Charley Casserly
WAS · Composite skill θ = -0.26 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.98 to +0.46
Evidence: 66 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 1990–1999 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.06
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1990–1999WASGM 1989-1999; resigned May 1999
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #102 | Stephen Davis | OFF | +2.24 |
| 1994 | #97 | Joe Patton | OFF | +1.94 |
| 1999 | #37 | Jon Jansen | OFF | +1.80 |
| 1997 | #115 | Albert Connell | OFF | +1.64 |
| 1993 | #101 | Sterling Palmer | DEF | +1.54 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | #4 | Desmond Howard | OFF | -4.86 |
| 1999 | #7 | Champ Bailey | DEF | -3.45 |
| 1993 | #160 | Frank Wycheck | OFF | -2.21 |
| 1997 | #162 | Brad Badger | OFF | -1.64 |
| 1996 | #30 | Andre Johnson | OFF | -1.47 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 66 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #102 | Stephen Davis | OFF | +0.59 | +0.84 | — | +0.72 | — | +1.84 | -0.23 | +2.24 |
| 1994 | #97 | Joe Patton | OFF | +0.93 | +1.11 | — | +0.93 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.94 |
| 1999 | #37 | Jon Jansen | OFF | +0.99 | +1.57 | — | +1.06 | — | -0.65 | -0.43 | +1.80 |
| 1997 | #115 | Albert Connell | OFF | +0.74 | +0.76 | — | +0.90 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.64 |
| 1993 | #101 | Sterling Palmer | DEF | +0.67 | +1.05 | — | +0.69 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.54 |
| 1995 | #137 | Jamie Asher | OFF | +0.69 | +0.82 | — | +0.77 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.51 |
| 1996 | #138 | Leomont Evans | DEF | +1.00 | +0.69 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.41 |
| 1993 | #155 | Darryl Morrison | DEF | +0.76 | +0.73 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 1991 | #76 | Ricky Ervins | OFF | +0.86 | +0.07 | — | +0.74 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.18 |
| 1998 | #191 | David Terrell | DEF | +0.76 | +0.56 | — | +0.49 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +1.13 |
| 1994 | #31 | Tre' Johnson | OFF | +0.53 | +0.41 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.33 | -0.20 | +0.78 |
| 1994 | #163 | Dexter Nottage | DEF | +0.78 | +0.13 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.78 |
| 1990 | #130 | Brian Mitchell | OFF | +1.36 | -1.41 | — | -0.25 | — | +0.38 | +1.62 | +0.73 |
| 1996 | #174 | Kelvin Kinney | DEF | +0.10 | +0.38 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.56 |
| 1995 | #152 | Rich Owens | DEF | +0.03 | +0.38 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.45 |
| 1997 | #51 | Greg Jones | DEF | +0.54 | +0.08 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.33 |
| 1999 | #181 | Jeff Hall | ST | -0.35 | +0.33 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 1995 | #68 | Darryl Pounds | DEF | +0.84 | -0.39 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.26 |
| 1998 | #140 | Mark Fischer | OFF | +0.10 | +0.18 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 1997 | #132 | Jamel Williams | DEF | +0.41 | -0.10 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 1990 | #46 | Andre Collins | DEF | -0.07 | +0.60 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.42 | -0.29 | +0.18 |
| 1993 | #45 | Reggie Brooks | OFF | -0.04 | +0.04 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.07 |
| 1996 | #250 | DeAndre Maxwell | OFF | -0.20 | +0.12 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 1998 | #69 | Skip Hicks | OFF | +0.05 | -0.03 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| 1992 | #168 | Ray Rowe | OFF | -0.33 | -0.07 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 1997 | #140 | Keith Thibodeaux | DEF | -0.06 | -0.08 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1999 | #217 | Tim Alexander | OFF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1995 | #4 | Michael Westbrook | OFF | +0.32 | +0.22 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.46 | -0.30 | -0.05 |
| 1992 | #112 | Chris Hakel | OFF | -0.18 | +0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 1992 | #196 | Calvin Holmes | DEF | -0.32 | +0.02 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 1991 | #159 | Dennis Ransom | OFF | -0.45 | -0.09 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1991 | #17 | Bobby Wilson | DEF | +0.09 | -0.11 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| 1998 | #170 | Patrick Palmer | OFF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1992 | #47 | Shane Collins | DEF | +0.00 | -0.16 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1998 | #206 | Antwaune Ponds | DEF | -0.30 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1993 | #80 | Ed Bunn | ST | -0.61 | +0.05 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1996 | #215 | Jeremy Asher | DEF | -0.35 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1990 | #160 | Kent Wells | DEF | -0.40 | -0.03 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.22 |
| 1998 | #48 | Stephen Alexander | OFF | -0.31 | -0.08 | — | -0.41 | — | +0.84 | -0.12 | -0.24 |
| 1994 | #105 | Kurt Haws | OFF | -0.42 | -0.22 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1994 | #68 | Tydus Winans | OFF | -0.07 | -0.28 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1995 | #176 | Brian Thure | OFF | -0.26 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1991 | #188 | Keith Cash | OFF | -0.59 | -0.21 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1990 | #76 | Mohammed Elewonibi | OFF | -0.36 | -0.14 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 1999 | #165 | Derek Smith | OFF | -0.38 | -0.21 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1990 | #109 | Rico Labbe | DEF | -0.53 | -0.18 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1990 | #86 | Cary Conklin | OFF | -0.35 | -0.19 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.47 |
| 1995 | #103 | Larry Jones | OFF | -0.54 | -0.12 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1999 | #107 | Nate Stimson | DEF | -0.59 | -0.24 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1993 | #71 | Rick Hamilton | DEF | -0.30 | -0.39 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 1995 | #37 | Cory Raymer | OFF | -0.12 | +0.16 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.64 | -0.41 | -0.71 |
| 1993 | #17 | Tom Carter | DEF | -0.25 | +0.12 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.39 | -0.28 | -0.74 |
| 1997 | #148 | Twan Russell | DEF | -0.23 | -0.48 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 1998 | #113 | Shawn Barber | DEF | -0.43 | -0.20 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.16 | -0.13 | -0.77 |
| 1993 | #128 | Greg Huntington | OFF | -0.45 | -0.47 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.78 |
| 1995 | #226 | Scott Turner | DEF | -0.09 | -0.65 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.85 |
| 1997 | #17 | Kenard Lang | DEF | -0.13 | -0.24 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.48 | -0.25 | -0.92 |
| 1992 | #74 | Paul Siever | OFF | -0.64 | -0.49 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.93 |
| 1997 | #80 | Derek Smith | DEF | -0.63 | +0.02 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.47 | -0.39 | -1.13 |
| 1994 | #3 | Heath Shuler | OFF | -0.23 | -0.63 | — | -0.89 | — | -0.06 | -0.01 | -1.36 |
| 1994 | #197 | Gus Frerotte | OFF | -0.97 | -0.49 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.22 | -0.06 | -1.46 |
| 1996 | #30 | Andre Johnson | OFF | -0.83 | -0.78 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.47 |
| 1997 | #162 | Brad Badger | OFF | -0.64 | -0.75 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.15 | -0.12 | -1.64 |
| 1993 | #160 | Frank Wycheck | OFF | -1.27 | -0.98 | — | -0.95 | — | -0.17 | -0.10 | -2.21 |
| 1999 | #7 | Champ Bailey | DEF | -1.31 | -0.80 | — | -0.94 | — | +0.92 | -3.81 | -3.45 |
| 1992 | #4 | Desmond Howard | OFF | -1.13 | -1.68 | — | -2.05 | — | -1.64 | -1.17 | -4.86 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.