Ron Rivera
WAS · Composite skill θ = -0.13 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.52 to +1.25
Evidence: 33 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2020–2023 · 57% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.19
- maturity discount
- +0.10
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2020–2023WASCoach with final say
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | #216 | Kamren Curl | DEF | +1.42 |
| 2022 | #144 | Sam Howell | OFF | +1.42 |
| 2020 | #229 | James Smith-Williams | DEF | +1.28 |
| 2021 | #225 | Camaron Cheeseman | ST | +0.85 |
| 2022 | #98 | Brian Robinson Jr. | OFF | +0.84 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #47 | Phidarian Mathis | DEF | -1.38 |
| 2022 | #16 | Jahan Dotson | OFF | -1.35 |
| 2023 | #16 | Emmanuel Forbes | DEF | -1.32 |
| 2020 | #142 | Antonio Gandy-Golden | OFF | -1.06 |
| 2020 | #2 | Chase Young | DEF | -0.99 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 33 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2020 | #216 | Kamren Curl | DEF | +0.65 | +1.04 | +1.13 | +0.49 | +0.55 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.42 |
| 2022 | #144 | Sam Howell | OFF | +0.33 | +0.59 | +0.89 | +0.58 | +1.08 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.42 |
| 2020 | #229 | James Smith-Williams | DEF | +0.76 | +0.54 | +0.92 | +0.45 | +0.66 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.28 |
| 2021 | #225 | Camaron Cheeseman | ST | +0.53 | +0.06 | -0.67 | +0.22 | +1.60 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.85 |
| 2022 | #98 | Brian Robinson Jr. | OFF | +0.23 | +0.69 | +0.27 | +0.39 | +0.61 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.84 |
| 2021 | #51 | Samuel Cosmi | OFF | +0.52 | +0.66 | +0.38 | +0.46 | -0.09 | -0.18 | -0.08 | +0.58 |
| 2022 | #230 | Chris Paul | OFF | +0.36 | +0.33 | +0.25 | +0.22 | +0.15 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.49 |
| 2021 | #163 | Darrick Forrest | DEF | +0.42 | +0.27 | +0.04 | +0.18 | +0.13 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.38 |
| 2023 | #193 | Chris Rodriguez | OFF | +0.46 | +0.22 | +0.17 | +0.19 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.35 |
| 2020 | #66 | Antonio Gibson | OFF | +0.28 | +0.13 | +0.48 | +0.36 | +0.11 | -0.28 | -0.13 | +0.33 |
| 2021 | #124 | John Bates | OFF | +1.11 | +0.50 | +0.87 | +0.09 | -1.00 | -0.08 | -0.03 | +0.33 |
| 2021 | #74 | Benjamin St-Juste | DEF | +0.33 | +0.61 | +0.49 | +0.07 | -0.32 | -0.11 | -0.06 | +0.28 |
| 2023 | #233 | Andre Jones | DEF | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.35 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 2022 | #240 | Christian Holmes | DEF | +0.29 | -0.05 | -0.23 | +0.07 | +0.26 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 2023 | #47 | Quan Martin | DEF | +0.40 | +0.51 | +0.36 | +0.06 | -0.81 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.00 |
| 2023 | #137 | K.J. Henry | DEF | -0.23 | -0.05 | +0.16 | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2022 | #113 | Percy Butler | DEF | +0.83 | +0.18 | +0.03 | +0.06 | -0.82 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| 2020 | #162 | Khaleke Hudson | DEF | +0.61 | -0.08 | +0.15 | -0.06 | -0.58 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| 2022 | #149 | Cole Turner | OFF | -0.12 | -0.22 | -0.29 | +0.04 | -0.40 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| 2021 | #246 | Shaka Toney | DEF | +0.05 | -0.19 | -0.66 | -0.09 | -0.27 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2021 | #258 | Dax Milne | OFF | +0.12 | -0.15 | -0.74 | -0.17 | -0.33 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 2020 | #156 | Keith Ismael | OFF | -0.30 | -0.40 | -0.65 | -0.31 | +0.00 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.65 |
| 2021 | #82 | Dyami Brown | OFF | +0.59 | -0.30 | -0.31 | -0.25 | -0.91 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.68 |
| 2021 | #240 | William Bradley-King | DEF | -0.58 | -0.32 | -0.27 | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.72 |
| 2020 | #108 | Saahdiq Charles | OFF | -0.20 | -0.33 | -0.62 | -0.31 | -0.17 | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.73 |
| 2021 | #19 | Jamin Davis | DEF | -0.13 | -0.17 | -0.54 | -0.34 | -0.20 | -0.32 | -0.18 | -0.80 |
| 2023 | #118 | Braeden Daniels | OFF | -0.54 | -0.38 | -0.80 | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.88 |
| 2023 | #97 | Ricky Stromberg | OFF | -0.50 | -0.45 | -0.91 | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.98 |
| 2020 | #2 | Chase Young | DEF | -0.70 | -0.80 | -0.96 | -0.93 | +0.50 | +0.43 | -0.34 | -0.99 |
| 2020 | #142 | Antonio Gandy-Golden | OFF | -0.50 | -0.31 | -1.26 | -0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.06 |
| 2023 | #16 | Emmanuel Forbes | DEF | -0.50 | -0.68 | -0.93 | -0.66 | -0.39 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -1.32 |
| 2022 | #16 | Jahan Dotson | OFF | -0.41 | -0.27 | -0.16 | -0.60 | -1.21 | -0.23 | -0.09 | -1.35 |
| 2022 | #47 | Phidarian Mathis | DEF | -0.36 | -0.63 | -0.92 | -0.44 | -0.92 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -1.38 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.