | -0.86 | -0.52 | -0.38 | -0.32 | -1.59 |
| 2015 | #169 | David Mayo | DEF | -0.04 | -0.90 | -0.54 | -0.76 | -1.13 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -1.60 |
| 2021 | #20 | Kadarius Toney | OFF | -0.76 | -0.75 | -0.89 | -0.71 | — | -0.18 | -0.07 | -1.64 |
| 2013 | #182 | Kenjon Barner | OFF | -1.05 | -0.81 | -0.81 | -0.87 | — | -0.17 | -0.12 | -1.90 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.