Scot McCloughan
SF · Composite skill θ = +0.07 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.49 to +0.64
Evidence: 42 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2005–2009 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.21
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2005–2009SF
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #11 | Patrick Willis | DEF | +10.77 |
| 2007 | #126 | Dashon Goldson | DEF | +2.97 |
| 2007 | #28 | Joe Staley | OFF | +2.47 |
| 2007 | #97 | Ray McDonald | DEF | +2.01 |
| 2006 | #140 | Parys Haralson | DEF | +1.59 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #1 | Alex Smith | OFF | -7.29 |
| 2006 | #6 | Vernon Davis | OFF | -4.15 |
| 2009 | #10 | Michael Crabtree | OFF | -2.86 |
| 2006 | #175 | Delanie Walker | OFF | -2.23 |
| 2008 | #107 | Cody Wallace | OFF | -1.97 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 42 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2007 | #11 | Patrick Willis | DEF | +1.00 | +1.52 | -0.44 | +3.18 | +0.48 | +6.10 | +10.40 | +10.77 |
| 2007 | #126 | Dashon Goldson | DEF | +0.40 | +0.68 | — | +0.42 | — | +2.02 | +2.01 | +2.97 |
| 2007 | #28 | Joe Staley | OFF | +1.73 | +2.60 | +0.11 | +2.15 | -0.12 | +1.34 | -1.40 | +2.47 |
| 2007 | #97 | Ray McDonald | DEF | +1.59 | +1.11 | +0.59 | +1.07 | +0.88 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +2.01 |
| 2006 | #140 | Parys Haralson | DEF | +0.80 | +1.05 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +1.59 |
| 2008 | #174 | Josh Morgan | OFF | +0.38 | +0.47 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.65 |
| 2005 | #94 | Adam Snyder | OFF | +1.34 | +0.67 | -0.38 | +0.29 | — | -0.25 | -0.17 | +0.62 |
| 2006 | #192 | Marcus Hudson | DEF | +0.80 | -0.03 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.60 |
| 2008 | #39 | Chilo Rachal | OFF | +0.48 | +0.28 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.53 |
| 2006 | #197 | Melvin Oliver | DEF | +0.04 | +0.39 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.48 |
| 2007 | #147 | Tarell Brown | DEF | +1.13 | +0.45 | +0.28 | +0.15 | -0.31 | -0.09 | -0.08 | +0.45 |
| 2005 | #65 | Frank Gore | OFF | +0.37 | +1.18 | -1.05 | +1.27 | -0.77 | +1.98 | -1.97 | +0.42 |
| 2005 | #248 | Patrick Estes | OFF | -0.11 | +0.02 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2005 | #205 | Derrick Johnson | DEF | +0.01 | +0.14 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2008 | #75 | Reggie Smith | DEF | +0.40 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.08 |
| 2009 | #171 | Nate Davis | OFF | -0.12 | +0.09 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2006 | #254 | Vickiel Vaughn | DEF | -0.26 | +0.06 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 2009 | #219 | Curtis Taylor | DEF | -0.07 | -0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2005 | #223 | Marcus Maxwell | OFF | -0.19 | +0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2005 | #137 | Ronald Fields | DEF | +0.33 | -0.20 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| 2005 | #215 | Daven Holly | DEF | -0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2005 | #174 | Rasheed Marshall | OFF | -0.08 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2008 | #214 | Larry Grant | DEF | +0.15 | -0.18 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2007 | #186 | Thomas Clayton | OFF | -0.41 | +0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2005 | #33 | David Baas | OFF | +0.56 | -0.02 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.39 | -0.24 | -0.31 |
| 2005 | #249 | Billy Bajema | OFF | +0.35 | -0.01 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.32 |
| 2009 | #146 | Scott McKillop | DEF | -0.19 | -0.23 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2007 | #135 | Joe Cohen | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2006 | #84 | Brandon Williams | OFF | -0.23 | -0.28 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2007 | #104 | Jay Moore | DEF | -0.57 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2007 | #76 | Jason Hill | OFF | -0.03 | -0.45 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.55 |
| 2009 | #74 | Glen Coffee | OFF | -0.38 | -0.26 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 2006 | #100 | Michael Robinson | OFF | +0.33 | -0.70 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.81 |
| 2009 | #184 | Bear Pascoe | OFF | -0.87 | -0.47 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.87 |
| 2008 | #29 | Kentwan Balmer | DEF | -0.24 | -0.66 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.95 |
| 2006 | #22 | Manny Lawson | DEF | -0.41 | -0.10 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.55 | -0.28 | -1.08 |
| 2009 | #244 | Ricky Jean-Francois | DEF | -0.11 | -0.75 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.12 |
| 2008 | #107 | Cody Wallace | OFF | -1.18 | -0.96 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -1.97 |
| 2006 | #175 | Delanie Walker | OFF | +0.02 | -0.69 | — | -1.48 | — | -0.45 | -0.38 | -2.23 |
| 2009 | #10 | Michael Crabtree | OFF | -0.41 | +0.00 | -1.19 | -0.48 | -1.02 | -1.91 | -1.26 | -2.86 |
| 2006 | #6 | Vernon Davis | OFF | +0.27 | +0.85 | -1.52 | -0.66 | -0.76 | -3.35 | -3.25 | -4.15 |
| 2005 | #1 | Alex Smith | OFF | -1.22 | -1.21 | — | -2.32 | — | -5.37 | -2.14 | -7.29 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.