Jimmy Johnson
MIA · Composite skill θ = +1.26 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.50 to +2.02
Evidence: 44 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 1996–1999 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.64
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1996–1999MIAHC with final say
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #154 | Zach Thomas | DEF | +15.70 |
| 1997 | #73 | Jason Taylor | DEF | +12.29 |
| 1997 | #44 | Sam Madison | DEF | +7.35 |
| 1998 | #44 | Patrick Surtain | DEF | +3.98 |
| 1997 | #92 | Derrick Rodgers | DEF | +2.21 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #72 | Grey Ruegamer | OFF | -3.05 |
| 1997 | #15 | Yatil Green | OFF | -1.50 |
| 1998 | #29 | John Avery | OFF | -1.31 |
| 1997 | #96 | Brent Smith | OFF | -0.91 |
| 1998 | #79 | Brad Jackson | DEF | -0.82 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 44 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #154 | Zach Thomas | DEF | +1.85 | +2.99 | — | +4.38 | — | +7.35 | +10.45 | +15.70 |
| 1997 | #73 | Jason Taylor | DEF | +2.09 | +2.89 | — | +3.95 | — | +5.77 | +5.94 | +12.29 |
| 1997 | #44 | Sam Madison | DEF | +1.09 | +1.72 | — | +2.20 | — | +3.71 | +3.76 | +7.35 |
| 1998 | #44 | Patrick Surtain | DEF | +0.60 | +0.67 | — | +1.05 | — | +2.80 | +1.77 | +3.98 |
| 1997 | #92 | Derrick Rodgers | DEF | +1.01 | +1.61 | — | +0.98 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | +2.21 |
| 1996 | #80 | Karim Abdul-Jabbar | OFF | +0.60 | +1.07 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.60 |
| 1996 | #189 | Shawn Wooden | DEF | +1.32 | +0.45 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | +1.28 |
| 1996 | #20 | Daryl Gardener | DEF | +0.50 | +0.89 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.19 | -0.09 | +1.10 |
| 1996 | #230 | Jeff Buckey | OFF | +0.66 | +0.26 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.91 |
| 1998 | #49 | Kenny Mixon | DEF | +0.33 | +0.62 | — | +0.44 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.86 |
| 1999 | #43 | Rob Konrad | OFF | +1.02 | +0.99 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.80 |
| 1999 | #232 | Jermaine Haley | DEF | +0.61 | +0.18 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.70 |
| 1999 | #192 | Brent Bartholomew | ST | -0.28 | +0.35 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 1996 | #134 | Jerris McPhail | OFF | +0.10 | +0.03 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.29 |
| 1998 | #172 | John Dutton | OFF | -0.02 | +0.18 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 1996 | #251 | Brice Hunter | OFF | -0.20 | +0.12 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 1999 | #134 | Cecil Collins | OFF | -0.26 | +0.14 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 1997 | #203 | Hudhaifa Ismaeli | DEF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1997 | #170 | Brian Manning | OFF | -0.17 | +0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1997 | #177 | Ed Perry | OFF | +1.28 | -0.49 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.06 |
| 1996 | #150 | Shane Burton | DEF | +0.14 | -0.23 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| 1998 | #102 | Lorenzo Bromell | DEF | +0.38 | -0.46 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| 1997 | #157 | Nicholas Lopez | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 1999 | #244 | Joe Wong | OFF | -0.24 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 1997 | #173 | Mike Crawford | DEF | -0.26 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1998 | #210 | Jim Bundren | OFF | -0.29 | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 1999 | #39 | J.J. Johnson | OFF | +0.09 | -0.31 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.31 |
| 1998 | #171 | Nathan Strikwerda | OFF | -0.36 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1996 | #113 | Kirk Pointer | DEF | -0.49 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1999 | #142 | Bryan Jones | DEF | -0.50 | -0.15 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1996 | #118 | Stanley Pritchett | OFF | -0.06 | +0.31 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.48 |
| 1997 | #149 | Barron Tanner | DEF | -0.08 | -0.38 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1998 | #143 | Scott Shaw | OFF | -0.42 | -0.25 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1996 | #125 | LaCurtis Jones | DEF | -0.54 | -0.19 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1997 | #121 | Jerome Daniels | OFF | -0.48 | -0.31 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1996 | #79 | Dorian Brew | DEF | -0.60 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1998 | #82 | Larry Shannon | OFF | -0.52 | -0.24 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1997 | #93 | Ronnie Ward | DEF | -0.53 | -0.29 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1997 | #166 | John Fiala | DEF | -0.64 | -0.27 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 1998 | #79 | Brad Jackson | DEF | -0.68 | -0.35 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.82 |
| 1997 | #96 | Brent Smith | OFF | -0.26 | -0.56 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.91 |
| 1998 | #29 | John Avery | OFF | -0.63 | -0.72 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -1.31 |
| 1997 | #15 | Yatil Green | OFF | -0.72 | -0.78 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.50 |
| 1999 | #72 | Grey Ruegamer | OFF | -1.68 | -1.41 | — | -1.29 | — | -0.26 | -0.17 | -3.05 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.