John Beake
DEN · Composite skill θ = +0.36 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.35 to +1.08
Evidence: 63 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 1985–1994 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.17
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1985–1993DENNamed GM 1985 with Reeves as VP HC; Director Player Personnel 1981-1984
- 1994–1994DENGM under HC Wade Phillips
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #218 | Tom Nalen | OFF | +10.24 |
| 1990 | #192 | Shannon Sharpe | OFF | +9.80 |
| 1989 | #20 | Steve Atwater | DEF | +8.48 |
| 1985 | #54 | Simon Fletcher | DEF | +3.24 |
| 1986 | #161 | Mark Jackson | OFF | +2.17 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | #98 | Jeff Robinson | OFF | -6.15 |
| 1992 | #25 | Tommy Maddox | OFF | -5.09 |
| 1991 | #61 | Keith Traylor | DEF | -3.91 |
| 1991 | #4 | Mike Croel | DEF | -1.47 |
| 1988 | #26 | Ted Gregory | DEF | -1.40 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 63 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1994 | #218 | Tom Nalen | OFF | +2.42 | +3.33 | — | +3.81 | — | +3.03 | +4.06 | +10.24 |
| 1990 | #192 | Shannon Sharpe | OFF | +1.78 | +2.05 | — | +2.24 | — | +2.94 | +8.36 | +9.80 |
| 1989 | #20 | Steve Atwater | DEF | +1.55 | +2.41 | — | +2.39 | — | +4.58 | +3.65 | +8.48 |
| 1985 | #54 | Simon Fletcher | DEF | +2.03 | +2.29 | — | +1.65 | — | -0.69 | -0.46 | +3.24 |
| 1986 | #161 | Mark Jackson | OFF | +1.16 | +1.14 | — | +1.10 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | +2.17 |
| 1986 | #151 | Orson Mobley | OFF | +0.96 | +0.65 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.30 |
| 1986 | #104 | Jim Juriga | OFF | +0.47 | +0.74 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.24 |
| 1987 | #86 | Michael Brooks | DEF | +0.40 | +0.49 | — | +0.30 | — | +0.81 | -0.19 | +1.05 |
| 1990 | #111 | Jeff Davidson | OFF | +0.53 | +0.47 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 1990 | #136 | Le-Lo Lang | DEF | +0.85 | -0.08 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.60 |
| 1989 | #47 | Warren Powers | DEF | +0.31 | +0.32 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 1985 | #31 | Vance Johnson | OFF | +0.94 | +0.53 | — | +0.65 | — | -1.06 | -0.54 | +0.58 |
| 1987 | #111 | Marc Munford | DEF | +0.52 | +0.16 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 1989 | #180 | Mel Bratton | OFF | +0.38 | +0.20 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.41 |
| 1991 | #89 | Derek Russell | OFF | +0.24 | +0.39 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.38 |
| 1993 | #69 | Rondell Jones | DEF | +0.86 | -0.24 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 1988 | #174 | Pat Kelly | OFF | +0.33 | -0.06 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 1991 | #115 | Greg Lewis | OFF | +0.25 | +0.07 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 1993 | #182 | Tony Kimbrough | OFF | +0.33 | +0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 1992 | #137 | Frank Robinson | DEF | +0.23 | -0.04 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 1985 | #26 | Steve Sewell | OFF | +0.92 | -0.68 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.27 | -0.13 | +0.16 |
| 1987 | #27 | Ricky Nattiel | OFF | +0.61 | -0.37 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | +0.12 |
| 1990 | #164 | Ronnie Haliburton | OFF | -0.03 | -0.09 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 1994 | #51 | Allen Aldridge | DEF | +0.15 | +0.21 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.15 | -0.10 | +0.05 |
| 1994 | #212 | Butler By'not'e | OFF | -0.08 | +0.12 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 1993 | #169 | Clarence Williams | OFF | -0.41 | -0.06 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1987 | #194 | Wilbur Strozier | OFF | -0.42 | -0.06 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 1992 | #170 | Ron Geater | DEF | -0.29 | +0.00 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 1992 | #193 | Jon Bostick | OFF | -0.31 | +0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.14 |
| 1986 | #134 | Tony Colorito | DEF | -0.14 | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 1993 | #154 | Melvin Bonner | OFF | -0.31 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1985 | #194 | Dallas Cameron | DEF | -0.39 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 1987 | #167 | Warren Marshall | OFF | -0.42 | -0.01 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1989 | #97 | Jake McCullough | DEF | -0.18 | -0.21 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1991 | #142 | Nick Subis | OFF | -0.06 | -0.27 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1989 | #41 | Doug Widell | OFF | -0.08 | +0.17 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.32 | -0.18 | -0.31 |
| 1989 | #152 | Anthony Stafford | OFF | -0.42 | -0.06 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1989 | #69 | Darrell Hamilton | OFF | -0.17 | -0.25 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1988 | #136 | Corris Ervin | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1992 | #181 | Jim Johnson | OFF | -0.36 | -0.19 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1993 | #126 | Kevin Williams | OFF | -0.48 | -0.05 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1988 | #192 | Garry Frank | OFF | -0.37 | -0.20 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1985 | #110 | Keli McGregor | OFF | -0.59 | -0.27 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1986 | #188 | Ray Phillips | DEF | -0.48 | -0.12 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1992 | #110 | Chuck Johnson | OFF | -0.13 | -0.35 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1990 | #52 | Alton Montgomery | DEF | +0.11 | -0.47 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.49 |
| 1988 | #79 | Kevin Guidry | DEF | -0.31 | -0.31 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1994 | #123 | Randy Fuller | DEF | -0.42 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1985 | #139 | Billy Hinson | OFF | -0.52 | -0.33 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1990 | #82 | Jeroy Robinson | DEF | -0.62 | -0.35 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.82 |
| 1991 | #30 | Reggie Johnson | OFF | -0.22 | -0.40 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.15 | -0.06 | -0.88 |
| 1992 | #54 | Shane Dronett | DEF | -0.26 | -0.34 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.90 |
| 1988 | #45 | Gerald Perry | OFF | -0.44 | -0.42 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.95 |
| 1993 | #43 | Glyn Milburn | OFF | -0.43 | -0.98 | — | -0.52 | — | +0.74 | -0.20 | -0.96 |
| 1993 | #70 | Jason Elam | ST | +2.30 | -2.44 | — | -0.36 | — | +0.63 | -1.80 | -1.02 |
| 1994 | #210 | Keith Burns | DEF | +1.91 | -1.49 | — | -1.11 | — | -0.21 | -0.21 | -1.11 |
| 1989 | #134 | Darren Carrington | DEF | -0.70 | -0.66 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.22 |
| 1993 | #11 | Dan Williams | DEF | -0.46 | -0.35 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.25 | -0.12 | -1.23 |
| 1988 | #26 | Ted Gregory | DEF | -0.89 | -0.67 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.40 |
| 1991 | #4 | Mike Croel | DEF | -0.32 | -0.27 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.48 | -0.39 | -1.47 |
| 1991 | #61 | Keith Traylor | DEF | -1.17 | -0.98 | — | -1.66 | — | -1.42 | -0.94 | -3.91 |
| 1992 | #25 | Tommy Maddox | OFF | -1.83 | -2.13 | — | -2.35 | — | -1.25 | -0.27 | -5.09 |
| 1993 | #98 | Jeff Robinson | OFF | -1.81 | -2.70 | — | -2.82 | — | -1.24 | -0.91 | -6.15 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.